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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): April 20, 2010
MGIC Investment Corporation
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
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Wisconsin
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1-10816
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39-1486475 |
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(State or other
jurisdiction of
incorporation)
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(Commission File
Number)
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(IRS Employer
Identification No.) |
MGIC Plaza, 250 East Kilbourn Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53202
(Address of principal executive offices, including zip code)
(414) 347-6480
(Registrants telephone number, including area code)
Not Applicable
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the
filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
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Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) |
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Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) |
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Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR
240.14d-2(b)) |
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Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR
240.13e-4(c) |
Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition
MGIC Investment Corporation (the Company) issued a press release on April 20, 2010
announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2010 and certain other
information. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference
herein.
The Company will hold a webcast on April 20, 2010 at 9:00 a.m. ET to allow securities
analysts and shareholders the opportunity to hear management discuss the Companys quarterly
results. A copy of the script is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure
The investor presentation furnished as Exhibit 99.3 is incorporated by reference herein.
Item 8.01. Other Events.
The Company risk factors filed as Exhibit 99.4 are incorporated by reference herein.
Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits
(d) Exhibits. The following exhibits are being furnished or filed herewith:
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(99.1) |
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Press Release dated April 20, 2010* |
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(99.2) |
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Script for Conference Call to be held on April 20, 2010* |
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(99.3) |
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Investor Presentation* |
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(99.4) |
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Company Risk Factors |
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Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the Companys Press Release, Script
Conference Call and Investor Presentation are furnished and not filed. |
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly
caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
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MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION
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Date: April 20, 2010 |
By: |
/s/ Timothy J. Mattke
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Timothy J. Mattke |
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Vice President and Controller |
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EXHIBIT INDEX
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Exhibit No. |
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Description |
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(99.1)
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Press Release dated April 20, 2010. (Pursuant to General
Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, this Press Release is furnished
and is not filed.) |
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(99.2)
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Script for conference call to be held on April 20, 2010.
(Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, this Script
is furnished and is not filed.) |
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(99.3)
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Investor Presentation. (Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 to
Form 8-K, this Investor Presentation is furnished and is not
filed.) |
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(99.4)
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Company Risk Factors. |
exv99w1
Exhibit 99.1
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Investor Contact:
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Michael J. Zimmerman, Investor Relations, (414) 347-6596, mike_zimmerman@mgic.com |
Media Contact:
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Katie Monfre, Corporate Communications, (414) 347-2650, katie_monfre@mgic.com |
MGIC Investment Corporation
Reports First Quarter 2010 Results
MILWAUKEE
(April 20, 2010) MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) today reported a net loss
for the quarter ended March 31, 2010 of $150.1 million, compared with a net loss of $184.6 million
for the same quarter a year ago. Diluted loss per share was $1.20 for the quarter ending March 31,
2010, compared to diluted loss per share of $1.49 for the same quarter a year ago.
Total revenues for the first quarter were $370.8 million, compared with $435.2 million in the first
quarter last year. Net premiums written for the quarter were $256.1 million, compared with $347.5
million for the same period last year.
New insurance written in the first quarter was $1.8 billion, compared to $6.4 billion in the first
quarter of 2009. In addition, the Home Affordable Refinance Program accounted for $684.8 million of
insurance that is not included in the new insurance written total due to these transactions being
treated as a modification of the coverage on existing insurance in force. Persistency, or the
percentage of insurance remaining in force from one year prior, was 85.6 percent at March 31, 2010,
compared with 84.7 percent at December 31, 2009, and 85.1 percent at March 31, 2009.
As of March 31, 2010, MGICs primary insurance in force was $207.1 billion, compared with $212.2
billion at December 31, 2009, and $223.9 billion at March 31, 2009. The fair value of MGIC
Investment Corporations investment portfolio, cash and cash equivalents was $8.3 billion at March
31, 2010, compared with $8.4 billion at December 31, 2009, and $8.6 billion at March 31, 2009.
At March 31, 2010, the percentage of loans that were delinquent, excluding bulk loans, was 15.38
percent, compared with 15.46 percent at December 31, 2009, and 10.59 percent at March 31, 2009.
Including bulk loans, the percentage of loans that were delinquent at March 31, 2010 was 18.14
percent, compared to 18.41 percent at December 31, 2009, and 13.51 percent at March 31, 2009.
Losses incurred in the first quarter were $454.5 million down from $757.9 million reported for the
same period last year primarily due to a decrease in the default inventory. Losses incurred were
materially mitigated by rescissions in both periods. Net underwriting and other expenses were
$59.9 million in the first quarter as compared to $62.5 million reported for the same period last
year.
Wall Street Bulk transactions, as of March 31, 2010, included approximately 97,500 loans with
insurance in force of approximately $15.8 billion and risk in force of approximately $4.6 billion.
The $180 million premium deficiency reserve as of March 31, 2010 reflects the present value of
expected future losses and expenses that exceeded the present value of expected future premium and
already established loss reserves. Within the premium deficiency calculation, our present value of
expected future paid losses and expenses, net of expected future premium was $1,590 million, offset
by already established loss reserves of $1,410 million.
Webcast Details
MGIC Investment Corporation will hold a conference call today, April 20, 2010, at 9 a.m. ET to
allow securities analysts and shareholders the opportunity to hear management discuss the companys
quarterly results. The conference call number is 1866 837 9787. The call is being webcast and can be accessed
at the companys website at http://mtg.mgic.com. The webcast is also being distributed over CCBNs
Investor Distribution Network to both institutional and individual investors. Investors can listen
to the call through CCBNs individual investor center at www.companyboardroom.com or by visiting
any of the investor sites in CCBNs Individual Investor Network. The webcast will be available for
replay on the companys website through May 19, 2010 under Investor Information.
About MGIC
MGIC (www.mgic.com), the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corporation, is the nations
leading provider of private mortgage insurance coverage with $207.1 billion primary insurance in
force covering 1.3 million mortgages as of March 31, 2010. MGIC serves lenders throughout the
United States, Puerto Rico, and other locations helping families achieve homeownership sooner by
making affordable low-down-payment mortgages a reality.
This press release, which includes certain additional statistical and other information, including
non-GAAP financial information and a supplement that contains various portfolio statistics are both
available on the Companys website at http://mtg.mgic.com under Investor Information,
Presentations/Webcasts.
Safe Harbor Statement
Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors:
Our actual results could be affected by the risk factors below. These risk factors should be
reviewed in connection with this press release and our periodic reports to the Securities and
Exchange Commission. These risk factors may also cause actual results to differ materially from the
results contemplated by forward looking statements that we may make. Forward looking statements
consist of statements which relate to matters other than historical fact, including matters that
inherently refer to future events. Among others, statements that include words such as believe,
anticipate, will or expect, or words of similar import, are forward looking statements. We
are not undertaking any obligation to update any forward looking statements or other statements we
may make even though these statements may be affected by events or circumstances occurring after
the forward looking statements or other statements were made. No investor should rely on the fact
that such statements are current at any time other than the time at which this press release was
issued.
Even though our plan to write new insurance in MIC has received approval from the Office of
the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin (OCI) and the GSEs, because MGIC is not
expected to meet statutory risk-to-capital requirements to write new business in various states, we
cannot guarantee that the implementation of our plan will allow us to continue to write new
insurance on an uninterrupted basis.
The insurance laws or regulations of 17 states, including Wisconsin, require a mortgage
insurer to maintain a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to the risk in force (or a
similar measure) in order for the mortgage insurer to continue to write new business. We refer to
these requirements as the risk-to-capital requirement. While formulations of minimum capital may
vary in certain states, the most common measure applied allows for a maximum permitted
risk-to-capital ratio of 25 to 1. At December 31, 2009, MGICs risk-to-capital ratio was 19.4 to
1. Based upon internal company estimates, it is likely that MGICs risk-to-capital ratio over the
next few years will materially exceed 25 to 1.
In December 2009, the OCI issued an order waiving, until December 31, 2011, the minimum
risk-to-capital ratio. MGIC has also applied for waivers in all other jurisdictions that have
risk-to-capital requirements. MGIC has received waivers from some of these states. These waivers
expire at various times, with the earliest expiration being December 31, 2010. Some jurisdictions
have denied the request because a waiver is not authorized under the jurisdictions statutes or
regulations and others may deny the request on other grounds. The OCI and other state insurance
departments, in their sole discretion, may modify, terminate or extend their waivers. If the OCI or
other state insurance department modifies or terminates its waiver, or if it fails to renew its
waiver after expiration, MGIC would be prevented from writing new business anywhere, in the case of
the waiver from the OCI, or in the particular jurisdiction, in the case of the other waivers, if
MGICs risk-to-capital ratio exceeds 25 to 1 unless MGIC raised additional capital to enable it to
comply with the risk-to-capital requirement. New insurance written in the states that have
risk-to-capital ratio limits represented approximately 50% of new insurance written in 2009. If we
were prevented from writing new business, our insurance operations would be in run-off, meaning no
new loans would be insured but loans previously insured would continue to be covered, with premiums
continuing to be received and losses continuing to be paid, on those loans, until we either met the
applicable risk-to-capital requirement or obtained a necessary waiver to allow us to once again
write new business.
We cannot assure you that the OCI or any other jurisdiction that has granted a waiver of its
risk-to-capital ratio requirements will not modify or revoke the waiver, that it will renew the
waiver when it expires or that we could raise additional capital to comply with the risk-to-capital
requirement. Depending on the circumstances, the amount of additional capital we might need could
be substantial. See the risk factor titled Your ownership in our company may be diluted by
additional capital that we raise or if the holders of our outstanding convertible debentures
convert their debentures into shares of our common stock.
We are in the final stages of implementing a plan to write new mortgage insurance in MIC in
selected jurisdictions in order to address the likelihood that in the future MGIC will not meet the
minimum regulatory capital requirements discussed above and may not be able to obtain appropriate
waivers of these requirements in all jurisdictions in which minimum requirements are present. In
December 2009, the OCI also approved a transaction under which MIC will be eligible to write new
mortgage guaranty insurance policies only in jurisdictions where MGIC does not meet minimum capital
requirements similar to those waived by the OCI and does not obtain a waiver of those requirements
from that jurisdictions regulatory authority. MIC has received the necessary approvals to write
business in all of the jurisdictions in which MGIC would be prohibited from continuing to write new
business due to MGICs failure to meet applicable regulatory capital requirements and obtain
waivers of those requirements.
In October 2009, we, MGIC and MIC entered into an agreement with Fannie Mae (the Fannie Mae
Agreement) under which MGIC agreed to contribute $200 million to MIC (which MGIC has done) and
Fannie Mae approved MIC as an eligible mortgage insurer through December 31, 2011 subject to the
terms of the Fannie Mae Agreement. Under the Fannie Mae Agreement, MIC will be eligible to write
mortgage insurance only in those 16 other jurisdictions in which MGIC cannot write new insurance
due to MGICs failure to meet regulatory capital requirements and if MGIC fails to obtain relief
from those requirements or a specified waiver of them. The Fannie Mae Agreement, including certain
restrictions imposed on us, MGIC and MIC, is summarized more fully in, and included as an exhibit
to, our Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) on October 16, 2009.
On February 11, 2010, Freddie Mac notified (the Freddie Mac Notification) MGIC that it may
utilize MIC to write new business in states in which MGIC does not meet minimum regulatory capital
requirements to write new business and does not obtain appropriate waivers of those requirements.
This conditional approval to use MIC as a Limited Insurer will expire December 31, 2012. This
conditional approval includes terms substantially similar to those in the Fannie Mae Agreement and
is summarized more fully in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC on February 16, 2010.
Under the Fannie Mae Agreement, Fannie Mae approved MIC as an eligible mortgage insurer only
through December 31, 2011 and Freddie Mac has approved MIC as a Limited Insurer only through
December 31, 2012. Whether MIC will continue as an eligible mortgage insurer after these dates will
be determined by the applicable GSEs mortgage insurer eligibility requirements then in effect. For
more information, see the risk factor titled MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs mortgage
insurer eligibility requirements. Further, under the Fannie Mae Agreement and the Freddie Mac
Notification, MGIC cannot capitalize MIC with more than the $200 million contribution without prior
approval from each GSE, which limits the amount of business MIC can write. We believe that the
amount of capital that MGIC has contributed to MIC will be sufficient to write business for the
term of the Fannie Mae Agreement in the jurisdictions in which MIC is eligible to do so. Depending
on the level of losses that MGIC experiences in the future, however, it is possible that regulatory
action by one or more jurisdictions, including those that do not have specific regulatory capital
requirements applicable to mortgage insurers, may prevent MGIC from continuing to write new
insurance in some or all of the jurisdictions in which MIC is not eligible to write business.
A failure to meet the specific minimum regulatory capital requirements to insure new business
does not necessarily mean that MGIC does not have sufficient resources to pay claims on its
insurance liabilities. While we believe that we have claims paying resources at MGIC that exceed
our claim obligations on our insurance in force, even in scenarios in which we fail to meet
regulatory capital requirements, we cannot assure you that the events that lead to us failing to
meet regulatory capital requirements would not also result in our not having sufficient claims
paying resources. Furthermore, our estimates of our claims paying resources and claim obligations
are based on various assumptions. These assumptions include our anticipated rescission activity,
future housing values and future unemployment rates. These assumptions are subject to inherent
uncertainty and require judgment by management. Current conditions in the domestic economy make the
assumptions about housing values and unemployment highly volatile in the sense that there is a wide
range of reasonably possible outcomes. Our anticipated rescission activity is also subject to
inherent uncertainty due to the difficulty of predicting the amount of claims that will be
rescinded and the outcome of any dispute resolution proceedings related to the rescissions we make.
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We have reported net losses for the last three years, expect to continue to report net losses and
cannot assure you when we will return to profitability.
For the years ended December 31, 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively, we had a net loss of $1.3
billion, $0.5 billion and $1.7 billion. We believe the size of our future net losses will depend
primarily on the amount of our incurred and paid losses and to a lesser extent on the amount and
profitability of our new business. Our incurred and paid losses are dependent on factors that make
prediction of their amounts difficult and any forecasts are subject to significant volatility. We
currently expect to incur substantial losses for 2010 and losses in declining amounts thereafter.
Among the assumptions underlying our forecasts are that loan modification programs will only
modestly mitigate losses; that the cure rate steadily improves but does not return to historic
norms until early 2013; and there is no change to our current rescission practices. In this latter
regard, see the risk factor titled We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the
levels we have recently experienced and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our
rescissions were proper. Although we currently expect to return to profitability, we cannot
assure you when, or if, this will occur. During the last few years our ability to forecast
accurately future results has been limited due to significant volatility in many of the factors
that go into our forecasts. The net losses we have experienced have eroded, and any future net
losses will erode, our shareholders equity and could result in equity being negative.
We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the levels we have recently experienced
and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper.
Historically, claims submitted to us on policies we rescinded were not a material portion of
our claims resolved during a year. However, beginning in 2008, our rescissions of policies have
materially mitigated our paid losses. In 2009, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by $1.2
billion and in the first quarter of 2010, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by $373 million
(both of these figures include amounts that would have either resulted in a claim payment or been
charged to a deductible under a bulk or pool policy, and may have been charged to a captive
reinsurer). While we have a substantial pipeline of claims investigations that we expect will
eventually result in future rescissions, we can give no assurance that rescissions will continue to
mitigate paid losses at the same level we have recently experienced.
In addition, our loss reserving methodology incorporates the effects we expect rescission
activity to have on the losses we will pay on our delinquent inventory. A variance between ultimate
actual rescission rates and these estimates, as result of litigation, settlements or other factors,
could materially affect our losses. See the risk factor titled, Because loss reserve estimates are
subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions that are currently very volatile, paid claims
may be substantially different than our loss reserves. We estimate rescissions mitigated our
incurred losses by approximately $2.5 billion in 2009, compared to $0.6 billion in the first
quarter of 2010; both of these figures include the benefit of claims not paid as well as the impact
on our loss reserves. In recent quarters, approximately 25% of claims received in a quarter have
been resolved by rescissions. At March 31, 2010, we had 241,244 loans in our primary delinquency
inventory; the resolution of a material portion of these loans will not involve claims.
If the insured disputes our right to rescind coverage, whether the requirements to rescind are
met ultimately would be determined by legal proceedings. Objections to rescission may be made
several years after we have rescinded an insurance policy. Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. and an
affiliate (Countrywide) filed a lawsuit against MGIC alleging that MGIC denied, and continues to
deny, valid mortgage insurance claims. We filed an arbitration case against Countrywide regarding
rescissions and Countrywide has responded seeking material damages. For more information about this
lawsuit and arbitration case, see the risk factor titled We are subject to the risk of private
litigation and regulatory proceedings. In addition, we continue to discuss with other lenders
their objections to material rescissions and are involved in other arbitration proceedings with
respect to rescissions that are not collectively material in amount.
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We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings.
Consumers are bringing a growing number of lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and
settlement service providers. Seven mortgage insurers, including MGIC, have been involved in
litigation alleging violations of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement
Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit
Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA. MGICs settlement of class action litigation
against it under RESPA became final in October 2003. MGIC settled the named plaintiffs claims in
litigation against it under FCRA in late December 2004 following denial of class certification in
June 2004. Since December 2006, class action litigation was separately brought against a number of
large lenders alleging that their captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements violated RESPA. While
we are not a defendant in any of these cases, there can be no assurance that we will not be subject
to future litigation under RESPA or FCRA or that the outcome of any such litigation would not have
a material adverse effect on us.
We are subject to comprehensive, detailed regulation by state insurance departments. These
regulations are principally designed for the protection of our insured policyholders, rather than
for the benefit of investors. Although their scope varies, state insurance laws generally grant
broad supervisory powers to agencies or officials to examine insurance companies and enforce rules
or exercise discretion affecting almost every significant aspect of the insurance business. Given
the recent significant losses incurred by many insurers in the mortgage and financial guaranty
industries, our insurance subsidiaries have been subject to heightened scrutiny by insurance
regulators. State insurance regulatory authorities could take actions, including changes in capital
requirements or termination of waivers of capital requirements, that could have a material adverse
effect on us.
In June 2005, in response to a letter from the New York Insurance Department, we provided
information regarding captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements and other types of arrangements in
which lenders receive compensation. In February 2006, the New York Insurance Department requested
MGIC to review its premium rates in New York and to file adjusted rates based on recent years
experience or to explain why such experience would not alter rates. In March 2006, MGIC advised the
New York Insurance Department that it believes its premium rates are reasonable and that, given the
nature of mortgage insurance risk, premium rates should not be determined only by the experience of
recent years. In February 2006, in response to an administrative subpoena from the Minnesota
Department of Commerce, which regulates insurance, we provided the Department with information
about captive mortgage reinsurance and certain other matters. We subsequently provided additional
information to the Minnesota Department of Commerce, and beginning in March 2008 that Department
has sought additional information as well as answers to questions regarding captive mortgage
reinsurance on several occasions. In addition, beginning in June 2008, we have received subpoenas
from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, commonly referred to as HUD, seeking
information about captive mortgage reinsurance similar to that requested by the Minnesota
Department of Commerce, but not limited in scope to the state of Minnesota. Other insurance
departments or other officials, including attorneys general, may also seek information about or
investigate captive mortgage reinsurance.
The anti-referral fee provisions of RESPA provide that HUD as well as the insurance
commissioner or attorney general of any state may bring an action to enjoin violations of these
provisions of RESPA. The insurance law provisions of many states prohibit paying for the referral
of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition. While we believe
our captive reinsurance arrangements are in conformity with applicable laws and regulations, it is
not possible to predict the outcome of any such reviews or investigations nor is it possible to
predict their effect on us or the mortgage insurance industry.
Since October 2007 we have been involved in an investigation conducted by the Division of
Enforcement of the SEC. The investigation appears to involve disclosure and financial reporting by
us and by a co-investor regarding our respective investments in our Credit-Based Asset Servicing
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Securitization (C-BASS) joint venture. We have provided documents to the SEC and a number of our
executive officers, as well as other employees, have testified. This matter is ongoing and no
assurance can be given that the SEC staff will not recommend an enforcement action against our
company or one or more of our executive officers or other employees.
Five previously-filed purported class action complaints filed against us and several of our
executive officers were consolidated in March 2009 in the United States District Court for the
Eastern District of Wisconsin and Fulton County Employees Retirement System was appointed as the
lead plaintiff. The lead plaintiff filed a Consolidated Class Action Complaint (the Complaint) on
June 22, 2009. Due in part to its length and structure, it is difficult to summarize briefly the
allegations in the Complaint but it appears the allegations are that we and our officers named in
the Complaint violated the federal securities laws by misrepresenting or failing to disclose
material information about (i) loss development in our insurance in force, and (ii) C-BASS,
including its liquidity. Our motion to dismiss the Complaint was granted on February 18, 2010. On
March 18, 2010, plaintiffs filed a motion for leave to file an amended complaint. Attached to this
motion was a proposed Amended Complaint (the Amended Complaint). The Amended Complaint alleges
that we and two of our officers named in the Amended Complaint violated the federal securities laws
by misrepresenting or failing to disclose material information about C-BASS, including its
liquidity, and by failing to properly account for our investment in C-BASS. The Amended Complaint
also names two officers of C-BASS with respect to the Amended Complaints allegations regarding
C-BASS. The purported class period covered by the Complaint begins on February 6, 2007 and ends on
August 13, 2007. The Amended Complaint seeks damages based on purchases of our stock during this
time period at prices that were allegedly inflated as a result of the purported violations of
federal securities laws. On April 12, 2010, we filed a motion in opposition to Plaintiffs motion
for leave to amend its complaint. With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers are
entitled to indemnification from us for claims against them of the type alleged in the Amended
Complaint. We are unable to predict the outcome of these consolidated cases or estimate our
associated expenses or possible losses. Other lawsuits alleging violations of the securities laws
could be brought against us.
Several law firms have issued press releases to the effect that they are investigating us,
including whether the fiduciaries of our 401(k) plan breached their fiduciary duties regarding the
plans investment in or holding of our common stock or whether we breached other legal or fiduciary
obligations to our shareholders. With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers and
401(k) plan fiduciaries are entitled to indemnification from us for claims against them. We intend
to defend vigorously any proceedings that may result from these investigations.
As we previously disclosed, for some time we have had discussions with lenders regarding their
objections to rescissions that in the aggregate are material. On December 17, 2009, Countrywide
filed a complaint for declaratory relief in the Superior Court of the State of California in San
Francisco against MGIC. This complaint alleges that MGIC has denied, and continues to deny, valid
mortgage insurance claims submitted by Countrywide and says it seeks declaratory relief regarding
the proper interpretation of the flow insurance policies at issue. On January 19, 2010, we removed
this case to the United States District Court for the Northern District of California. On March 30,
2010, the Court ordered the case remanded to the Superior Court of the State of California in San
Francisco. We have asked the Court to stay the remand and plan to appeal this decision. On February
24, 2010, we commenced an arbitration action against Countrywide seeking a determination that MGIC
was entitled to deny and/or rescind coverage on the loans involved in the arbitration demand, which
numbered more than 1,400 loans as of the filing of the demand. On March 16, 2010, Countrywide filed
a response to our arbitration action objecting to the arbitrators jurisdiction in view of the case
initiated by Countrywide in the Superior Court of the State of California and asserting various
defenses to the relief sought by MGIC in the arbitration. The response also seeks damages of at
least $150 million, exclusive of interest and costs, as a result of purported breaches of flow
insurance policies issued by MGIC and additional damages, including
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exemplary damages, on account of MGICs purported breach of an implied covenant of good faith and
fair dealing. We intend to defend MGIC against Countrywides complaint and arbitration response,
and to pursue MGICs claims in the arbitration, vigorously. However, we are unable to predict the
outcome of these proceedings or their effect on us.
In addition to the rescissions at issue with Countrywide, we have a substantial pipeline of
claims investigations (including investigations involving loans related to Countrywide) that we
expect will eventually result in future rescissions. For additional information about rescissions,
see the risk factor titled We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the levels
we have recently experienced and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our
rescissions were proper.
Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a
restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
The majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The
business practices of the GSEs affect the entire relationship between them and mortgage insurers
and include:
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the level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of the
GSEs charters (which may be changed by federal legislation) when private mortgage
insurance is used as the required credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages, |
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the amount of loan level delivery fees (which result in higher costs to borrowers) that
the GSEs assess on loans that require mortgage insurance, |
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whether the GSEs influence the mortgage lenders selection of the mortgage insurer
providing coverage and, if so, any transactions that are related to that selection, |
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the underwriting standards that determine what loans are eligible for purchase by the
GSEs, which can affect the quality of the risk insured by the mortgage insurer and the
availability of mortgage loans, |
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the terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the
cancellation thresholds established by law, and |
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the programs established by the GSEs intended to avoid or mitigate loss on insured
mortgages and the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must implement such programs. |
In September 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) was appointed as the
conservator of the GSEs. As their conservator, FHFA controls and directs the operations of the
GSEs. The appointment of FHFA as conservator, the increasing role that the federal government has
assumed in the residential mortgage market, our industrys inability, due to capital constraints,
to write sufficient business to meet the needs of the GSEs or other factors may increase the
likelihood that the business practices of the GSEs change in ways that may have a material adverse
effect on us. In addition, these factors may increase the likelihood that the charters of the GSEs
are changed by new federal legislation. Such changes may allow the GSEs to reduce or eliminate the
level of private mortgage insurance coverage that they use as credit enhancement, which could have
a material adverse effect on our revenue, results of operations or financial condition. The Obama
administration and certain members of Congress have publicly stated that that they are considering
proposing significant changes to the GSEs. As a result, it is uncertain what role that the GSEs
will play in the domestic residential housing finance system in the future or the impact of any
such changes on our business.
6
For a number of years, the GSEs have had programs under which on certain loans lenders could
choose a mortgage insurance coverage percentage that was only the minimum required by their
charters, with the GSEs paying a lower price for these loans (charter coverage). The GSEs have
also had programs under which on certain loans they would accept a level of mortgage insurance
above the requirements of their charters but below their standard coverage without any decrease in
the purchase price they would pay for these loans (reduced coverage). Effective January 1, 2010,
Fannie Mae broadly expanded the types of loans eligible for charter coverage and in the second
quarter of 2010 Fannie Mae eliminated its reduced coverage program. In recent years, a majority of
our volume was on loans with GSE standard coverage, a substantial portion of our volume has been on
loans with reduced coverage, and a minor portion of our volume has been on loans with charter
coverage. We charge higher premium rates for higher coverages. During the first quarter of 2010,
the portion of our volume insured at charter coverage has been approximately the same as in the
recent years and, due in part to the elimination of reduced coverage by Fannie Mae, the portion of
our volume insured at standard coverage has increased. Also, the pricing changes we plan to
implement on May 1, 2010 (see the risk factor titled The premiums we charge may not be adequate to
compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a result any inadequacy could materially affect
our financial condition and results of operations.) would eliminate a lenders incentive to use
Fannie Mae charter coverage in place of standard coverage. However, to the extent lenders
selling loans to Fannie Mae in the future did choose charter coverage for loans that we insure, our
revenues would be reduced and we could experience other adverse effects.
Both of the GSEs have policies which provide guidelines on terms under which they can conduct
business with mortgage insurers, such as MGIC, with financial strength ratings below Aa3/AA-.
(MGICs financial strength rating from Moodys is Ba3, with a negative outlook; from Standard &
Poors is B+, with a negative outlook; and from Fitch Ratings Service is BB-, with a negative
outlook.) For information about how these policies could affect us, see the risk factor titled
MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs mortgage insurer eligibility requirements.
MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs mortgage insurer eligibility requirements.
The majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, each of
which has mortgage insurer eligibility requirements. We believe that the GSEs are analyzing their
mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and may make changes to them in the near future.
Currently, MGIC is operating with each GSE as an eligible insurer under a remediation plan. We
believe that the GSEs view remediation plans as a continuing process of interaction between a
mortgage insurer and MGIC will continue to operate under a remediation plan for the foreseeable
future. There can be no assurance that MGIC will be able to continue to operate as an eligible
mortgage insurer under a remediation plan. If MGIC ceases being eligible to insure loans purchased
by one or both of the GSEs, it would significantly reduce the volume of our new business writings.
The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select
alternatives to private mortgage insurance.
These alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:
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lenders using government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the Federal
Housing Administration, or FHA, and the Veterans Administration, |
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lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring, |
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investors using credit enhancements other than private mortgage insurance, using other
credit enhancements in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance
coverage, or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement, and |
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lenders originating mortgages using piggyback structures to avoid private mortgage
insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage
with a 10%, 15% or 20% loan-to-value ratio (referred to as 80-10-10, 80-15-5 or 80-20
loans, respectively) rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% loan-to-value
ratio that has private mortgage insurance. |
The FHA substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008. We believe that the FHAs
market share increased, in part, because mortgage insurers have tightened their underwriting
guidelines (which has led to increased utilization of the FHAs programs) and because of increases
in the amount of loan level delivery fees that the GSEs assess on loans (which result in higher
costs to borrowers). Recent federal legislation and programs have also provided the FHA with
greater flexibility in establishing new products and have increased the FHAs competitive position
against private mortgage insurers.
Competition or changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues or
increase our losses.
In recent years, the level of competition within the private mortgage insurance industry has
been intense as many large mortgage lenders reduced the number of private mortgage insurers with
whom they do business. At the same time, consolidation among mortgage lenders has increased the
share of the mortgage lending market held by large lenders. Our private mortgage insurance
competitors include:
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PMI Mortgage Insurance Company, |
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Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation, |
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United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company, |
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Radian Guaranty Inc., |
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Republic Mortgage Insurance Company, whose parent, based on information filed with the
SEC through April 12, 2010, is our largest shareholder, and |
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CMG Mortgage Insurance Company. |
Until recently, the mortgage insurance industry had not had new entrants in many years.
Recently, Essent Guaranty, Inc. announced that it would begin writing new mortgage insurance.
Essent has publicly reported that one of its investors is JPMorgan Chase which is one of our
customers. The perceived increase in credit quality of loans that are being insured today combined
with the deterioration of the financial strength ratings of the existing mortgage insurance
companies could encourage new entrants. We understand that one potential new entrant has advertised
for employees. The FHA, which in recent years was not viewed by us as a significant competitor,
substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008.
Our relationships with our customers could be adversely affected by a variety of factors,
including tightening of and adherence to our underwriting guidelines, which have resulted in our
declining to insure some of the loans originated by our customers, rescission of loans that affect
the customer and our decision to discontinue ceding new business under excess of loss captive
reinsurance programs. In the
8
fourth quarter of 2009, Countrywide commenced litigation against us as a result of its
dissatisfaction with our rescissions practices shortly after Countrywide ceased doing business with
us. See the risk factor titled We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory
proceedings for more information about this litigation and the arbitration case we filed against
Countrywide regarding rescissions. Countrywide and its Bank of America affiliates accounted for
12.0% of our flow new insurance written in 2008 and 8.3% of our new insurance written in the first
three quarters of 2009. In addition, we continue to have discussions with other lenders who are
significant customers regarding their objections to rescissions. The FHA, which in recent years was
not viewed by us as a significant competitor, substantially increased its market share beginning in
2008.
We believe some lenders assess a mortgage insurers financial strength rating as an important
element of the process through which they select mortgage insurers. MGICs financial strength
rating from Moodys is Ba3, with a negative outlook; from Standard & Poors is B+, with a negative
outlook; and from Fitch Ratings Service is BB-, with a negative outlook. Absent additional
capital, it is possible that MGICs financial strength ratings could decline from these levels. As
a result of MGICs less than investment grade financial strength rating, MGIC may be competitively
disadvantaged with these lenders.
Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in the value of borrowers homes from their value at
the time their loans closed may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing.
Losses result from events that reduce a borrowers ability to continue to make mortgage
payments, such as unemployment, and whether the home of a borrower who defaults on his mortgage can
be sold for an amount that will cover unpaid principal and interest and the expenses of the sale.
In general, favorable economic conditions reduce the likelihood that borrowers will lack sufficient
income to pay their mortgages and also favorably affect the value of homes, thereby reducing and in
some cases even eliminating a loss from a mortgage default. A deterioration in economic conditions,
including an increase in unemployment, generally increases the likelihood that borrowers will not
have sufficient income to pay their mortgages and can also adversely affect housing values, which
in turn can influence the willingness of borrowers with sufficient resources to make mortgage
payments to do so when the mortgage balance exceeds the value of the home. Housing values may
decline even absent a deterioration in economic conditions due to declines in demand for homes,
which in turn may result from changes in buyers perceptions of the potential for future
appreciation, restrictions on and the cost of mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting
standards, liquidity issues affecting lenders or higher interest rates generally or other factors.
The residential mortgage market in the United States has for some time experienced a variety of
poor or worsening economic conditions, including a material nationwide decline in housing values,
with declines continuing in 2010 in a number of geographic areas. Home values may continue to
deteriorate and unemployment levels may continue to increase or remain elevated.
The mix of business we write also affects the likelihood of losses occurring.
Even when housing values are stable or rising, certain types of mortgages have higher
probabilities of claims. These types include loans with loan-to-value ratios over 95% (or in
certain markets that have experienced declining housing values, over 90%), FICO credit scores below
620, limited underwriting, including limited borrower documentation, or total debt-to-income ratios
of 38% or higher, as well as loans having combinations of higher risk factors. As of March 31,
2010, approximately 60% of our primary risk in force consisted of loans with loan-to-value ratios
equal to or greater than 95%, 9.10% had FICO credit scores below 620, and 12.2% had limited
underwriting, including limited borrower documentation. A material portion of these loans were
written in 2005 2007 or the first quarter of 2008. (In accordance with industry practice, loans
approved by GSEs and other automated underwriting systems under doc waiver programs that do not
require verification of borrower income are classified
9
by us as full documentation. For additional information about such loans, see footnote (1) to the
Additional Information at the end of this press release.)
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007 we made a series of changes to our underwriting
guidelines in an effort to improve the risk profile of our new business. Requirements imposed by
new guidelines, however, only affect business written under commitments to insure loans that are
issued after those guidelines become effective. Business for which commitments are issued after new
guidelines are announced and before they become effective is insured by us in accordance with the
guidelines in effect at time of the commitment even if that business would not meet the new
guidelines. For commitments we issue for loans that close and are insured by us, a period longer
than a calendar quarter can elapse between the time we issue a commitment to insure a loan and the
time we report the loan in our risk in force, although this period is generally shorter.
From time to time, in response to market conditions, we increase or decrease the types of
loans that we insure. In addition, we make exceptions to our underwriting guidelines on a
loan-by-loan basis and for certain customer programs. Together these exceptions accounted for less
than 5% of the loans we insured in recent quarters. The changes to our underwriting guidelines
since the fourth quarter of 2007 include the creation of two tiers of restricted markets. Our
underwriting criteria for restricted markets do not allow insurance to be written on certain loans
that could be insured if the property were located in an unrestricted market. Beginning in
September 2009, we removed several markets from our restricted markets list and moved several other
markets from our Tier Two restricted market list (for which our underwriting guidelines are most
limiting) to our Tier One restricted market list. In addition, we have made other changes that have
relaxed our underwriting guidelines and expect to continue to make changes in appropriate
circumstances that will do so in the future.
As of March 31, 2010, approximately 3.5% of our primary risk in force written through the flow
channel, and 41.0% of our primary risk in force written through the bulk channel, consisted of
adjustable rate mortgages in which the initial interest rate may be adjusted during the five years
after the mortgage closing (ARMs). We classify as fixed rate loans adjustable rate mortgages in
which the initial interest rate is fixed during the five years after the mortgage closing. We
believe that when the reset interest rate significantly exceeds the interest rate at loan
origination, claims on ARMs would be substantially higher than for fixed rate loans. Moreover, even
if interest rates remain unchanged, claims on ARMs with a teaser rate (an initial interest rate
that does not fully reflect the index which determines subsequent rates) may also be substantially
higher because of the increase in the mortgage payment that will occur when the fully indexed rate
becomes effective. In addition, we have insured interest-only loans, which may also be ARMs, and
loans with negative amortization features, such as pay option ARMs. We believe claim rates on these
loans will be substantially higher than on loans without scheduled payment increases that are made
to borrowers of comparable credit quality.
Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our underwriting and
pricing models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment
income will be adequate to compensate for actual losses even under our current underwriting
guidelines. We do, however, believe that given the various changes in our underwriting guidelines
that were effective beginning in the first quarter of 2008, our insurance written beginning in the
second quarter of 2008 will generate underwriting profits.
Because we establish loss reserves only upon a loan default rather than based on estimates of our
ultimate losses, losses may have a disproportionate adverse effect on our earnings in certain
periods.
In accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, commonly referred to as GAAP, we
establish loss reserves only for loans in default. Reserves are established for reported insurance
losses and
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loss adjustment expenses based on when notices of default on insured mortgage loans are received.
Reserves are also established for estimated losses incurred on notices of default that have not yet
been reported to us by the servicers (this is often referred to as IBNR). We establish reserves
using estimated claims rates and claims amounts in estimating the ultimate loss. Because our
reserving method does not take account of the impact of future losses that could occur from loans
that are not delinquent, our obligation for ultimate losses that we expect to occur under our
policies in force at any period end is not reflected in our financial statements, except in the
case where a premium deficiency exists. As a result, future losses may have a material impact on
future results as losses emerge.
Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions that are
currently very volatile, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves.
We establish reserves using estimated claim rates and claim amounts in estimating the ultimate
loss on delinquent loans. The estimated claim rates and claim amounts represent our best estimates
of what we will actually pay on the loans in default as of the reserve date and incorporates
anticipated mitigation from rescissions.
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires judgment by
management. Current conditions in the housing and mortgage industries make the assumptions that we
use to establish loss reserves more volatile than they would otherwise be. The actual amount of the
claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could
be adversely affected by several factors, including a deterioration of regional or national
economic conditions, including unemployment, leading to a reduction in borrowers income and thus
their ability to make mortgage payments, a drop in housing values that could materially reduce our
ability to mitigate potential loss through property acquisition and resale or expose us to greater
loss on resale of properties obtained through the claim settlement process and mitigation from
rescissions being materially less than assumed. Changes to our estimates could result in material
impact to our results of operations, even in a stable economic environment, and there can be no
assurance that actual claims paid by us will not be substantially different than our loss reserves.
The premiums we charge may not be adequate to compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a
result any inadequacy could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.
We set premiums at the time a policy is issued based on our expectations regarding likely
performance over the long-term. Our premiums are subject to approval by state regulatory agencies,
which can delay or limit our ability to increase our premiums. Generally, we cannot cancel the
mortgage insurance coverage or adjust renewal premiums during the life of a mortgage insurance
policy. As a result, higher than anticipated claims generally cannot be offset by premium increases
on policies in force or mitigated by our non-renewal or cancellation of insurance coverage. The
premiums we charge, and the associated investment income, may not be adequate to compensate us for
the risks and costs associated with the insurance coverage provided to customers. An increase in
the number or size of claims, compared to what we anticipate, could adversely affect our results of
operations or financial condition.
Subject to regulatory approval, effective May 1, 2010, we will price our new insurance written
after considering, among other things, the borrowers credit score. We made these rate changes to
be more competitive with insurance programs offered by the FHA. Had these rate changes been in
place with respect to new insurance written in the second half of 2009 and the first quarter of
2010, they would have resulted in lower premiums being charged for a substantial majority of our
new insurance written. However, during the first quarter of 2010 (continuing a trend that began in
the fourth quarter of 2009), the
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average coverage percentage of our new insurance written increased. We believe the increased
coverage was due in part to the elimination of Fannie Maes reduced coverage program. See the risk
factor titled Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes
their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
Because we charge higher premiums for higher coverages, had our reduced premium rates been in
effect during the first quarter, the effect of lower premium rates would have been largely offset
by the increase in premiums due to higher coverages. We cannot predict whether our new business
written in the future will continue to have higher coverages. For more information about our rate
changes, see our Form 8-K that was filed with the
SEC on February 23, 2010.
In January 2008, we announced that we had decided to stop writing the portion of our bulk
business that insures loans which are included in Wall Street securitizations because the
performance of loans included in such securitizations deteriorated materially in the fourth quarter
of 2007 and this deterioration was materially worse than we experienced for loans insured through
the flow channel or loans insured through the remainder of our bulk channel. As of December 31,
2007 we established a premium deficiency reserve of approximately $1.2 billion. As of March 31,
2010, the premium deficiency reserve was $180 million. At each date, the premium deficiency reserve
is the present value of expected future losses and expenses that exceeded the present value of
expected future premium and already established loss reserves on these bulk transactions.
The mortgage insurance industry is experiencing material losses, especially on the 2006 and
2007 books. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on general economic conditions,
including unemployment, and the direction of home prices, which in turn will be influenced by
general economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or
general economic conditions with confidence, there is significant uncertainty surrounding what our
ultimate losses will be on our 2006 and 2007 books. Our current expectation, however, is that these
books will continue to generate material incurred and paid losses for a number of years. There can
be no assurance that additional premium deficiency reserves on Wall Street Bulk or on other
portions of our insurance portfolio will not be required.
We may not be able to repay the amounts that we owe under our Senior Notes due in September 2011.
As of April 16, 2010, we had a total of approximately $85 million in short-term investments
available at our holding company. These investments are virtually all of our holding companys
liquid assets. As of April 16, 2010, our holding company had approximately $78.4 million of Senior
Notes due in September 2011 (since the beginning of 2009, our holding company purchased $121.6
million principal amount of these Notes) and $300 million of Senior Notes due in November 2015
outstanding. On an annual basis as of March 31, 2010, our holding companys current use of funds
for interest payments on its Senior Notes approximates $21 million.
While under the Fannie Mae Agreement and the Freddie Mac Notification MGIC may not pay
dividends to our holding company without the GSEs consent, the GSEs have consented to dividends of
not more than $100 million in the aggregate to purchase existing debt obligations of our holding
company or to pay such obligations at maturity. Any dividends from MGIC to our holding company
would require the approval of the OCI, and may require other approvals.
See Notes 6 and 7 to our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of our Annual Report on
Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009 for more information regarding our holding companys
assets and liabilities as of that date.
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Loan modification and other similar programs may not provide material benefits to us and our losses
on loans that re-default can be higher than what we would have paid had the loan not been modified.
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, the federal government, including through the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the GSEs, and several lenders have adopted programs to
modify loans to make them more affordable to borrowers with the goal of reducing the number of
foreclosures. For the quarter ending March 31, 2010, we were notified of modifications involving
loans with risk in force of approximately $734 million.
One such program is the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which was announced by
the US Treasury in early 2009. Some of HAMPs eligibility criteria require current information
about borrowers, such as his or her current income and non-mortgage debt payments. Because the GSEs
and servicers do not share such information with us, we cannot determine with certainty the number
of loans in our delinquent inventory that are eligible to participate in HAMP. We believe that it
could take several months from the time a borrower has made all of the payments during HAMPs three
month trial modification period for the loan to be reported to us as a cured delinquency. We are
aware of approximately 43,100 loans in our primary delinquent inventory at March 31, 2010 for which
the HAMP trial period has begun and approximately 11,600 delinquent primary loans have cured their
delinquency after entering HAMP. We rely on information provided to us by the GSEs and servicers.
We do not receive all of the information from such sources that is required to determine with
certainty the number of loans that are participating in, or have successfully completed, HAMP.
Under HAMP, a net present value test (the NPV Test) is used to determine if loan
modifications will be offered. For loans owned or guaranteed by the GSEs, servicers may, depending
on the results of the NPV Test and other factors, be required to offer loan modifications, as
defined by HAMP, to borrowers. As of December 1, 2009, the GSEs changed how the NPV Test is used.
These changes made it more difficult for some loans to be modified under HAMP. While we lack
sufficient data to determine the impact of these changes, we believe that they may materially
decrease the number of our loans that will participate in HAMP. In January 2010 the United States
Treasury department has further modified the HAMP eligibility requirements. Effective June 1, 2010
a servicer may evaluate and initiate a HAMP trial modification for a borrower only after the
servicer receives certain documents that allow the servicer to verify the borrowers income and the
cause of the borrowers financial hardship. Previously, these documents were not required to be
submitted until after the successful completion of HAMPs trial modification period. We believe
that this will decrease the number of new HAMP trial modifications.
The effect on us of loan modifications depends on how many modified loans subsequently
re-default, which in turn can be affected by changes in housing values. Re-defaults can result in
losses for us that could be greater than we would have paid had the loan not been modified. At this
point, we cannot predict with a high degree of confidence what the ultimate re-default rate will
be, and therefore we cannot ascertain with confidence whether these programs will provide material
benefits to us. In addition, because we do not have information in our database for all of the
parameters used to determine which loans are eligible for modification programs, our estimates of
the number of loans qualifying for modification programs are inherently uncertain. If legislation
is enacted to permit a mortgage balance to be reduced in bankruptcy, we would still be responsible
to pay the original balance if the borrower re-defaulted on that mortgage after its balance had
been reduced. Various government entities and private parties have enacted foreclosure (or
equivalent) moratoriums. Such a moratorium does not affect the accrual of interest and other
expenses on a loan. Unless a loan is modified during a moratorium to cure the default, at the
expiration of the moratorium additional interest and expenses would be due which could result in
our losses on loans subject to the moratorium being higher than if there had been no moratorium.
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Eligibility under loan modification programs can also adversely affect us by creating an
incentive for borrowers who are able to make their mortgage payments to become delinquent in an
attempt to obtain the benefits of a modification. New notices of delinquency are a factor that
increases our incurred losses.
If interest rates decline, house prices appreciate or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements
change, the length of time that our policies remain in force could decline and result in declines
in our revenue.
In each year, most of our premiums are from insurance that has been written in prior years. As
a result, the length of time insurance remains in force, which is also generally referred to as
persistency, is a significant determinant of our revenues. The factors affecting the length of time
our insurance remains in force include:
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the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on
the insurance in force, which affects the vulnerability of the insurance in force to
refinancings, and |
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mortgage insurance cancellation policies of mortgage investors along with the current
value of the homes underlying the mortgages in the insurance in force. |
During the 1990s, our year-end persistency ranged from a high of 87.4% at December 31, 1990 to
a low of 68.1% at December 31, 1998. Since 2000, our year-end persistency ranged from a high of
84.7% at December 31, 2009 to a low of 47.1% at December 31, 2003. Future premiums on our insurance
in force represent a material portion of our claims paying resources.
Your ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise or if the holders
of our outstanding convertible debentures convert their debentures into shares of our common stock.
As noted above in the risk factor titled Even though our plan to write new insurance in MIC
has received approval from the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin
(OCI) and the GSEs, because MGIC is not expected to meet statutory risk-to-capital requirements
to write new business in various states, we cannot guarantee that the implementation of our plan
will allow us to continue to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis, we may be required to
raised additional equity capital. Any such future sales would dilute your ownership interest in
our company. In addition, the market price of our common stock could decline as a result of sales
of a large number of shares or similar securities in the market or the perception that such sales
could occur.
We have approximately $390 million principal amount of 9% Convertible Junior Subordinated
Debentures outstanding. The principal amount of the debentures is currently convertible, at the
holders option, at an initial conversion rate, which is subject to adjustment, of 74.0741 common
shares per $1,000 principal amount of debentures. This represents an initial conversion price of
approximately $13.50 per share. We have elected to defer the payment of a total of approximately
$55 million of interest on these debentures. We may also defer additional interest in the future.
If a holder elects to convert its debentures, the interest that has been deferred on the debentures
being converted is also converted into shares of our common stock. The conversion rate for such
deferred interest is based on the average price that our shares traded at during a 5-day period
immediately prior to the election to convert the associated debentures.
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If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that
we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues.
The factors that affect the volume of low-down-payment mortgage originations include:
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restrictions on mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards and
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the level of home mortgage interest rates, |
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the health of the domestic economy as well as conditions in regional and local
economies, |
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housing affordability, |
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population trends, including the rate of household formation, |
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the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect
whether refinance loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance,
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government housing policy encouraging loans to first-time homebuyers. |
A decline in the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations could decrease demand
for mortgage insurance, decrease our new insurance written and reduce our revenues.
The Internal Revenue Service has proposed significant adjustments to our taxable income for 2000
through 2007.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has completed separate examinations of our federal income
tax returns for the years 2000 through 2004 and 2005 through 2007 and has issued assessments for
unpaid taxes, interest and penalties. The primary adjustment in both examinations relates to our
treatment of the flow through income and loss from an investment in a portfolio of residual
interests of Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICS). This portfolio has been managed
and maintained during years prior to, during and subsequent to the examination period. The IRS has
indicated that it does not believe that, for various reasons, we have established sufficient tax
basis in the REMIC residual interests to deduct the losses from taxable income. We disagree with
this conclusion and believe that the flow through income and loss from these investments was
properly reported on our federal income tax returns in accordance with applicable tax laws and
regulations in effect during the periods involved and have appealed these adjustments. The appeals
process is ongoing and may last for an extended period of time, but at this time it is difficult
to predict with any certainty when it may conclude. The assessment for unpaid taxes related to the
REMIC issue for these years is $197.1 million in taxes and accuracy-related penalties, plus
applicable interest. Other adjustments during taxable years 2000 through 2007 are not material, and
have been agreed to with the IRS. On July 2, 2007, we made a payment on account of $65.2 million
with the United States Department of the Treasury to eliminate the further accrual of interest. We
believe, after discussions with outside counsel about the issues raised in the examinations and the
procedures for resolution of the disputed adjustments, that an adequate provision for income taxes
has been made for potential liabilities that may result from these assessments. If the outcome of
this matter differs materially from our estimates, it could have a material impact on our effective
tax rate, results of operations and cash flows.
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We could be adversely affected if personal information on consumers that we maintain is improperly
disclosed.
As part of our business, we maintain large amounts of personal information on consumers. While
we believe we have appropriate information security policies and systems to prevent unauthorized
disclosure, there can be no assurance that unauthorized disclosure, either through the actions of third parties
or employees, will not occur. Unauthorized disclosure could adversely affect our reputation and
expose us to material claims for damages.
The implementation of the Basel II capital accord, or other changes to our customers capital
requirements, may discourage the use of mortgage insurance.
In 1988, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision developed the Basel Capital Accord (Basel
I), which set out international benchmarks for assessing banks capital adequacy requirements. In
June 2005, the Basel Committee issued an update to Basel I (as revised in November 2005, Basel II).
Basel II was implemented by many banks in the United States and many other countries in 2009 and
may be implemented by the remaining banks in the United States and many other countries in 2010.
Basel II affects the capital treatment provided to mortgage insurance by domestic and international
banks in both their origination and securitization activities.
The Basel II provisions related to residential mortgages and mortgage insurance, or other
changes to our customers capital requirements, may provide incentives to certain of our bank
customers not to insure mortgages having a lower risk of claim and to insure mortgages having a
higher risk of claim. The Basel II provisions may also alter the competitive positions and
financial performance of mortgage insurers in other ways.
We may not be able to recover the capital we invested in our Australian operations for many years
and may not recover all of such capital.
We have committed significant resources to begin international operations, primarily in
Australia, where we started to write business in June 2007. In view of our need to dedicate capital
to our domestic mortgage insurance operations, we have reduced our Australian headcount and are no
longer writing new business in Australia. In addition to the general economic and insurance
business-related factors discussed above, we are subject to a number of other risks from having
deployed capital in Australia, including foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and
interest-rate volatility particular to Australia.
We are susceptible to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans that we insure.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. A recent
trend in the mortgage lending and mortgage loan servicing industry has been towards consolidation
of loan servicers. This reduction in the number of servicers could lead to disruptions in the
servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. In addition, current housing market
trends have led to significant increases in the number of delinquent mortgage loans requiring
servicing. These increases have strained the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to
undertake mitigation efforts that could help limit our losses. Future housing market conditions
could lead to additional such increases. Managing a substantially higher volume of non-performing
loans could lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage.
16
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended March 31, |
|
|
|
2010 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
|
(Unaudited) |
|
|
|
(in thousands of dollars, except per share data) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net premiums written |
|
$ |
256,058 |
|
|
$ |
347,513 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net premiums earned |
|
$ |
271,952 |
|
|
$ |
355,830 |
|
Investment income |
|
|
68,859 |
|
|
|
77,173 |
|
Realized gains, net |
|
|
32,954 |
|
|
|
8,441 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total other-than-temporary impairment losses |
|
|
(6,052 |
) |
|
|
(25,702 |
) |
Portion of loss recognized in other comprehensive
income (loss), before taxes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings |
|
|
(6,052 |
) |
|
|
(25,702 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other revenue |
|
|
3,057 |
|
|
|
19,442 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenues |
|
|
370,770 |
|
|
|
435,184 |
|
Losses and expenses: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Losses incurred |
|
|
454,511 |
|
|
|
757,893 |
|
Change in premium deficiency reserve |
|
|
(13,566 |
) |
|
|
(164,801 |
) |
Underwriting and other expenses, net |
|
|
59,945 |
|
|
|
62,549 |
|
Reinsurance fee |
|
|
|
|
|
|
26,407 |
|
Interest expense |
|
|
21,018 |
|
|
|
23,926 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total losses and expenses |
|
|
521,908 |
|
|
|
705,974 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Loss before tax |
|
|
(151,138 |
) |
|
|
(270,790 |
) |
Benefit from income taxes |
|
|
(1,047 |
) |
|
|
(86,230 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net loss |
|
$ |
(150,091 |
) |
|
$ |
(184,560 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diluted weighted average common shares
outstanding (Shares in thousands) |
|
|
124,889 |
|
|
|
123,999 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diluted loss per share |
|
$ |
(1.20 |
) |
|
$ |
(1.49 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NOTE: See Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures for diluted earnings per share contribution
from realized gains and losses.
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET AS OF
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, |
|
|
December 31, |
|
|
March 31, |
|
|
|
2010 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
|
(Unaudited) |
|
|
(Unaudited) |
|
|
(Unaudited) |
|
|
|
(in thousands of dollars, except per share data) |
|
ASSETS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Investments (1) |
|
$ |
7,470,237 |
|
|
$ |
7,254,465 |
|
|
$ |
7,425,438 |
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
818,123 |
|
|
|
1,185,739 |
|
|
|
1,212,697 |
|
Reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves (2) |
|
|
339,427 |
|
|
|
332,227 |
|
|
|
303,550 |
|
Prepaid reinsurance premiums |
|
|
3,342 |
|
|
|
3,554 |
|
|
|
4,152 |
|
Home office and equipment, net |
|
|
28,745 |
|
|
|
29,556 |
|
|
|
31,065 |
|
Deferred insurance policy acquisition costs |
|
|
8,689 |
|
|
|
9,022 |
|
|
|
10,741 |
|
Other assets |
|
|
581,854 |
|
|
|
589,856 |
|
|
|
345,041 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
9,250,417 |
|
|
$ |
9,404,419 |
|
|
$ |
9,332,684 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liabilities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Loss reserves (2) |
|
|
6,648,106 |
|
|
|
6,704,990 |
|
|
|
5,248,173 |
|
Premium deficiency reserve |
|
|
179,620 |
|
|
|
193,186 |
|
|
|
289,535 |
|
Unearned premiums |
|
|
265,052 |
|
|
|
280,738 |
|
|
|
327,212 |
|
Short- and long-term debt |
|
|
377,156 |
|
|
|
377,098 |
|
|
|
667,180 |
|
Convertible debentures |
|
|
297,321 |
|
|
|
291,785 |
|
|
|
277,034 |
|
Other liabilities |
|
|
325,208 |
|
|
|
254,041 |
|
|
|
198,876 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total liabilities |
|
|
8,092,463 |
|
|
|
8,101,838 |
|
|
|
7,008,010 |
|
Shareholders equity |
|
|
1,157,954 |
|
|
|
1,302,581 |
|
|
|
2,324,674 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
9,250,417 |
|
|
$ |
9,404,419 |
|
|
$ |
9,332,684 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Book value per share (3) |
|
$ |
9.22 |
|
|
$ |
10.41 |
|
|
$ |
18.58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1) Investments include net unrealized gains (losses) on securities |
|
|
165,851 |
|
|
|
159,733 |
|
|
|
40,028 |
|
(2) Loss reserves, net of reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves |
|
|
6,308,679 |
|
|
|
6,372,763 |
|
|
|
4,944,623 |
|
(3) Shares outstanding |
|
|
125,562 |
|
|
|
125,101 |
|
|
|
125,086 |
|
CERTAIN NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended March 31, |
|
|
|
2010 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
|
(Unaudited) |
|
|
|
(in thousands of dollars, except per share data) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diluted earnings per share contribution from
realized gains (losses): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Realized gains (losses) and impairment losses |
|
$ |
26,902 |
|
|
$ |
(17,261 |
) |
Income taxes at 35% (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(6,041 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
After tax realized gains |
|
|
26,902 |
|
|
|
(11,220 |
) |
Weighted average shares |
|
|
124,889 |
|
|
|
123,999 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diluted EPS contribution from realized gains and
impairment losses |
|
$ |
0.22 |
|
|
$ |
(0.09 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1) |
|
Due to the establishment of a valuation allowance income taxes provided are not currently affected by realized gains or losses.
Management believes the diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains or losses provides useful information to
investors because it shows the after-tax effect of these items, which can be discretionary. |
OTHER INFORMATION
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended March 31, |
|
|
|
2010 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
|
(Unaudited) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
New primary insurance written (NIW) (millions) |
|
$ |
1,796 |
|
|
$ |
6,400 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
New risk written (millions): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary |
|
$ |
409 |
|
|
$ |
1,297 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Product mix as a % of primary flow NIW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
> 95% LTVs |
|
|
1 |
% |
|
|
1 |
% |
ARMs |
|
|
1 |
% |
|
|
1 |
% |
Refinances |
|
|
25 |
% |
|
|
58 |
% |
The results of our operations in Australia are included in the financial statements in this
document but the other information in this document does not include our Australian operations,
which are immaterial.
Additional Information
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 2008 |
|
Q1 2009 |
|
Q2 2009 |
|
Q3 2009 |
|
Q4 2009 |
|
Q1 2010 |
New insurance written (billions) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
$ |
5.5 |
|
|
$ |
6.4 |
|
|
$ |
5.9 |
|
|
$ |
4.6 |
|
|
$ |
3.0 |
|
|
$ |
1.8 |
|
Flow |
|
$ |
5.5 |
|
|
$ |
6.4 |
|
|
$ |
5.9 |
|
|
$ |
4.6 |
|
|
$ |
3.0 |
|
|
$ |
1.8 |
|
Bulk |
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Insurance in force (billions) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
$ |
227.0 |
|
|
$ |
223.9 |
|
|
$ |
220.1 |
|
|
$ |
216.8 |
|
|
$ |
212.2 |
|
|
$ |
207.1 |
|
Flow |
|
$ |
195.0 |
|
|
$ |
193.1 |
|
|
$ |
190.6 |
|
|
$ |
188.4 |
|
|
$ |
185.0 |
|
|
$ |
180.9 |
|
Bulk |
|
$ |
32.0 |
|
|
$ |
30.8 |
|
|
$ |
29.5 |
|
|
$ |
28.4 |
|
|
$ |
27.2 |
|
|
$ |
26.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annual Persistency |
|
|
84.4 |
% |
|
|
85.1 |
% |
|
|
85.1 |
% |
|
|
85.2 |
% |
|
|
84.7 |
% |
|
|
85.6 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary IIF (billions) (1) |
|
$ |
227.0 |
|
|
$ |
223.9 |
|
|
$ |
220.1 |
|
|
$ |
216.8 |
|
|
$ |
212.2 |
|
|
$ |
207.1 |
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
$ |
183.1 |
|
|
$ |
181.8 |
|
|
$ |
179.7 |
|
|
$ |
178.0 |
|
|
$ |
175.2 |
|
|
$ |
171.5 |
|
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
$ |
14.0 |
|
|
$ |
13.5 |
|
|
$ |
13.0 |
|
|
$ |
12.5 |
|
|
$ |
12.1 |
|
|
$ |
11.7 |
|
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
$ |
3.8 |
|
|
$ |
3.5 |
|
|
$ |
3.4 |
|
|
$ |
3.3 |
|
|
$ |
3.2 |
|
|
$ |
3.1 |
|
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
$ |
26.1 |
|
|
$ |
25.1 |
|
|
$ |
24.0 |
|
|
$ |
23.0 |
|
|
$ |
21.7 |
|
|
$ |
20.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary RIF (billions) (1) |
|
$ |
59.0 |
|
|
$ |
57.9 |
|
|
$ |
56.7 |
|
|
$ |
55.7 |
|
|
$ |
54.3 |
|
|
$ |
53.0 |
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
$ |
47.0 |
|
|
$ |
46.4 |
|
|
$ |
45.7 |
|
|
$ |
45.1 |
|
|
$ |
44.2 |
|
|
$ |
43.3 |
|
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
$ |
3.8 |
|
|
$ |
3.7 |
|
|
$ |
3.5 |
|
|
$ |
3.4 |
|
|
$ |
3.3 |
|
|
$ |
3.2 |
|
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
$ |
1.1 |
|
|
$ |
1.0 |
|
|
$ |
1.0 |
|
|
$ |
1.0 |
|
|
$ |
0.9 |
|
|
$ |
0.9 |
|
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
$ |
7.1 |
|
|
$ |
6.8 |
|
|
$ |
6.5 |
|
|
$ |
6.2 |
|
|
$ |
5.9 |
|
|
$ |
5.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk in force by FICO |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% (FICO 620 & >) |
|
|
90.7 |
% |
|
|
91.0 |
% |
|
|
91.0 |
% |
|
|
91.3 |
% |
|
|
90.9 |
% |
|
|
91.0 |
% |
% (FICO 575 - 619) |
|
|
7.2 |
% |
|
|
7.0 |
% |
|
|
7.0 |
% |
|
|
6.8 |
% |
|
|
7.1 |
% |
|
|
7.0 |
% |
% (FICO < 575) |
|
|
2.1 |
% |
|
|
2.0 |
% |
|
|
2.0 |
% |
|
|
1.9 |
% |
|
|
2.0 |
% |
|
|
2.0 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Coverage Ratio (RIF/IIF) (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
26.0 |
% |
|
|
25.9 |
% |
|
|
25.8 |
% |
|
|
25.7 |
% |
|
|
25.6 |
% |
|
|
25.6 |
% |
Prime (620 & >) |
|
|
25.7 |
% |
|
|
25.5 |
% |
|
|
25.4 |
% |
|
|
25.3 |
% |
|
|
25.2 |
% |
|
|
25.2 |
% |
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
|
27.5 |
% |
|
|
27.8 |
% |
|
|
26.9 |
% |
|
|
27.2 |
% |
|
|
27.3 |
% |
|
|
27.4 |
% |
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
|
28.3 |
% |
|
|
28.6 |
% |
|
|
29.4 |
% |
|
|
30.3 |
% |
|
|
28.1 |
% |
|
|
29.0 |
% |
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
|
27.2 |
% |
|
|
27.1 |
% |
|
|
27.1 |
% |
|
|
27.0 |
% |
|
|
27.2 |
% |
|
|
26.9 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Loan Size (thousands) (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total IIF |
|
$ |
154.10 |
|
|
$ |
154.59 |
|
|
$ |
155.23 |
|
|
$ |
155.74 |
|
|
$ |
155.96 |
|
|
$ |
155.73 |
|
Flow |
|
$ |
151.10 |
|
|
$ |
151.82 |
|
|
$ |
152.68 |
|
|
$ |
153.44 |
|
|
$ |
153.89 |
|
|
$ |
153.78 |
|
Bulk |
|
$ |
175.38 |
|
|
$ |
174.52 |
|
|
$ |
173.99 |
|
|
$ |
172.96 |
|
|
$ |
171.72 |
|
|
$ |
170.71 |
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
$ |
151.24 |
|
|
$ |
152.08 |
|
|
$ |
153.09 |
|
|
$ |
153.93 |
|
|
$ |
154.48 |
|
|
$ |
154.43 |
|
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
$ |
132.38 |
|
|
$ |
131.70 |
|
|
$ |
131.22 |
|
|
$ |
130.85 |
|
|
$ |
130.41 |
|
|
$ |
129.95 |
|
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
$ |
121.23 |
|
|
$ |
120.48 |
|
|
$ |
119.69 |
|
|
$ |
119.10 |
|
|
$ |
118.44 |
|
|
$ |
118.04 |
|
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
$ |
208.02 |
|
|
$ |
207.02 |
|
|
$ |
205.89 |
|
|
$ |
204.70 |
|
|
$ |
203.34 |
|
|
$ |
202.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary IIF # of loans (1) |
|
|
1,472,757 |
|
|
|
1,448,547 |
|
|
|
1,418,000 |
|
|
|
1,392,256 |
|
|
|
1,360,456 |
|
|
|
1,329,741 |
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
|
1,210,712 |
|
|
|
1,195,290 |
|
|
|
1,174,036 |
|
|
|
1,156,520 |
|
|
|
1,133,802 |
|
|
|
1,110,680 |
|
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
|
105,698 |
|
|
|
102,339 |
|
|
|
98,835 |
|
|
|
95,753 |
|
|
|
92,741 |
|
|
|
90,138 |
|
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
|
30,718 |
|
|
|
29,669 |
|
|
|
28,628 |
|
|
|
27,835 |
|
|
|
26,986 |
|
|
|
26,227 |
|
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
|
125,629 |
|
|
|
121,249 |
|
|
|
116,501 |
|
|
|
112,148 |
|
|
|
106,927 |
|
|
|
102,696 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary IIF Delinquent Roll Forward # of Loans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beginning Delinquent Inventory |
|
|
151,908 |
|
|
|
182,188 |
|
|
|
195,718 |
|
|
|
212,237 |
|
|
|
235,610 |
|
|
|
250,440 |
|
Plus: New Notices |
|
|
76,987 |
|
|
|
68,912 |
|
|
|
63,067 |
|
|
|
66,783 |
|
|
|
61,114 |
|
|
|
53,393 |
|
Less: Cures |
|
|
(39,846 |
) |
|
|
(47,337 |
) |
|
|
(36,784 |
) |
|
|
(31,963 |
) |
|
|
(33,167 |
) |
|
|
(49,210 |
) |
Less: Paids (including those charged to a deductible or captive) |
|
|
(5,832 |
) |
|
|
(6,348 |
) |
|
|
(6,904 |
) |
|
|
(7,305 |
) |
|
|
(9,175 |
) |
|
|
(9,194 |
) |
Less: Rescissions and denials |
|
|
(1,029 |
) |
|
|
(1,697 |
) |
|
|
(2,860 |
) |
|
|
(4,142 |
) |
|
|
(3,942 |
) |
|
|
(4,185 |
) |
Ending Delinquent Inventory |
|
|
182,188 |
|
|
|
195,718 |
|
|
|
212,237 |
|
|
|
235,610 |
|
|
|
250,440 |
|
|
|
241,244 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary IIF # of Delinquent Loans (1) |
|
|
182,188 |
|
|
|
195,718 |
|
|
|
212,237 |
|
|
|
235,610 |
|
|
|
250,440 |
|
|
|
241,244 |
|
Flow |
|
|
122,693 |
|
|
|
134,745 |
|
|
|
150,304 |
|
|
|
171,584 |
|
|
|
185,828 |
|
|
|
180,898 |
|
Bulk |
|
|
59,495 |
|
|
|
60,973 |
|
|
|
61,933 |
|
|
|
64,026 |
|
|
|
64,612 |
|
|
|
60,346 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
|
95,672 |
|
|
|
106,184 |
|
|
|
119,174 |
|
|
|
137,789 |
|
|
|
150,642 |
|
|
|
148,101 |
|
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
|
31,907 |
|
|
|
31,633 |
|
|
|
33,418 |
|
|
|
36,335 |
|
|
|
37,711 |
|
|
|
34,821 |
|
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
|
13,300 |
|
|
|
12,666 |
|
|
|
12,819 |
|
|
|
13,432 |
|
|
|
13,687 |
|
|
|
12,536 |
|
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
|
41,309 |
|
|
|
45,235 |
|
|
|
46,826 |
|
|
|
48,054 |
|
|
|
48,400 |
|
|
|
45,786 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 2008 |
|
Q1 2009 |
|
Q2 2009 |
|
Q3 2009 |
|
Q4 2009 |
|
Q1 2010 |
Primary IIF Delinquency Rates (1) |
|
|
12.37 |
% |
|
|
13.51 |
% |
|
|
14.97 |
% |
|
|
16.92 |
% |
|
|
18.41 |
% |
|
|
18.14 |
% |
Flow |
|
|
9.51 |
% |
|
|
10.59 |
% |
|
|
12.04 |
% |
|
|
13.97 |
% |
|
|
15.46 |
% |
|
|
15.38 |
% |
Bulk |
|
|
32.64 |
% |
|
|
34.53 |
% |
|
|
36.54 |
% |
|
|
39.04 |
% |
|
|
40.87 |
% |
|
|
39.29 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
|
7.90 |
% |
|
|
8.88 |
% |
|
|
10.15 |
% |
|
|
11.91 |
% |
|
|
13.29 |
% |
|
|
13.33 |
% |
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
|
30.19 |
% |
|
|
30.91 |
% |
|
|
33.81 |
% |
|
|
37.95 |
% |
|
|
40.66 |
% |
|
|
38.63 |
% |
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
|
43.30 |
% |
|
|
42.69 |
% |
|
|
44.78 |
% |
|
|
48.26 |
% |
|
|
50.72 |
% |
|
|
47.80 |
% |
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
|
32.88 |
% |
|
|
37.31 |
% |
|
|
40.19 |
% |
|
|
42.85 |
% |
|
|
45.26 |
% |
|
|
44.58 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Paid Claims (millions) (1) (4) |
|
$ |
310 |
|
|
$ |
356 |
|
|
$ |
380 |
|
|
$ |
417 |
|
|
$ |
515 |
|
|
$ |
519 |
|
Flow |
|
$ |
155 |
|
|
$ |
170 |
|
|
$ |
209 |
|
|
$ |
234 |
|
|
$ |
318 |
|
|
$ |
339 |
|
Bulk |
|
$ |
137 |
|
|
$ |
165 |
|
|
$ |
141 |
|
|
$ |
148 |
|
|
$ |
160 |
|
|
$ |
145 |
|
Reinsurance |
|
$ |
(6 |
) |
|
$ |
(9 |
) |
|
$ |
(10 |
) |
|
$ |
(12 |
) |
|
$ |
(10 |
) |
|
$ |
(17 |
) |
Other |
|
$ |
24 |
|
|
$ |
30 |
|
|
$ |
40 |
|
|
$ |
47 |
|
|
$ |
47 |
|
|
$ |
52 |
|
Reinsurance terminations (4) |
|
$ |
(260 |
) |
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
(41 |
) |
|
$ |
(78 |
) |
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
$ |
135 |
|
|
$ |
160 |
|
|
$ |
188 |
|
|
$ |
204 |
|
|
$ |
279 |
|
|
$ |
288 |
|
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
$ |
55 |
|
|
$ |
59 |
|
|
$ |
57 |
|
|
$ |
57 |
|
|
$ |
58 |
|
|
$ |
62 |
|
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
$ |
24 |
|
|
$ |
24 |
|
|
$ |
26 |
|
|
$ |
21 |
|
|
$ |
24 |
|
|
$ |
21 |
|
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
$ |
78 |
|
|
$ |
92 |
|
|
$ |
79 |
|
|
$ |
100 |
|
|
$ |
117 |
|
|
$ |
113 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary Average Claim Payment (thousands) (1) |
|
$ |
50.6 |
|
|
$ |
53.6 |
|
|
$ |
51.4 |
|
|
$ |
53.0 |
|
|
$ |
52.6 |
|
|
$ |
53.1 |
|
Flow |
|
$ |
41.6 |
|
|
$ |
42.1 |
|
|
$ |
44.6 |
|
|
$ |
46.6 |
|
|
$ |
47.4 |
|
|
$ |
48.6 |
|
Bulk |
|
$ |
66.9 |
|
|
$ |
74.7 |
|
|
$ |
66.4 |
|
|
$ |
67.7 |
|
|
$ |
67.4 |
|
|
$ |
67.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prime (620 & >) |
|
$ |
44.1 |
|
|
$ |
46.4 |
|
|
$ |
47.7 |
|
|
$ |
47.3 |
|
|
$ |
48.6 |
|
|
$ |
49.9 |
|
A minus (575 - 619) |
|
$ |
48.8 |
|
|
$ |
53.3 |
|
|
$ |
46.7 |
|
|
$ |
48.9 |
|
|
$ |
46.6 |
|
|
$ |
48.2 |
|
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
|
$ |
46.2 |
|
|
$ |
50.3 |
|
|
$ |
51.5 |
|
|
$ |
50.3 |
|
|
$ |
51.1 |
|
|
$ |
49.9 |
|
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
|
$ |
73.3 |
|
|
$ |
75.2 |
|
|
$ |
68.5 |
|
|
$ |
76.4 |
|
|
$ |
71.4 |
|
|
$ |
68.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk sharing Arrangements Flow Only |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% insurance inforce subject to risk sharing |
|
|
30.0 |
% |
|
|
28.9 |
% |
|
|
28.1 |
% |
|
|
25.6 |
% |
|
|
20.9 |
% |
|
|
20.6 |
% |
% Quarterly NIW subject to risk sharing |
|
|
24.1 |
% |
|
|
6.5 |
% |
|
|
5.0 |
% |
|
|
4.7 |
% |
|
|
4.6 |
% |
|
|
4.9 |
% |
Premium ceded (millions) |
|
$ |
42.4 |
|
|
$ |
31.1 |
|
|
$ |
29.4 |
|
|
$ |
23.3 |
|
|
$ |
19.6 |
|
|
$ |
19.1 |
|
Captive trust fund assets (millions) (4) |
|
$ |
582 |
|
|
$ |
605 |
|
|
$ |
625 |
|
|
$ |
604 |
|
|
$ |
547 |
|
|
$ |
562 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Captive Reinsurance Ceded Losses Incurred Flow Only (millions) |
|
$ |
165.5 |
|
|
$ |
70.6 |
|
|
$ |
60.6 |
|
|
$ |
60.5 |
|
|
$ |
28.8 |
|
|
$ |
22.7 |
|
Active excess of Loss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Book Year 2005 |
|
$ |
3.7 |
|
|
$ |
5.2 |
|
|
$ |
6.2 |
|
|
$ |
7.1 |
|
|
$ |
4.9 |
|
|
$ |
5.5 |
|
Book Year 2006 |
|
$ |
13.7 |
|
|
$ |
11.0 |
|
|
$ |
9.9 |
|
|
$ |
10.1 |
|
|
$ |
4.9 |
|
|
$ |
3.9 |
|
Book Year 2007 |
|
$ |
28.8 |
|
|
$ |
27.1 |
|
|
$ |
20.5 |
|
|
$ |
27.7 |
|
|
$ |
9.3 |
|
|
$ |
3.0 |
|
Book Year 2008 |
|
$ |
2.4 |
|
|
$ |
3.4 |
|
|
$ |
2.5 |
|
|
$ |
3.1 |
|
|
$ |
0.6 |
|
|
$ |
2.8 |
|
Active quota Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Book Year 2005 |
|
$ |
3.8 |
|
|
$ |
3.2 |
|
|
$ |
3.3 |
|
|
$ |
1.6 |
|
|
$ |
1.4 |
|
|
$ |
1.5 |
|
Book Year 2006 |
|
$ |
5.8 |
|
|
$ |
4.3 |
|
|
$ |
5.1 |
|
|
$ |
2.4 |
|
|
$ |
2.3 |
|
|
$ |
1.9 |
|
Book Year 2007 |
|
$ |
16.8 |
|
|
$ |
14.3 |
|
|
$ |
10.7 |
|
|
$ |
3.8 |
|
|
$ |
2.7 |
|
|
$ |
3.6 |
|
Book Year 2008 |
|
$ |
2.7 |
|
|
$ |
2.1 |
|
|
$ |
2.4 |
|
|
$ |
1.2 |
|
|
$ |
1.0 |
|
|
$ |
0.5 |
|
Terminated agreements |
|
$ |
87.8 |
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
3.5 |
|
|
$ |
1.7 |
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Direct Pool Risk in Force (millions) (2) |
|
$ |
1,902 |
|
|
$ |
1,799 |
|
|
$ |
1,763 |
|
|
$ |
1,681 |
|
|
$ |
1,668 |
|
|
$ |
1,613 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation Risk to Capital (5) |
|
|
12.9:1 |
|
|
|
14.2:1 |
|
|
|
13.8:1 |
|
|
|
17.3:1 |
|
|
|
19.4:1 |
|
|
|
20.2:1 |
(6) |
Combined Insurance Companies Risk to Capital (5) |
|
|
14.7:1 |
|
|
|
16.1:1 |
|
|
|
15.8:1 |
|
|
|
19.7:1 |
|
|
|
22.1:1 |
|
|
|
23.2:1 |
(6) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GAAP loss ratio (insurance operations only) (3) |
|
|
254.4 |
% |
|
|
213.0 |
% |
|
|
221.7 |
% |
|
|
330.8 |
% |
|
|
288.0 |
% |
|
|
167.1 |
% |
GAAP expense ratio (insurance operations only) |
|
|
13.4 |
% |
|
|
14.7 |
% |
|
|
15.2 |
% |
|
|
16.4 |
% |
|
|
14.4 |
% |
|
|
18.4 |
% |
|
|
|
(1) |
|
In accordance with industry practice, loans approved by GSE and other
automated underwriting (AU) systems under doc waiver programs that do not
require verification of borrower income are classified by MGIC as full doc.
Based in part on information provide by the GSEs, MGIC estimates full doc loans
of this type were approximately 4% of 2007 NIW. Information for other periods
is not available. MGIC understands these AU systems grant such doc waivers for
loans they judge to have higher credit quality. MGIC also understands that the
GSEs terminated their doc waiver programs in the second half of 2008.
Reduced documentation loans only appear in the reduced documentation category
and do not appear in any of the other categories. |
|
(2) |
|
Represents contractual aggregate loss limits and, at March 31, 2010,
December 31, 2009 and March 31, 2009, respectively, for $1.9 billion, $2.0
billion and $2.5 billion of risk without such limits, risk is calculated at
$181 million, $190 million and $149 million, the estimated amounts that would
credit enhance these loans to a AA level based on a rating agency model. One
of our pool insurance insureds is computing the aggregate loss limit under a
pool insurance policy at a higher level than we are computing this limit
because we believe the original aggregate limits decreases over time while the
insured believes the limit remains constant. At March 31, 2010, the difference
was approximately $420 million and under our interpretation will increase in
August 2010 and in August of years thereafter. This difference has had no
effect on our results of operations because the aggregate paid losses plus the
portion of our loss reserves attributable to this policy have been below our
interpretation of the loss limit and is expected to be below that limit for
some time. In addition, this difference has had no effect on our pool loss
forecasts because we do not include the benefits of aggregate loss limits in
those forecasts. |
|
(3) |
|
As calculated, does not reflect any effects due to premium deficiency. |
|
(4) |
|
Net paid claims, as presented, does not include amounts received in
conjunction with termination of reinsurance agreements. In a termination, the
agreement is cancelled, with no future premium ceded and funds for any incurred
but unpaid losses transferred to us. The transferred funds result in an
increase in the investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents) and
there is a corresponding decrease in reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves.
This results in an increase in net loss reserves, which is offset by a decrease
in net losses paid. |
|
(5) |
|
Beginning with our June 30, 2009 risk to capital calculations we have
deducted risk in force on policies currently in default and for which loss
reserves have been established. Risk to capital ratios for prior periods were
not recalculated. |
|
(6) |
|
Preliminary |
exv99w2
Exhibit 99.2
In the 1st quarter we reported a net loss of $150.1 million, with a diluted loss
per share of $1.20.
New insurance written for the quarter totaled $1.8 billion with market share approximating 20%
through February as March data is not yet available. The lower volumes were driven by the
continued high share of FHA, a loss of business from a major lender as a result of our rescission
practices, and a lower overall origination market. Persistency improved modestly to 85.6% from
84.7% last quarter. As a result of the cancellations outpacing NIW in the quarter insurance in
force declined to $207.1 billion from $212.2 billion last quarter and $223.9 billion 1 year ago.
For the quarter, total revenues were $371 million, below the $435 million reported in the first
quarter of last year. Net premiums earned of $272 million were below the $356 million reported in
the same period last year. The average earned premium yield was 51.9 bps down from 57 bps last
quarter. The reduction is principally due to the increase in estimate for premium refunds on
expected future rescissions as well as a decrease in the average insurance in force. Without this
accrual the premium yield would have remained relatively flat.
Investment income for the first quarter was $69 million compared to $77 million reported in the
first quarter of 2009. This decrease was primarily the result of lower investment yield on our
portfolio. Net Realized investment gains were $26.9 million in the period, compared to net
realized investment loss of $17.3 million in the same period last year. Within the
$26.9 million of net realized investment gains for the period were $6.1 million of
other-than-temporary impairments.
Underwriting expenses totaled $59.9 million versus $56.2 million last quarter and $62.5 million in
the first quarter of last year. Cash and investments totaled $8.3 billion as of March
31st including cash and short term investments at the holding company of approximately
$85 million.
Losses incurred were $455 million versus $881 million last quarter and $758 million in the first
quarter of last year with loss reserves now totaling $6.6 billion. The decrease in losses incurred
was attributable to a decrease of 9,196 or 3.7% decline in the number of primary delinquent loans.
This was the first decline in the primary delinquent inventory since Q1 2007.
The quarter over quarter decline in delinquent inventory was broad based;
|
|
|
Flow down 4,900 units or 2.7% |
|
|
|
|
Bulk down 4,200 units or 6.6%. |
|
|
|
|
2007 was down 2,100 or 2.6%, |
|
|
|
|
2006 was down 3,300 units or 6% |
|
|
|
|
2005 down 1,300 or 4% |
|
|
|
|
CA down 1,100 or 6% |
|
|
|
|
FL down 1,300 units or 3% |
New notice activity was down 12.6% in the quarter continuing a downward path that began to emerge
last year and may be the first signs of credit burnout. We will be watching the new notice
development over the next several months to see if this quarter was an aberration or not. Cures
increased 48% from last quarter and 4% from last year. This increase was primarily attributable to
an improved cure rate on the more recent or newer notices and an increase in loan modifications
(12,200 in Q1 10 versus 4,800 in Q4 2009).
Net paid claims in the quarter were $519 million versus $515 million last quarter and $356 million
in the first quarter of last year. The average primary paid claim was $53,070 up slightly from
$52,606 last quarter and down from $53,585 one year ago. We would expect claim payments to be at
this level or higher through the end of the year as most foreclosure delays have been either
removed or have been incorporated into the servicers processing time. The levels of loan
modifications, and their performance, remain a wild card.
Total primary and pool loss mitigation savings for the quarter was $759 million ($373 million in
rescission/denials), up from last quarter of $506 million ($366 million in rescissions) and
3rd quarter of $513 million ($390 million in rescissions). The primary reason for the
increased loss mitigation savings was a result of increased loan modifications in the quarter. We
would expect rescission activity to remain at approximately this level until we work through the
2006 1st half 2008 books of business.
Loan modifications, including HAMP, totaled $367 million versus $120 million in Q4 2009 and $105
million in Q3 2009. HAMP modifications totaled $281 million versus $63 million in Q4 09 and $13
million in Q3 09. Since April 2009 a total of 54,100 of our delinquent loans were reported to us
as beginning the HAMP trial period, of which 11,600 have cured (approximately 9,000 in Q1 2010 or
18% of all cures reported). Approximately 43,100 of the primary delinquent inventory were reported
to us as being in the HAMP trial process as of March 31, 2010. It is still early to analyze
re-default rates on these loan modifications since the substantial majority of cures have occurred
over the last 4 months.
In January we thought the origination market might approximate $1.5 trillion in 2010. Since then
consensus forecast has drifted down to approximately 1.1 to 1.3 trillion. This coupled with lost
share from a large customer and as I mentioned previously and the continued large share that the
FHA is taking has lowered our expectation for full year NIW to $10 $15 billion.
In conclusion, clearly we are not out of the woods yet, as evidenced by our financial results which
continue to be impacted by the high level of delinquencies and low level of cures that occurred
over the last 2 years and the current level of NIW. However, as I mentioned last quarter we
believe that there is a role for private capital to provide credit protection and believe that view
is shared by many policy makers and for the first time in a long time we are beginning to see a few
signs of encouragement namely, a higher level of cures, fewer new notices, and increased
modifications.
With that lets take some questions.
exv99w3
Exhibit 99.3
MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG)
Investor Presentation
April 2010
|
Forward Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors
Our revenues and losses may be affected by the risk factors discussed at the
end of this presentation, which should be considered integral to this
presentation. These factors may also cause actual results to differ materially
from the results contemplated by forward looking statements that we may
make. Forward looking statements consist of statements which relate to
matters other than historical fact, including matters that inherently refer to
future events. Among others, statements that include words such as we
"believe", "anticipate", or "expect", or words of similar import, are forward
looking statements. We are not undertaking any obligation to update any
forward looking statements or other statements we may make even though
these statements may be affected by events or circumstances occurring after
the forward looking statements or other statements were made. No reader of
this presentation should rely on the fact that such statements are current at
any time other than the time at which this presentation was given.
|
MGIC 1st Quarter Update
Premiums declined
Originations
MI penetration
Market share
Losses incurred declined for the first
time since Q1 2007
Inventory, notices and cures by vintage
showed improvement
$6.6bn of gross reserves
Expense ratio increase due to lower
production
1 Refers to Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp.
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Improving Macroeconomic and Housing Conditions
Home prices appear to be stabilizing
Unemployment appears to have peaked
HAMP and other loan modifications gaining
traction
Cure rates improving
1 Source: S&P Composite-20 Seasonally Adjusted index
2 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
3 Source: MICA
4 Source: MGIC. Includes primary and pool.
Home Prices and Rates
Recent MI Trends3
HAMP Trial Started4
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Rescissions Have Contributed to Loss Mitigation
Bulk Rescissions
Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10
$ Rescinded 33.9 61.8 77.1 112.3 143.6 122.9 125.89
% Rescinded of Claims Recd in a Qtr 0.241 0.282 0.336 0.341 0.309
~100% of claims received in 2008 resolved
~95% of Q3 2009 claims resolved
Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10
$ Rescinded 10.3 22.8 52.5 113.7 172.8 172.6 170.053
% Rescinded of Claims Recd in a Qtr 0.197 0.234 0.268 0.251 0.215
~100% of claims received in 2008 resolved
~92% of Q3 2009 claims resolved
Flow Rescissions
Source: MGIC
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Improved Performance of Existing Book of Business
New Notices
Cures
Default Inventory
Source: Company Data
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Delinquency Performance by Vintage Improving
Notices
Notices
Cures
Cures
Flow
Bulk
Source: Company Data
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Analysis of Potential Losses in Existing Book
Key Assumptions
Home prices and employment have bottomed with
modest recovery beginning early 2010
Steady cure rate improvement from current levels
to historic norms by early 2013 excluding impact
of rescissions
From current levels of 60-65% to 90-95%
Rescissions peak in 2010 followed by a modest
decline in 2011 before more material declines
thereafter
Loan modification programs modestly mitigate
losses (less than 5% reduction to gross losses)
$400 million captive reinsurance loss recovery
Premiums: $207 billion in force, 56 bps average
net premium rate, 85% average persistency
Runoff Scenario Results at 3/31/20101 Runoff Scenario Results at 3/31/20101 Runoff Scenario Results at 3/31/20101
Cash and Investments $8.2 Billion $8.2 Billion
Net Premiums Collected 5.8 5.8
Net Claims Paid (11.9) (11.9)
Remaining Claims Paying Resources $2.1 Billion $2.1 Billion
Projected losses on existing book of business will
result in GAAP net losses for the foreseeable future
We believe the size of our future net losses
will depend primarily on the amount of our
incurred and paid losses
We currently expect to incur substantial
losses for 2010 and in declining amounts
thereafter
1 Assumes investment income offsets operating expenses.
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Better Positioned to Weather Losses Amongst
Public Monoline Peers
Source: Company filings, websites and financial supplements.
1 For MGIC and PMI, claims paying resources include statutory surplus, contingency reserves and statutory loss reserves as at 12/31/2009. Risk in force represents
gross primary and pool risk in force. For PMI, information is for US MI only.
2 Delinquent loan balance includes pool inventory. Reserves represent GAAP loss reserves as disclosed in company filings. For Radian, reserves represents loss
reserves in MI business only. For PMI, data is for US MI only.
3 Includes Financial Guaranty claims paying resources ($1,059 million) as per Radian's Q4 earnings release presentation.
Claims Paying Resources (% of RIF)1
Reserves per Delinquent Loan2
Including Radian
Financial
Guaranty Claims
Paying
Resources
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
MGIC is Well Positioned to Take
Advantage of the Current Environment
Consistent Market Leader1
Ability to Write Business Going Forward
Highly Efficient and Low Cost Platform2
1 Source: Inside Mortgage Finance. MGIC estimated market share ~20% for Jan - Feb 2010.
2 For Radian, expense ratio represents MI business only. For PMI, ratio is for US MI only. MGIC's ratio for Q1 2010 increased to 18.4% as a result of its reduced volume
of insurance written. Source: Company Filings.
3 Received waivers from AZ, CA, FL, IL, MO and WI.
FY 2009 Expense Ratios
34 jurisdictions have no risk to capital or
MPP requirement
Received waivers from 6 out of the 17
states that have minimum capital
thresholds3
Waivers vary in length
Established MIC as a NewCo to write
business in states where waiver cannot be
obtained
MIC is a wholly owned subsidiary of
MGIC
$200mm funded from MGIC
Approved by GSEs through 2011
Approved by insurance regulator
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Current Environment is Conducive to
Write Attractive New Business
Mortgage Originations ($bn)1
Fewer competing products
Less capacity in industry
Stricter underwriting
Sustainability of FHA market share?
2009 FHA FICO3
1. Source: Private MI insurance written data from Inside Mortgage Finance. Mortgage Origination data from Mortgage Bankers Association.
2. Source: Inside Mortgage Finance; Data based on $ originations.
3. Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Report on status of FHA financial status, dated November 12, 2009. Based on 2009 vintage.
FHA 2009 FICO >720 business
volume: ~$100 Billion
Market Share As A Percent
Of Insured Originations2
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Underwriting Standards Have Improved Dramatically
Not eligible:
Cash-out refinances
Investment properties
3 to 4- unit properties
Manufactured homes
Reduced Documentation
FICOs < 660
Loans with potential negative amortization
Third Party Originator Policy - tracking and
monitoring performance of TPO activity resulting
in ~1,700 TPO's being declared ineligible
More restrictive guidelines for soft geographic
markets (i.e. AZ, CA, FL, NV)
Guidelines changes would have resulted in a
decline of 84% of notice activity in 2007 book of
business
Impact of Guideline Changes
See Risk Factors in Appendix
84%
Decline
|
Potential for Attractive Returns on New Business
Illustrative Returns on New Business
2007 NIW1
LTV
FICO
65bps
60bps
Average Net
Premium %
2009 NIW1
1 Includes flow and bulk business in 2007. In 2009, MGIC did not write any bulk business.
Moving to risk based pricing in May 2010 which
will improve our competitiveness with FHA in the
720+ FICO score
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Prior to the Recent Housing Downturn that Resulted
in Significant Losses in 2007 through Q1 2010,
MGIC Has Historically been Profitable
1 ROE calculated as net income divided by average shareholder's equity (ex. AOCI). Source: Company filings.
2 See Return on Capital on page 16.
See Risk Factors in Appendix
|
Appendix
Appendix - MGIC Risk Factors
|
MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
Even though our plan to write new insurance in MIC has received approval from the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin ("OCI") and the GSEs, because MGIC is not expected to meet statutory
risk-to-capital requirements to write new business in various states, we cannot guarantee that the implementation of our plan will allow us to continue to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis.
The insurance laws or regulations of 17 states, including Wisconsin, require a mortgage insurer to maintain a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to the risk in force (or a similar measure) in order for the
mortgage insurer to continue to write new business. We refer to these requirements as the risk-to-capital requirement. While formulations of minimum capital may vary in certain states, the most common measure
applied allows for a maximum permitted risk-to-capital ratio of 25 to 1. At December 31, 2009, MGIC's risk-to-capital ratio was 19.4 to 1. Based upon internal company estimates, it is likely that MGIC's risk-to-
capital ratio over the next few years will materially exceed 25 to 1.
In December 2009, the OCI issued an order waiving, until December 31, 2011, the minimum risk-to-capital ratio. MGIC has also applied for waivers in all other jurisdictions that have risk-to-capital requirements.
MGIC has received waivers from some of these states. These waivers expire at various times, with the earliest expiration being December 31, 2010. Some jurisdictions have denied the request because a waiver is
not authorized under the jurisdictions' statutes or regulations and others may deny the request on other grounds. The OCI and other state insurance departments, in their sole discretion, may modify, terminate or
extend their waivers. If the OCI or other state insurance department modifies or terminates its waiver, or if it fails to renew its waiver after expiration, MGIC would be prevented from writing new business anywhere,
in the case of the waiver from the OCI, or in the particular jurisdiction, in the case of the other waivers, if MGIC's risk-to-capital ratio exceeds 25 to 1 unless MGIC raised additional capital to enable it to comply with
the risk-to-capital requirement. New insurance written in the states that have risk-to-capital ratio limits represented approximately 50% of new insurance written in 2009. If we were prevented from writing new
business, our insurance operations would be in run-off, meaning no new loans would be insured but loans previously insured would continue to be covered, with premiums continuing to be received and losses
continuing to be paid, on those loans, until we either met the applicable risk-to-capital requirement or obtained a necessary waiver to allow us to once again write new business.
We cannot assure you that the OCI or any other jurisdiction that has granted a waiver of its risk-to-capital ratio requirements will not modify or revoke the waiver, that it will renew the waiver when it expires or that
we could raise additional capital to comply with the risk-to-capital requirement. Depending on the circumstances, the amount of additional capital we might need could be substantial. See the risk factor titled "Your
ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise or if the holders of our outstanding convertible debentures convert their debentures into shares of our common stock."
We are in the final stages of implementing a plan to write new mortgage insurance in MIC in selected jurisdictions in order to address the likelihood that in the future MGIC will not meet the minimum regulatory
capital requirements discussed above and may not be able to obtain appropriate waivers of these requirements in all jurisdictions in which minimum requirements are present. In December 2009, the OCI also
approved a transaction under which MIC will be eligible to write new mortgage guaranty insurance policies only in jurisdictions where MGIC does not meet minimum capital requirements similar to those waived by
the OCI and does not obtain a waiver of those requirements from that jurisdiction's regulatory authority. MIC has received the necessary approvals to write business in all of the jurisdictions in which MGIC would
be prohibited from continuing to write new business due to MGIC's failure to meet applicable regulatory capital requirements and obtain waivers of those requirements.
In October 2009, we, MGIC and MIC entered into an agreement with Fannie Mae (the "Fannie Mae Agreement") under which MGIC agreed to contribute $200 million to MIC (which MGIC has done) and Fannie
Mae approved MIC as an eligible mortgage insurer through December 31, 2011 subject to the terms of the Fannie Mae Agreement. Under the Fannie Mae Agreement, MIC will be eligible to write mortgage
insurance only in those 16 other jurisdictions in which MGIC cannot write new insurance due to MGIC's failure to meet regulatory capital requirements and if MGIC fails to obtain relief from those requirements or a
specified waiver of them. The Fannie Mae Agreement, including certain restrictions imposed on us, MGIC and MIC, is summarized more fully in, and included as an exhibit to, our Form 8-K filed with the Securities
and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") on October 16, 2009.
On February 11, 2010, Freddie Mac notified (the "Freddie Mac Notification") MGIC that it may utilize MIC to write new business in states in which MGIC does not meet minimum regulatory capital requirements to
write new business and does not obtain appropriate waivers of those requirements. This conditional approval to use MIC as a "Limited Insurer" will expire December 31, 2012. This conditional approval includes
terms substantially similar to those in the Fannie Mae Agreement and is summarized more fully in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC on February 16, 2010.
Under the Fannie Mae Agreement, Fannie Mae approved MIC as an eligible mortgage insurer only through December 31, 2011 and Freddie Mac has approved MIC as a "Limited Insurer" only through December
31, 2012. Whether MIC will continue as an eligible mortgage insurer after these dates will be determined by the applicable GSE's mortgage insurer eligibility requirements then in effect. For more information, see
the risk factor titled "MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements." Further, under the Fannie Mae Agreement and the Freddie Mac Notification, MGIC cannot capitalize MIC
with more than the $200 million contribution without prior approval from each GSE, which limits the amount of business MIC can write. We believe that the amount of capital that MGIC has contributed to MIC will be
sufficient to write business for the term of the Fannie Mae Agreement in the jurisdictions in which MIC is eligible to do so. Depending on the level of losses that MGIC experiences in the future, however, it is
possible that regulatory action by one or more jurisdictions, including those that do not have specific regulatory capital requirements applicable to mortgage insurers, may prevent MGIC from continuing to write new
insurance in some or all of the jurisdictions in which MIC is not eligible to write business.
A failure to meet the specific minimum regulatory capital requirements to insure new business does not necessarily mean that MGIC does not have sufficient resources to pay claims on its insurance liabilities.
While we believe that we have claims paying resources at MGIC that exceed our claim obligations on our insurance in force, even in scenarios in which we fail to meet regulatory capital requirements, we cannot
assure you that the events that lead to us failing to meet regulatory capital requirements would not also result in our not having sufficient claims paying resources. Furthermore, our estimates of our claims paying
resources and claim obligations are based on various assumptions. These assumptions include our anticipated rescission activity, future housing values and future unemployment rates. These assumptions are
subject to inherent uncertainty and require judgment by management. Current conditions in the domestic economy make the assumptions about housing values and unemployment highly volatile in the sense that
there is a wide range of reasonably possible outcomes. Our anticipated rescission activity is also subject to inherent uncertainty due to the difficulty of predicting the amount of claims that will be rescinded and the
outcome of any dispute resolution proceedings related to the rescissions we make.
|
MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
We have reported net losses for the last three years, expect to continue to report net losses and cannot assure you when we will return to profitability.
For the years ended December 31, 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively, we had a net loss of $1.3 billion, $0.5 billion and $1.7 billion. We believe the size of our future net losses will depend primarily on the amount
of our incurred and paid losses and to a lesser extent on the amount and profitability of our new business. Our incurred and paid losses are dependent on factors that make prediction of their amounts difficult and
any forecasts are subject to significant volatility. We currently expect to incur substantial losses for 2010 and losses in declining amounts thereafter. Among the assumptions underlying our forecasts are that loan
modification programs will only modestly mitigate losses; that the cure rate steadily improves but does not return to historic norms until early 2013; and our current rescission practices do not change. In this latter
regard, see the risk factor titled "We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the levels we have recently experienced and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions
were proper." Although we currently expect to return to profitability, we cannot assure you when, or if, this will occur. During the last few years our ability to forecast accurately future results has been limited due to
significant volatility in many of the factors that go into our forecasts. The net losses we have experienced have eroded, and any future net losses will erode, our shareholders' equity and could result in equity being
negative.
We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the levels we have recently experienced and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper .
Historically, claims submitted to us on policies we rescinded were not a material portion of our claims resolved during a year. However, beginning in 2008, our rescissions of policies have materially mitigated our
paid losses. In 2009, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by $1.2 billion and in the first quarter of 2010, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by $373 million (both of these figures include amounts that would have
either resulted in a claim payment or been charged to a deductible under a bulk or pool policy, and may have been charged to a captive reinsurer). While we have a substantial pipeline of claims investigations that
we expect will eventually result in future rescissions, we can give no assurance that rescissions will continue to mitigate paid losses at the same level we have recently experienced.
In addition, our loss reserving methodology incorporates the effects we expect rescission activity to have on the losses we will pay on our delinquent inventory. A variance between ultimate actual rescission rates
and these estimates, as result of litigation, settlements or other factors, could materially affect our losses. See the risk factor titled, "Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties and are based on
assumptions that are currently very volatile, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves." We estimate rescissions mitigated our incurred losses by approximately $2.5 billion in 2009, compared
to $0.6 billion in the first quarter of 2010; both of these figures include the benefit of claims not paid as well as the impact on our loss reserves. In recent quarters, approximately 25% of claims received in a quarter
have been resolved by rescissions. At March 31, 2010, we had 241,244 loans in our primary delinquency inventory; the resolution of a material portion of these loans will not involve claims.
If the insured disputes our right to rescind coverage, whether the requirements to rescind are met ultimately would be determined by legal proceedings. Objections to rescission may be made several years after we
have rescinded an insurance policy. Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. and an affiliate ("Countrywide") filed a lawsuit against MGIC alleging that MGIC denied, and continues to deny, valid mortgage insurance claims.
We filed an arbitration case against Countrywide regarding rescissions and Countrywide has responded seeking material damages. For more information about this lawsuit and arbitration case, see the risk factor
titled "We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings." In addition, we continue to discuss with other lenders their objections to material rescissions and are involved in other arbitration
proceedings with respect to rescissions that are not collectively material in amount.
We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings..
Consumers are bringing a growing number of lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and settlement service providers. Seven mortgage insurers, including MGIC, have been involved in litigation alleging violations
of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA.
MGIC's settlement of class action litigation against it under RESPA became final in October 2003. MGIC settled the named plaintiffs' claims in litigation against it under FCRA in late December 2004 following denial
of class certification in June 2004. Since December 2006, class action litigation was separately brought against a number of large lenders alleging that their captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements violated
RESPA. While we are not a defendant in any of these cases, there can be no assurance that we will not be subject to future litigation under RESPA or FCRA or that the outcome of any such litigation would not
have a material adverse effect on us.
We are subject to comprehensive, detailed regulation by state insurance departments. These regulations are principally designed for the protection of our insured policyholders, rather than for the benefit of
investors. Although their scope varies, state insurance laws generally grant broad supervisory powers to agencies or officials to examine insurance companies and enforce rules or exercise discretion affecting
almost every significant aspect of the insurance business. Given the recent significant losses incurred by many insurers in the mortgage and financial guaranty industries, our insurance subsidiaries have been
subject to heightened scrutiny by insurance regulators. State insurance regulatory authorities could take actions, including changes in capital requirements or termination of waivers of capital requirements, that
could have a material adverse effect on us.
In June 2005, in response to a letter from the New York Insurance Department, we provided information regarding captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements and other types of arrangements in which lenders
receive compensation. In February 2006, the New York Insurance Department requested MGIC to review its premium rates in New York and to file adjusted rates based on recent years' experience or to explain
why such experience would not alter rates. In March 2006, MGIC advised the New York Insurance Department that it believes its premium rates are reasonable and that, given the nature of mortgage insurance
risk, premium rates should not be determined only by the experience of recent years. In February 2006, in response to an administrative subpoena from the Minnesota Department of Commerce, which regulates
insurance, we provided the Department with information about captive mortgage reinsurance and certain other matters. We subsequently provided additional information to the Minnesota Department of Commerce,
and beginning in March 2008 that Department has sought additional information as well as answers to questions regarding captive mortgage reinsurance on several occasions. In addition, beginning in June 2008,
we have received subpoenas from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, commonly referred to as HUD, seeking information about captive mortgage reinsurance similar to that requested by the
Minnesota Department of Commerce, but not limited in scope to the state of Minnesota. Other insurance departments or other officials, including attorneys general, may also seek information about or investigate
captive mortgage reinsurance.
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MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings. (Continued)
The anti-referral fee provisions of RESPA provide that HUD as well as the insurance commissioner or attorney general of any state may bring an action to enjoin violations of these provisions of RESPA. The
insurance law provisions of many states prohibit paying for the referral of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition. While we believe our captive reinsurance arrangements are
in conformity with applicable laws and regulations, it is not possible to predict the outcome of any such reviews or investigations nor is it possible to predict their effect on us or the mortgage insurance industry.
Since October 2007 we have been involved in an investigation conducted by the Division of Enforcement of the SEC. The investigation appears to involve disclosure and financial reporting by us and by a co-
investor regarding our respective investments in our Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization ("C-BASS") joint venture. We have provided documents to the SEC and a number of our executive officers, as
well as other employees, have testified. This matter is ongoing and no assurance can be given that the SEC staff will not recommend an enforcement action against our company or one or more of our executive
officers or other employees.
Five previously-filed purported class action complaints filed against us and several of our executive officers were consolidated in March 2009 in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Wisconsin
and Fulton County Employees' Retirement System was appointed as the lead plaintiff. The lead plaintiff filed a Consolidated Class Action Complaint (the "Complaint") on June 22, 2009. Due in part to its length and
structure, it is difficult to summarize briefly the allegations in the Complaint but it appears the allegations are that we and our officers named in the Complaint violated the federal securities laws by misrepresenting
or failing to disclose material information about (i) loss development in our insurance in force, and (ii) C-BASS, including its liquidity. Our motion to dismiss the Complaint was granted on February 18, 2010. On
March 18, 2010, plaintiffs filed a motion for leave to file an amended complaint. Attached to this motion was a proposed Amended Complaint (the "Amended Complaint"). The Amended Complaint alleges that we
and two of our officers named in the Amended Complaint violated the federal securities laws by misrepresenting or failing to disclose material information about C-BASS, including its liquidity, and by failing to
properly account for our investment in C-BASS. The Amended Complaint also names two officers of C-BASS with respect to the Amended Complaint's allegations regarding C-BASS. The purported class period
covered by the Complaint begins on February 6, 2007 and ends on August 13, 2007. The Amended Complaint seeks damages based on purchases of our stock during this time period at prices that were allegedly
inflated as a result of the purported violations of federal securities laws. On April 12, 2010, we filed a motion in opposition to Plaintiff's motion for leave to amend its complaint. With limited exceptions, our bylaws
provide that our officers are entitled to indemnification from us for claims against them of the type alleged in the Amended Complaint. We are unable to predict the outcome of these consolidated cases or estimate
our associated expenses or possible losses. Other lawsuits alleging violations of the securities laws could be brought against us.
Several law firms have issued press releases to the effect that they are investigating us, including whether the fiduciaries of our 401(k) plan breached their fiduciary duties regarding the plan's investment in or
holding of our common stock or whether we breached other legal or fiduciary obligations to our shareholders. With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers and 401(k) plan fiduciaries are entitled to
indemnification from us for claims against them. We intend to defend vigorously any proceedings that may result from these investigations.
As we previously disclosed, for some time we have had discussions with lenders regarding their objections to rescissions that in the aggregate are material. On December 17, 2009, Countrywide filed a complaint
for declaratory relief in the Superior Court of the State of California in San Francisco against MGIC. This complaint alleges that MGIC has denied, and continues to deny, valid mortgage insurance claims submitted
by Countrywide and says it seeks declaratory relief regarding the proper interpretation of the flow insurance policies at issue. On January 19, 2010, we removed this case to the United States District Court for the
Northern District of California. On March 30, 2010, the Court ordered the case remanded to the Superior Court of the State of California in San Francisco. We have asked the Court to stay the remand and plan to
appeal this decision. On February 24, 2010, we commenced an arbitration action against Countrywide seeking a determination that MGIC was entitled to deny and/or rescind coverage on the loans involved in the
arbitration demand, which numbered more than 1,400 loans as of the filing of the demand. On March 16, 2010, Countrywide filed a response to our arbitration action objecting to the arbitrator's jurisdiction in view of
the case initiated by Countrywide in the Superior Court of the State of California and asserting various defenses to the relief sought by MGIC in the arbitration. The response also seeks damages of at least $150
million, exclusive of interest and costs, as a result of purported breaches of flow insurance policies issued by MGIC and additional damages, including exemplary damages, on account of MGIC's purported breach
of an implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing. We intend to defend MGIC against Countrywide's complaint and arbitration response, and to pursue MGIC's claims in the arbitration, vigorously. However, we
are unable to predict the outcome of these proceedings or their effect on us.
In addition to the rescissions at issue with Countrywide, we have a substantial pipeline of claims investigations (including investigations involving loans related to Countrywide) that we expect will eventually result in
future rescissions. For additional information about rescissions, see the risk factor titled "We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the levels we have recently experienced and we may not prevail
in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper."
Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses..
The majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The business practices of the GSEs affect the entire relationship between them and mortgage insurers and include:
the level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of the GSEs' charters (which may be changed by federal legislation) when private mortgage insurance is used as the required
credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages,
the amount of loan level delivery fees (which result in higher costs to borrowers) that the GSEs assess on loans that require mortgage insurance,
whether the GSEs influence the mortgage lender's selection of the mortgage insurer providing coverage and, if so, any transactions that are related to that selection,
the underwriting standards that determine what loans are eligible for purchase by the GSEs, which can affect the quality of the risk insured by the mortgage insurer and the availability of mortgage loans,
the terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the cancellation thresholds established by law, and
the programs established by the GSEs intended to avoid or mitigate loss on insured mortgages and the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must implement such programs.
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MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses. (Continued)
In September 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency ("FHFA") was appointed as the conservator of the GSEs. As their conservator, FHFA controls and directs the operations of the GSEs. The appointment of
FHFA as conservator, the increasing role that the federal government has assumed in the residential mortgage market, our industry's inability, due to capital constraints, to write sufficient business to meet the
needs of the GSEs or other factors may increase the likelihood that the business practices of the GSEs change in ways that may have a material adverse effect on us. In addition, these factors may increase the
likelihood that the charters of the GSEs are changed by new federal legislation. Such changes may allow the GSEs to reduce or eliminate the level of private mortgage insurance coverage that they use as credit
enhancement, which could have a material adverse effect on our revenue, results of operations or financial condition. The Obama administration and certain members of Congress have publicly stated that that
they are considering proposing significant changes to the GSEs. As a result, it is uncertain what role that the GSEs will play in the domestic residential housing finance system in the future or the impact of any such
changes on our business.
For a number of years, the GSEs have had programs under which on certain loans lenders could choose a mortgage insurance coverage percentage that was only the minimum required by their charters, with the
GSEs paying a lower price for these loans ("charter coverage"). The GSEs have also had programs under which on certain loans they would accept a level of mortgage insurance above the requirements of their
charters but below their standard coverage without any decrease in the purchase price they would pay for these loans ("reduced coverage"). Effective January 1, 2010, Fannie Mae broadly expanded the types of
loans eligible for charter coverage and in the second quarter of 2010 Fannie Mae eliminated its reduced coverage program. In recent years, a majority of our volume was on loans with GSE standard coverage, a
substantial portion of our volume has been on loans with reduced coverage, and a minor portion of our volume has been on loans with charter coverage. We charge higher premium rates for higher coverages.
During the first quarter of 2010, the portion of our volume insured at charter coverage has been approximately the same as in the recent years and, due in part to the elimination of reduced coverage by Fannie
Mae, the portion of our volume insured at standard coverage has increased. Also, the pricing changes we plan to implement on May 1, 2010 (see the risk factor titled "The premiums we charge may not be
adequate to compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a result any inadequacy could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.") would eliminate a lender's incentive to use Fannie
Mae charter coverage in place of standard coverage. However, to the extent lenders selling loans to Fannie Mae in the future did choose charter coverage for loans that we insure, our revenues would be reduced
and we could experience other adverse effects.
Both of the GSEs have policies which provide guidelines on terms under which they can conduct business with mortgage insurers, such as MGIC, with financial strength ratings below Aa3/AA-. (MGIC's financial
strength rating from Moody's is Ba3, with a negative outlook; from Standard & Poor's is B+, with a negative outlook,; and from Fitch Ratings Service is BB-, with a negative outlook. For information about how these
policies could affect us, see the risk factor titled "MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements."
MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements.
The majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, each of which has mortgage insurer eligibility requirements. We believe that the GSEs are analyzing their mortgage insurer
eligibility requirements and may make changes to them in the near future. Currently, MGIC is operating with each GSE as an eligible insurer under a remediation plan. We believe that the GSEs view remediation
plans as a continuing process of interaction between a mortgage insurer and MGIC will continue to operate under a remediation plan for the foreseeable future. There can be no assurance that MGIC will be able to
continue to operate as an eligible mortgage insurer under a remediation plan. If MGIC ceases being eligible to insure loans purchased by one or both of the GSEs, it would significantly reduce the volume of our
new business writings.
The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance.
These alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:
lenders using government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, and the Veterans Administration,
lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring,
investors using credit enhancements other than private mortgage insurance, using other credit enhancements in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance coverage, or accepting
credit risk without credit enhancement, and
lenders originating mortgages using piggyback structures to avoid private mortgage insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage with a 10%, 15% or 20%
loan-to-value ratio (referred to as 80-10-10, 80-15-5 or 80-20 loans, respectively) rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% loan-to-value ratio that has private mortgage insurance.
The FHA substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008. We believe that the FHA's market share increased, in part, because mortgage insurers have tightened their underwriting guidelines (which has
led to increased utilization of the FHA's programs) and because of increases in the amount of loan level delivery fees that the GSEs assess on loans (which result in higher costs to borrowers). Recent federal
legislation and programs have also provided the FHA with greater flexibility in establishing new products and have increased the FHA's competitive position against private mortgage insurers.
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MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
Competition or changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
In recent years, the level of competition within the private mortgage insurance industry has been intense as many large mortgage lenders reduced the number of private mortgage insurers with whom they do
business. At the same time, consolidation among mortgage lenders has increased the share of the mortgage lending market held by large lenders. Our private mortgage insurance competitors include:
PMI Mortgage Insurance Company,
Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation,
United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company,
Radian Guaranty Inc.,
Republic Mortgage Insurance Company, whose parent, based on information filed with the SEC through April 12, 2010, is our largest shareholder, and
CMG Mortgage Insurance Company.
Until recently, the mortgage insurance industry had not had new entrants in many years. Recently, Essent Guaranty, Inc. announced that it would begin writing new mortgage insurance. Essent has publicly
reported that one of its investors is JPMorgan Chase which is one of our customers. The perceived increase in credit quality of loans that are being insured today combined with the deterioration of the financial
strength ratings of the existing mortgage insurance companies could encourage new entrants. We understand that one potential new entrant has advertised for employees. The FHA, which in recent years was not
viewed by us as a significant competitor, substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008.
Our relationships with our customers could be adversely affected by a variety of factors, including tightening of and adherence to our underwriting guidelines, which have resulted in our declining to insure some of
the loans originated by our customers, rescission of loans that affect the customer and our decision to discontinue ceding new business under excess of loss captive reinsurance programs. In the fourth quarter of
2009, Countrywide commenced litigation against us as a result of its dissatisfaction with our rescissions practices shortly after Countrywide ceased doing business with us. See the risk factor titled "We are subject
to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings" for more information about this litigation and the arbitration case we filed against Countrywide regarding rescissions. Countrywide and its Bank of America
affiliates accounted for 12.0% of our flow new insurance written in 2008 and 8.3% of our new insurance written in the first three quarters of 2009. In addition, we continue to have discussions with other lenders who
are significant customers regarding their objections to rescissions. The FHA, which in recent years was not viewed by us as a significant competitor, substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008.
We believe some lenders assess a mortgage insurer's financial strength rating as an important element of the process through which they select mortgage insurers. MGIC's financial strength rating from Moody's is
Ba3, with a negative outlook; from Standard & Poor's is B+, with a negative outlook; and from Fitch Ratings Service is BB-, with a negative outlook. Absent additional capital, it is possible that MGIC's financial
strength ratings could decline from these levels. As a result of MGIC's less than investment grade financial strength rating, MGIC may be competitively disadvantaged with these lenders.
Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in the value of borrowers' homes from their value at the time their loans closed may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing.
Losses result from events that reduce a borrower's ability to continue to make mortgage payments, such as unemployment, and whether the home of a borrower who defaults on his mortgage can be sold for an
amount that will cover unpaid principal and interest and the expenses of the sale. In general, favorable economic conditions reduce the likelihood that borrowers will lack sufficient income to pay their mortgages and
also favorably affect the value of homes, thereby reducing and in some cases even eliminating a loss from a mortgage default. A deterioration in economic conditions, including an increase in unemployment,
generally increases the likelihood that borrowers will not have sufficient income to pay their mortgages and can also adversely affect housing values, which in turn can influence the willingness of borrowers with
sufficient resources to make mortgage payments to do so when the mortgage balance exceeds the value of the home. Housing values may decline even absent a deterioration in economic conditions due to
declines in demand for homes, which in turn may result from changes in buyers' perceptions of the potential for future appreciation, restrictions on and the cost of mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting
standards, liquidity issues affecting lenders or higher interest rates generally or other factors. The residential mortgage market in the United States has for some time experienced a variety of poor or worsening
economic conditions, including a material nationwide decline in housing values, with declines continuing in 2010 in a number of geographic areas. Home values may continue to deteriorate and unemployment
levels may continue to increase or remain elevated.
The mix of business we write also affects the likelihood of losses occurring.
Even when housing values are stable or rising, certain types of mortgages have higher probabilities of claims. These types include loans with loan-to-value ratios over 95% (or in certain markets that have
experienced declining housing values, over 90%), FICO credit scores below 620, limited underwriting, including limited borrower documentation, or total debt-to-income ratios of 38% or higher, as well as loans
having combinations of higher risk factors. As of March 31, 2010, approximately 60% of our primary risk in force consisted of loans with loan-to-value ratios equal to or greater than 95%, 9.10% had FICO credit
scores below 620, and 12.2% had limited underwriting, including limited borrower documentation. A material portion of these loans were written in 2005- 2007 or the first quarter of 2008. (In accordance with
industry practice, loans approved by GSEs and other automated underwriting systems under "doc waiver" programs that do not require verification of borrower income are classified by us as "full documentation."
For additional information about such loans, see Note 8 to our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009.
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007 we made a series of changes to our underwriting guidelines in an effort to improve the risk profile of our new business. Requirements imposed by new guidelines, however,
only affect business written under commitments to insure loans that are issued after those guidelines become effective. Business for which commitments are issued after new guidelines are announced and before
they become effective is insured by us in accordance with the guidelines in effect at time of the commitment even if that business would not meet the new guidelines. For commitments we issue for loans that close
and are insured by us, a period longer than a calendar quarter can elapse between the time we issue a commitment to insure a loan and the time we report the loan in our risk in force, although this period is
generally shorter.
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MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
The mix of business we write also affects the likelihood of losses occurring. (Continued)
From time to time, in response to market conditions, we increase or decrease the types of loans that we insure. In addition, we make exceptions to our underwriting guidelines on a loan-by-loan basis and for certain
customer programs. Together these exceptions accounted for less than 5% of the loans we insured in recent quarters. The changes to our underwriting guidelines since the fourth quarter of 2007 include the
creation of two tiers of "restricted markets." Our underwriting criteria for restricted markets do not allow insurance to be written on certain loans that could be insured if the property were located in an unrestricted
market. Beginning in September 2009, we removed several markets from our restricted markets list and moved several other markets from our Tier Two restricted market list (for which our underwriting guidelines
are most limiting) to our Tier One restricted market list. In addition, we have made other changes that have relaxed our underwriting guidelines and expect to continue to make changes in appropriate circumstances
that will do so in the future.
As of March 31, 2010, approximately 3.5% of our primary risk in force written through the flow channel, and 41.0% of our primary risk in force written through the bulk channel, consisted of adjustable rate
mortgages in which the initial interest rate may be adjusted during the five years after the mortgage closing ("ARMs"). We classify as fixed rate loans adjustable rate mortgages in which the initial interest rate is
fixed during the five years after the mortgage closing. We believe that when the reset interest rate significantly exceeds the interest rate at loan origination, claims on ARMs would be substantially higher than for
fixed rate loans. Moreover, even if interest rates remain unchanged, claims on ARMs with a "teaser rate" (an initial interest rate that does not fully reflect the index which determines subsequent rates) may also be
substantially higher because of the increase in the mortgage payment that will occur when the fully indexed rate becomes effective. In addition, we have insured "interest-only" loans, which may also be ARMs, and
loans with negative amortization features, such as pay option ARMs. We believe claim rates on these loans will be substantially higher than on loans without scheduled payment increases that are made to
borrowers of comparable credit quality.
Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our underwriting and pricing models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment income will be
adequate to compensate for actual losses even under our current underwriting guidelines. We do, however, believe that given the various changes in our underwriting guidelines that were effective beginning in the
first quarter of 2008, our insurance written beginning in the second quarter of 2008 will generate underwriting profits.
Because we establish loss reserves only upon a loan default rather than based on estimates of our ultimate losses, losses may have a disproportionate adverse effect on our earnings in certain periods.
In accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, commonly referred to as GAAP, we establish loss reserves only for loans in default. Reserves are established for reported insurance losses and loss
adjustment expenses based on when notices of default on insured mortgage loans are received. Reserves are also established for estimated losses incurred on notices of default that have not yet been reported to
us by the servicers (this is often referred to as "IBNR"). We establish reserves using estimated claims rates and claims amounts in estimating the ultimate loss. Because our reserving method does not take account
of the impact of future losses that could occur from loans that are not delinquent, our obligation for ultimate losses that we expect to occur under our policies in force at any period end is not reflected in our financial
statements, except in the case where a premium deficiency exists. As a result, future losses may have a material impact on future results as losses emerge.
Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions that are currently very volatile, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves.
We establish reserves using estimated claim rates and claim amounts in estimating the ultimate loss on delinquent loans. The estimated claim rates and claim amounts represent our best estimates of what we will
actually pay on the loans in default as of the reserve date and incorporates anticipated mitigation from rescissions.
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires judgment by management. Current conditions in the housing and mortgage industries make the assumptions that we use to
establish loss reserves more volatile than they would otherwise be. The actual amount of the claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could be adversely
affected by several factors, including a deterioration of regional or national economic conditions, including unemployment, leading to a reduction in borrowers' income and thus their ability to make mortgage
payments, a drop in housing values that could materially reduce our ability to mitigate potential loss through property acquisition and resale or expose us to greater loss on resale of properties obtained through the
claim settlement process and mitigation from rescissions being materially less than assumed. Changes to our estimates could result in material impact to our results of operations, even in a stable economic
environment, and there can be no assurance that actual claims paid by us will not be substantially different than our loss reserves.
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MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
The premiums we charge may not be adequate to compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a result any inadequacy could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.
We set premiums at the time a policy is issued based on our expectations regarding likely performance over the long-term. Our premiums are subject to approval by state regulatory agencies, which can delay or
limit our ability to increase our premiums. Generally, we cannot cancel the mortgage insurance coverage or adjust renewal premiums during the life of a mortgage insurance policy. As a result, higher than
anticipated claims generally cannot be offset by premium increases on policies in force or mitigated by our non-renewal or cancellation of insurance coverage. The premiums we charge, and the associated
investment income, may not be adequate to compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the insurance coverage provided to customers. An increase in the number or size of claims, compared to what we
anticipate, could adversely affect our results of operations or financial condition.
Subject to regulatory approval, effective May 1, 2010, we will price our new insurance written after considering, among other things, the borrower's credit score. We made these rate changes to be more competitive
with insurance programs offered by the FHA. Had these rate changes been in place with respect to new insurance written in the second half of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010, they would have resulted in lower
premiums being charged for a substantial majority of our new insurance written. However, during the first quarter of 2010 (continuing a trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2009), the average coverage
percentage of our new insurance written increased. We believe the increased coverage was due in part to the elimination of Fannie Mae's reduced coverage program. See the risk factor titled "Changes in the
business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses." Because we charge higher premiums for higher
coverages, had our reduced premium rates been in effect during the first quarter, the effect of lower premium rates would have been largely offset by the increase in premiums due to higher coverages. We cannot
predict whether our new business written in the future will continue to have higher coverages. For more information about our rate changes, see our Form 8-K that was filed with the
SEC on February 23, 2010.
In January 2008, we announced that we had decided to stop writing the portion of our bulk business that insures loans which are included in Wall Street securitizations because the performance of loans included in
such securitizations deteriorated materially in the fourth quarter of 2007 and this deterioration was materially worse than we experienced for loans insured through the flow channel or loans insured through the
remainder of our bulk channel. As of December 31, 2007 we established a premium deficiency reserve of approximately $1.2 billion. As of March 31, 2010, the premium deficiency reserve was $180 million. At each
date, the premium deficiency reserve is the present value of expected future losses and expenses that exceeded the present value of expected future premium and already established loss reserves on these bulk
transactions.
The mortgage insurance industry is experiencing material losses, especially on the 2006 and 2007 books. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on general economic conditions, including
unemployment, and the direction of home prices, which in turn will be influenced by general economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or general economic conditions
with confidence, there is significant uncertainty surrounding what our ultimate losses will be on our 2006 and 2007 books. Our current expectation, however, is that these books will continue to generate material
incurred and paid losses for a number of years. There can be no assurance that additional premium deficiency reserves on Wall Street Bulk or on other portions of our insurance portfolio will not be required.
We may not be able to repay the amounts that we owe under our Senior Notes due in September 2011.
As of April 16, 2010, we had a total of approximately $85 million in short-term investments available at our holding company. These investments are virtually all of our holding company's liquid assets. As of April 16,
2010, our holding company had approximately $78.4 million of Senior Notes due in September 2011 (since the beginning of 2009, our holding company purchased $121.6 million principal amount of these Notes)
and $300 million of Senior Notes due in November 2015 outstanding. On an annual basis as of March 31, 2010, our holding company's current use of funds for interest payments on its Senior Notes approximates
$21 million.
While under the Fannie Mae Agreement and the Freddie Mac Notification MGIC may not pay dividends to our holding company without the GSEs' consent, the GSEs have consented to dividends of not more than
$100 million in the aggregate to purchase existing debt obligations of our holding company or to pay such obligations at maturity. Any dividends from MGIC to our holding company would require the approval of the
OCI, and may require other approvals.
See Notes 6 and 7 to our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009 for more information regarding our holding company's assets and
liabilities as of that date.
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MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
Loan modification and other similar programs may not provide material benefits to us and our losses on loans that re-default can be higher than what we would have paid had the loan not been modified.
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, the federal government, including through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC") and the GSEs, and several lenders have adopted programs to modify loans to
make them more affordable to borrowers with the goal of reducing the number of foreclosures. For the quarter ending March 31, 2010, we were notified of modifications involving loans with risk in force of
approximately $734 million.
One such program is the Home Affordable Modification Program ("HAMP"), which was announced by the US Treasury in early 2009. Some of HAMP's eligibility criteria require current information about borrowers,
such as his or her current income and non-mortgage debt payments. Because the GSEs and servicers do not share such information with us, we cannot determine with certainty the number of loans in our
delinquent inventory that are eligible to participate in HAMP. We believe that it could take several months from the time a borrower has made all of the payments during HAMP's three month "trial modification"
period for the loan to be reported to us as a cured delinquency. We are aware of approximately 43,100 loans in our primary delinquent inventory at March 31, 2010 for which the HAMP trial period has begun and
approximately 11,600 delinquent primary loans have cured their delinquency after entering HAMP. We rely on information provided to us by the GSEs and servicers. We do not receive all of the information from
such sources that is required to determine with certainty the number of loans that are participating in, or have successfully completed, HAMP.
Under HAMP, a net present value test (the "NPV Test") is used to determine if loan modifications will be offered. For loans owned or guaranteed by the GSEs, servicers may, depending on the results of the NPV
Test and other factors, be required to offer loan modifications, as defined by HAMP, to borrowers. As of December 1, 2009, the GSEs changed how the NPV Test is used. These changes made it more difficult for
some loans to be modified under HAMP. While we lack sufficient data to determine the impact of these changes, we believe that they may materially decrease the number of our loans that will participate in HAMP.
In January 2010 the United States Treasury department has further modified the HAMP eligibility requirements. Effective June 1, 2010 a servicer may evaluate and initiate a HAMP trial modification for a borrower
only after the servicer receives certain documents that allow the servicer to verify the borrower's income and the cause of the borrower's financial hardship. Previously, these documents were not required to be
submitted until after the successful completion of HAMP's trial modification period. We believe that this will decrease the number of new HAMP trial modifications.
The effect on us of loan modifications depends on how many modified loans subsequently re-default, which in turn can be affected by changes in housing values. Re-defaults can result in losses for us that could be
greater than we would have paid had the loan not been modified. At this point, we cannot predict with a high degree of confidence what the ultimate re-default rate will be, and therefore we cannot ascertain with
confidence whether these programs will provide material benefits to us. In addition, because we do not have information in our database for all of the parameters used to determine which loans are eligible for
modification programs, our estimates of the number of loans qualifying for modification programs are inherently uncertain. If legislation is enacted to permit a mortgage balance to be reduced in bankruptcy, we
would still be responsible to pay the original balance if the borrower re-defaulted on that mortgage after its balance had been reduced. Various government entities and private parties have enacted foreclosure (or
equivalent) moratoriums. Such a moratorium does not affect the accrual of interest and other expenses on a loan. Unless a loan is modified during a moratorium to cure the default, at the expiration of the
moratorium additional interest and expenses would be due which could result in our losses on loans subject to the moratorium being higher than if there had been no moratorium.
Eligibility under loan modification programs can also adversely affect us by creating an incentive for borrowers who are able to make their mortgage payments to become delinquent in an attempt to obtain the
benefits of a modification. New notices of delinquency are a factor that increases our incurred losses. l
If interest rates decline, house prices appreciate or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements change, the length of time that our policies remain in force could decline and result in declines in our revenue.
In each year, most of our premiums are from insurance that has been written in prior years. As a result, the length of time insurance remains in force, which is also generally referred to as persistency, is a
significant determinant of our revenues. The factors affecting the length of time our insurance remains in force include:
the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on the insurance in force, which affects the vulnerability of the insurance in force to refinancings, and
mortgage insurance cancellation policies of mortgage investors along with the current value of the homes underlying the mortgages in the insurance in force.
During the 1990s, our year-end persistency ranged from a high of 87.4% at December 31, 1990 to a low of 68.1% at December 31, 1998. Since 2000, our year-end persistency ranged from a high of 84.7% at
December 31, 2009 to a low of 47.1% at December 31, 2003. Future premiums on our insurance in force represent a material portion of our claims paying resources.
Your ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise or if the holders of our outstanding convertible debentures convert their debentures into shares of our common stock.
As noted above in the risk factor titled "Even though our plan to write new insurance in MIC has received approval from the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin ("OCI") and the GSEs,
because MGIC is not expected to meet statutory risk-to-capital requirements to write new business in various states, we cannot guarantee that the implementation of our plan will allow us to continue to write new
insurance on an uninterrupted basis," we may be required to raised additional equity capital. Any such future sales would dilute your ownership interest in our company. In addition, the market price of our common
stock could decline as a result of sales of a large number of shares or similar securities in the market or the perception that such sales could occur.
We have approximately $390 million principal amount of 9% Convertible Junior Subordinated Debentures outstanding. The principal amount of the debentures is currently convertible, at the holder's option, at an
initial conversion rate, which is subject to adjustment, of 74.0741 common shares per $1,000 principal amount of debentures. This represents an initial conversion price of approximately $13.50 per share. We have
elected to defer the payment of a total of approximately $55 million of interest on these debentures. We may also defer additional interest in the future. If a holder elects to convert its debentures, the interest that
has been deferred on the debentures being converted is also converted into shares of our common stock. The conversion rate for such deferred interest is based on the average price that our shares traded at
during a 5-day period immediately prior to the election to convert the associated debentures.
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MGIC Risk Factors
Risk Related to Our Business
If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues.
The factors that affect the volume of low-down-payment mortgage originations include:
restrictions on mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards and liquidity issues affecting lenders,
the level of home mortgage interest rates,
the health of the domestic economy as well as conditions in regional and local economies,
housing affordability,
population trends, including the rate of household formation,
the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect whether refinance loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance, and
government housing policy encouraging loans to first-time homebuyers.
A decline in the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations could decrease demand for mortgage insurance, decrease our new insurance written and reduce our revenues.
The Internal Revenue Service has proposed significant adjustments to our taxable income for 2000 through 2007.
The Internal Revenue Service ("IRS") has completed separate examinations of our federal income tax returns for the years 2000 through 2004 and 2005 through 2007 and has issued assessments
for unpaid taxes, interest and penalties. The primary adjustment in both examinations relates to our treatment of the flow through income and loss from an investment in a portfolio of residual
interests of Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits ("REMICS"). This portfolio has been managed and maintained during years prior to, during and subsequent to the examination period. The
IRS has indicated that it does not believe that, for various reasons, we have established sufficient tax basis in the REMIC residual interests to deduct the losses from taxable income. We disagree
with this conclusion and believe that the flow through income and loss from these investments was properly reported on our federal income tax returns in accordance with applicable tax laws and
regulations in effect during the periods involved and have appealed these adjustments. The appeals process is ongoing and may last for an extended period of time, but at this time it is difficult to
predict with any certainty when it may conclude. The assessment for unpaid taxes related to the REMIC issue for these years is $197.1 million in taxes and accuracy-related penalties, plus
applicable interest. Other adjustments during taxable years 2000 through 2007 are not material, and have been agreed to with the IRS. On July 2, 2007, we made a payment on account of $65.2
million with the United States Department of the Treasury to eliminate the further accrual of interest. We believe, after discussions with outside counsel about the issues raised in the examinations
and the procedures for resolution of the disputed adjustments, that an adequate provision for income taxes has been made for potential liabilities that may result from these assessments. If the
outcome of this matter differs materially from our estimates, it could have a material impact on our effective tax rate, results of operations and cash flows.
We could be adversely affected if personal information on consumers that we maintain is improperly disclosed.
As part of our business, we maintain large amounts of personal information on consumers. While we believe we have appropriate information security policies and systems to prevent unauthorized
disclosure, there can be no assurance that unauthorized disclosure, either through the actions of third parties or employees, will not occur. Unauthorized disclosure could adversely affect our
reputation and expose us to material claims for damages.
The implementation of the Basel II capital accord, or other changes to our customers' capital requirements, may discourage the use of mortgage insurance.
In 1988, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision developed the Basel Capital Accord (Basel I), which set out international benchmarks for assessing banks' capital adequacy requirements. In
June 2005, the Basel Committee issued an update to Basel I (as revised in November 2005, Basel II). Basel II was implemented by many banks in the United States and many other countries in
2009 and may be implemented by the remaining banks in the United States and many other countries in 2010. Basel II affects the capital treatment provided to mortgage insurance by domestic and
international banks in both their origination and securitization activities.
The Basel II provisions related to residential mortgages and mortgage insurance, or other changes to our customers' capital requirements, may provide incentives to certain of our bank customers
not to insure mortgages having a lower risk of claim and to insure mortgages having a higher risk of claim. The Basel II provisions may also alter the competitive positions and financial performance
of mortgage insurers in other ways.
We may not be able to recover the capital we invested in our Australian operations for many years and may not recover all of such capital.
We have committed significant resources to begin international operations, primarily in Australia, where we started to write business in June 2007. In view of our need to dedicate capital to our
domestic mortgage insurance operations, we have reduced our Australian headcount and are no longer writing new business in Australia. In addition to the general economic and insurance business
related factors discussed above, we are subject to a number of other risks from having deployed capital in Australia, including foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and interest-rate volatility
particular to Australia.
We are susceptible to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans that we insure.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. A recent trend in the mortgage lending and mortgage loan servicing industry has been towards consolidation of
loan servicers. This reduction in the number of servicers could lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. In addition, current housing market trends
have led to significant increases in the number of delinquent mortgage loans requiring servicing. These increases have strained the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to undertake
mitigation efforts that could help limit our losses. Future housing market conditions could lead to additional such increases. Managing a substantially higher volume of non-performing loans could
lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage.
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Investor Presentation
April 2010
MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG)
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exv99w4
Exhibit 99.4
Even though our plan to write new insurance in MIC has received approval from the Office of
the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin (OCI) and the GSEs, because MGIC is not
expected to meet statutory risk-to-capital requirements to write new business in various states, we
cannot guarantee that the implementation of our plan will allow us to continue to write new
insurance on an uninterrupted basis.
The insurance laws or regulations of 17 states, including Wisconsin, require a mortgage
insurer to maintain a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to the risk in force (or a
similar measure) in order for the mortgage insurer to continue to write new business. We refer to
these requirements as the risk-to-capital requirement. While formulations of minimum capital may
vary in certain states, the most common measure applied allows for a maximum permitted
risk-to-capital ratio of 25 to 1. At December 31, 2009, MGICs risk-to-capital ratio was 19.4 to
1. Based upon internal company estimates, it is likely that MGICs risk-to-capital ratio over the
next few years will materially exceed 25 to 1.
In December 2009, the OCI issued an order waiving, until December 31, 2011, the minimum
risk-to-capital ratio. MGIC has also applied for waivers in all other jurisdictions that have
risk-to-capital requirements. MGIC has received waivers from some of these states. These waivers
expire at various times, with the earliest expiration being December 31, 2010. Some jurisdictions
have denied the request because a waiver is not authorized under the jurisdictions statutes or
regulations and others may deny the request on other grounds. The OCI and other state insurance
departments, in their sole discretion, may modify, terminate or extend their waivers. If the OCI or
other state insurance department modifies or terminates its waiver, or if it fails to renew its
waiver after expiration, MGIC would be prevented from writing new business anywhere, in the case of
the waiver from the OCI, or in the particular jurisdiction, in the case of the other waivers, if
MGICs risk-to-capital ratio exceeds 25 to 1 unless MGIC raised additional capital to enable it to
comply with the risk-to-capital requirement. New insurance written in the states that have
risk-to-capital ratio limits represented approximately 50% of new insurance written in 2009. If we
were prevented from writing new business, our insurance operations would be in run-off, meaning no
new loans would be insured but loans previously insured would continue to be covered, with premiums
continuing to be received and losses continuing to be paid, on those loans, until we either met the
applicable risk-to-capital requirement or obtained a necessary waiver to allow us to once again
write new business.
We cannot assure you that the OCI or any other jurisdiction that has granted a waiver of its
risk-to-capital ratio requirements will not modify or revoke the waiver, that it will renew the
waiver when it expires or that we could raise additional capital to comply with the risk-to-capital
requirement. Depending on the circumstances, the amount of additional capital we might need could
be substantial. See the risk factor titled Your ownership in our company may be diluted by
additional capital that we raise or if the holders of our outstanding convertible debentures
convert their debentures into shares of our common stock.
We are in the final stages of implementing a plan to write new mortgage insurance in MIC in
selected jurisdictions in order to address the likelihood that in the future MGIC will not meet the
minimum regulatory capital requirements discussed above and may not be able to obtain appropriate
waivers of these requirements in all jurisdictions in which minimum requirements are present. In
December 2009, the OCI also approved a transaction under which MIC will be eligible to write new
mortgage guaranty insurance policies only in jurisdictions where MGIC does not meet minimum capital
requirements similar to those waived by the OCI and does not obtain a waiver of those requirements
from that jurisdictions regulatory authority. MIC has received the necessary approvals to write
business in all of the jurisdictions in which MGIC would be prohibited from continuing to write new
business due to MGICs failure to meet applicable regulatory capital requirements and obtain
waivers of those requirements.
In October 2009, we, MGIC and MIC entered into an agreement with Fannie Mae (the Fannie Mae
Agreement) under which MGIC agreed to contribute $200 million to MIC (which MGIC has done) and
Fannie Mae approved MIC as an eligible mortgage insurer through December 31, 2011 subject to the
terms of the Fannie Mae Agreement. Under the Fannie Mae Agreement, MIC will be eligible to write
mortgage insurance only in those 16 other jurisdictions in which MGIC cannot write new insurance
due to MGICs failure to meet regulatory capital requirements and if MGIC fails to obtain relief
from those requirements or a specified waiver of them. The Fannie Mae Agreement, including certain
restrictions imposed on us, MGIC and MIC, is summarized more fully in, and included as an exhibit
to, our Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) on October 16, 2009.
On February 11, 2010, Freddie Mac notified (the Freddie Mac Notification) MGIC that it may
utilize MIC to write new business in states in which MGIC does not meet minimum regulatory capital
requirements to write new business and does not obtain appropriate waivers of those requirements.
This conditional approval to use MIC as a Limited Insurer will expire December 31, 2012. This
conditional approval includes terms substantially similar to those in the Fannie Mae Agreement and
is summarized more fully in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC on February 16, 2010.
Under the Fannie Mae Agreement, Fannie Mae approved MIC as an eligible mortgage insurer only
through December 31, 2011 and Freddie Mac has approved MIC as a Limited Insurer only through
December 31, 2012. Whether MIC will continue as an eligible mortgage insurer after these dates will
be determined by the applicable GSEs mortgage insurer eligibility requirements then in effect. For
more information, see the risk factor titled MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs mortgage
insurer eligibility requirements. Further, under the Fannie Mae Agreement and the Freddie Mac
Notification, MGIC cannot capitalize MIC with more than the $200 million contribution without prior
approval from each GSE, which limits the amount of business MIC can write. We believe that the
amount of capital that MGIC has contributed to MIC will be sufficient to write business for the
term of the Fannie Mae Agreement in the jurisdictions in which MIC is eligible to do so. Depending
on the level of losses that MGIC experiences in the future, however, it is possible that regulatory
action by one or more jurisdictions, including those that do not have specific regulatory capital
requirements applicable to mortgage insurers, may prevent MGIC from continuing to write new
insurance in some or all of the jurisdictions in which MIC is not eligible to write business.
A failure to meet the specific minimum regulatory capital requirements to insure new business
does not necessarily mean that MGIC does not have sufficient resources to pay claims on its
insurance liabilities. While we believe that we have claims paying resources at MGIC that exceed
our claim obligations on our insurance in force, even in scenarios in which we fail to meet
regulatory capital requirements, we cannot assure you that the events that lead to us failing to
meet regulatory capital requirements would not also result in our not having sufficient claims
paying resources. Furthermore, our estimates of our claims paying resources and claim obligations
are based on various assumptions. These assumptions include our anticipated rescission activity,
future housing values and future unemployment rates. These assumptions are subject to inherent
uncertainty and require judgment by management. Current conditions in the domestic economy make the
assumptions about housing values and unemployment highly volatile in the sense that there is a wide
range of reasonably possible outcomes. Our anticipated rescission activity is also subject to
inherent uncertainty due to the difficulty of predicting the amount of claims that will be
rescinded and the outcome of any dispute resolution proceedings related to the rescissions we make.
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We have reported net losses for the last three years, expect to continue to report net losses and
cannot assure you when we will return to profitability.
For the years ended December 31, 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively, we had a net loss of $1.3
billion, $0.5 billion and $1.7 billion. We believe the size of our future net losses will depend
primarily on the amount of our incurred and paid losses and to a lesser extent on the amount and
profitability of our new business. Our incurred and paid losses are dependent on factors that make
prediction of their amounts difficult and any forecasts are subject to significant volatility. We
currently expect to incur substantial losses for 2010 and losses in declining amounts thereafter.
Among the assumptions underlying our forecasts are that loan modification programs will only
modestly mitigate losses; that the cure rate steadily improves but does not return to historic
norms until early 2013; and there is no change to our current rescission practices. In this latter
regard, see the risk factor titled We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the
levels we have recently experienced and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our
rescissions were proper. Although we currently expect to return to profitability, we cannot
assure you when, or if, this will occur. During the last few years our ability to forecast
accurately future results has been limited due to significant volatility in many of the factors
that go into our forecasts. The net losses we have experienced have eroded, and any future net
losses will erode, our shareholders equity and could result in equity being negative.
We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the levels we have recently experienced
and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper.
Historically, claims submitted to us on policies we rescinded were not a material portion of
our claims resolved during a year. However, beginning in 2008, our rescissions of policies have
materially mitigated our paid losses. In 2009, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by $1.2
billion and in the first quarter of 2010, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by $373 million
(both of these figures include amounts that would have either resulted in a claim payment or been
charged to a deductible under a bulk or pool policy, and may have been charged to a captive
reinsurer). While we have a substantial pipeline of claims investigations that we expect will
eventually result in future rescissions, we can give no assurance that rescissions will continue to
mitigate paid losses at the same level we have recently experienced.
In addition, our loss reserving methodology incorporates the effects we expect rescission
activity to have on the losses we will pay on our delinquent inventory. A variance between ultimate
actual rescission rates and these estimates, as result of litigation, settlements or other factors,
could materially affect our losses. See the risk factor titled, Because loss reserve estimates are
subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions that are currently very volatile, paid claims
may be substantially different than our loss reserves. We estimate rescissions mitigated our
incurred losses by approximately $2.5 billion in 2009, compared to $0.6 billion in the first
quarter of 2010; both of these figures include the benefit of claims not paid as well as the impact
on our loss reserves. In recent quarters, approximately 25% of claims received in a quarter have
been resolved by rescissions. At March 31, 2010, we had 241,244 loans in our primary delinquency
inventory; the resolution of a material portion of these loans will not involve claims.
If the insured disputes our right to rescind coverage, whether the requirements to rescind are
met ultimately would be determined by legal proceedings. Objections to rescission may be made
several years after we have rescinded an insurance policy. Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. and an
affiliate (Countrywide) filed a lawsuit against MGIC alleging that MGIC denied, and continues to
deny, valid mortgage insurance claims. We filed an arbitration case against Countrywide regarding
rescissions and Countrywide has responded seeking material damages. For more information about this
lawsuit and arbitration case, see the risk factor titled We are subject to the risk of private
litigation and regulatory proceedings. In addition, we continue to discuss with other lenders
their objections to material rescissions and are involved in other arbitration proceedings with
respect to rescissions that are not collectively material in amount.
3
We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings.
Consumers are bringing a growing number of lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and
settlement service providers. Seven mortgage insurers, including MGIC, have been involved in
litigation alleging violations of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement
Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit
Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA. MGICs settlement of class action litigation
against it under RESPA became final in October 2003. MGIC settled the named plaintiffs claims in
litigation against it under FCRA in late December 2004 following denial of class certification in
June 2004. Since December 2006, class action litigation was separately brought against a number of
large lenders alleging that their captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements violated RESPA. While
we are not a defendant in any of these cases, there can be no assurance that we will not be subject
to future litigation under RESPA or FCRA or that the outcome of any such litigation would not have
a material adverse effect on us.
We are subject to comprehensive, detailed regulation by state insurance departments. These
regulations are principally designed for the protection of our insured policyholders, rather than
for the benefit of investors. Although their scope varies, state insurance laws generally grant
broad supervisory powers to agencies or officials to examine insurance companies and enforce rules
or exercise discretion affecting almost every significant aspect of the insurance business. Given
the recent significant losses incurred by many insurers in the mortgage and financial guaranty
industries, our insurance subsidiaries have been subject to heightened scrutiny by insurance
regulators. State insurance regulatory authorities could take actions, including changes in capital
requirements or termination of waivers of capital requirements, that could have a material adverse
effect on us.
In June 2005, in response to a letter from the New York Insurance Department, we provided
information regarding captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements and other types of arrangements in
which lenders receive compensation. In February 2006, the New York Insurance Department requested
MGIC to review its premium rates in New York and to file adjusted rates based on recent years
experience or to explain why such experience would not alter rates. In March 2006, MGIC advised the
New York Insurance Department that it believes its premium rates are reasonable and that, given the
nature of mortgage insurance risk, premium rates should not be determined only by the experience of
recent years. In February 2006, in response to an administrative subpoena from the Minnesota
Department of Commerce, which regulates insurance, we provided the Department with information
about captive mortgage reinsurance and certain other matters. We subsequently provided additional
information to the Minnesota Department of Commerce, and beginning in March 2008 that Department
has sought additional information as well as answers to questions regarding captive mortgage
reinsurance on several occasions. In addition, beginning in June 2008, we have received subpoenas
from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, commonly referred to as HUD, seeking
information about captive mortgage reinsurance similar to that requested by the Minnesota
Department of Commerce, but not limited in scope to the state of Minnesota. Other insurance
departments or other officials, including attorneys general, may also seek information about or
investigate captive mortgage reinsurance.
The anti-referral fee provisions of RESPA provide that HUD as well as the insurance
commissioner or attorney general of any state may bring an action to enjoin violations of these
provisions of RESPA. The insurance law provisions of many states prohibit paying for the referral
of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition. While we believe
our captive reinsurance arrangements are in conformity with applicable laws and regulations, it is
not possible to predict the outcome of any such reviews or investigations nor is it possible to
predict their effect on us or the mortgage insurance industry.
Since October 2007 we have been involved in an investigation conducted by the Division of
Enforcement of the SEC. The investigation appears to involve disclosure and financial reporting by
us and by a co-investor regarding our respective investments in our Credit-Based Asset Servicing
and
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Securitization (C-BASS) joint venture. We have provided documents to the SEC and a number of our
executive officers, as well as other employees, have testified. This matter is ongoing and no
assurance can be given that the SEC staff will not recommend an enforcement action against our
company or one or more of our executive officers or other employees.
Five previously-filed purported class action complaints filed against us and several of our
executive officers were consolidated in March 2009 in the United States District Court for the
Eastern District of Wisconsin and Fulton County Employees Retirement System was appointed as the
lead plaintiff. The lead plaintiff filed a Consolidated Class Action Complaint (the Complaint) on
June 22, 2009. Due in part to its length and structure, it is difficult to summarize briefly the
allegations in the Complaint but it appears the allegations are that we and our officers named in
the Complaint violated the federal securities laws by misrepresenting or failing to disclose
material information about (i) loss development in our insurance in force, and (ii) C-BASS,
including its liquidity. Our motion to dismiss the Complaint was granted on February 18, 2010. On
March 18, 2010, plaintiffs filed a motion for leave to file an amended complaint. Attached to this
motion was a proposed Amended Complaint (the Amended Complaint). The Amended Complaint alleges
that we and two of our officers named in the Amended Complaint violated the federal securities laws
by misrepresenting or failing to disclose material information about C-BASS, including its
liquidity, and by failing to properly account for our investment in C-BASS. The Amended Complaint
also names two officers of C-BASS with respect to the Amended Complaints allegations regarding
C-BASS. The purported class period covered by the Complaint begins on February 6, 2007 and ends on
August 13, 2007. The Amended Complaint seeks damages based on purchases of our stock during this
time period at prices that were allegedly inflated as a result of the purported violations of
federal securities laws. On April 12, 2010, we filed a motion in opposition to Plaintiffs motion
for leave to amend its complaint. With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers are
entitled to indemnification from us for claims against them of the type alleged in the Amended
Complaint. We are unable to predict the outcome of these consolidated cases or estimate our
associated expenses or possible losses. Other lawsuits alleging violations of the securities laws
could be brought against us.
Several law firms have issued press releases to the effect that they are investigating us,
including whether the fiduciaries of our 401(k) plan breached their fiduciary duties regarding the
plans investment in or holding of our common stock or whether we breached other legal or fiduciary
obligations to our shareholders. With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers and
401(k) plan fiduciaries are entitled to indemnification from us for claims against them. We intend
to defend vigorously any proceedings that may result from these investigations.
As we previously disclosed, for some time we have had discussions with lenders regarding their
objections to rescissions that in the aggregate are material. On December 17, 2009, Countrywide
filed a complaint for declaratory relief in the Superior Court of the State of California in San
Francisco against MGIC. This complaint alleges that MGIC has denied, and continues to deny, valid
mortgage insurance claims submitted by Countrywide and says it seeks declaratory relief regarding
the proper interpretation of the flow insurance policies at issue. On January 19, 2010, we removed
this case to the United States District Court for the Northern District of California. On March 30,
2010, the Court ordered the case remanded to the Superior Court of the State of California in San
Francisco. We have asked the Court to stay the remand and plan to appeal this decision. On February
24, 2010, we commenced an arbitration action against Countrywide seeking a determination that MGIC
was entitled to deny and/or rescind coverage on the loans involved in the arbitration demand, which
numbered more than 1,400 loans as of the filing of the demand. On March 16, 2010, Countrywide filed
a response to our arbitration action objecting to the arbitrators jurisdiction in view of the case
initiated by Countrywide in the Superior Court of the State of California and asserting various
defenses to the relief sought by MGIC in the arbitration. The response also seeks damages of at
least $150 million, exclusive of interest and costs, as a result of purported breaches of flow
insurance policies issued by MGIC and additional damages, including
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exemplary damages, on account of MGICs purported breach of an implied covenant of good faith and
fair dealing. We intend to defend MGIC against Countrywides complaint and arbitration response,
and to pursue MGICs claims in the arbitration, vigorously. However, we are unable to predict the
outcome of these proceedings or their effect on us.
In addition to the rescissions at issue with Countrywide, we have a substantial pipeline of
claims investigations (including investigations involving loans related to Countrywide) that we
expect will eventually result in future rescissions. For additional information about rescissions,
see the risk factor titled We may not continue to realize benefits from rescissions at the levels
we have recently experienced and we may not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our
rescissions were proper.
Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a
restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
The majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The
business practices of the GSEs affect the entire relationship between them and mortgage insurers
and include:
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the level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of the
GSEs charters (which may be changed by federal legislation) when private mortgage
insurance is used as the required credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages, |
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the amount of loan level delivery fees (which result in higher costs to borrowers) that
the GSEs assess on loans that require mortgage insurance, |
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whether the GSEs influence the mortgage lenders selection of the mortgage insurer
providing coverage and, if so, any transactions that are related to that selection, |
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the underwriting standards that determine what loans are eligible for purchase by the
GSEs, which can affect the quality of the risk insured by the mortgage insurer and the
availability of mortgage loans, |
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the terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the
cancellation thresholds established by law, and |
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the programs established by the GSEs intended to avoid or mitigate loss on insured
mortgages and the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must implement such programs. |
In September 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) was appointed as the
conservator of the GSEs. As their conservator, FHFA controls and directs the operations of the
GSEs. The appointment of FHFA as conservator, the increasing role that the federal government has
assumed in the residential mortgage market, our industrys inability, due to capital constraints,
to write sufficient business to meet the needs of the GSEs or other factors may increase the
likelihood that the business practices of the GSEs change in ways that may have a material adverse
effect on us. In addition, these factors may increase the likelihood that the charters of the GSEs
are changed by new federal legislation. Such changes may allow the GSEs to reduce or eliminate the
level of private mortgage insurance coverage that they use as credit enhancement, which could have
a material adverse effect on our revenue, results of operations or financial condition. The Obama
administration and certain members of Congress have publicly stated that that they are considering
proposing significant changes to the GSEs. As a result, it is uncertain what role that the GSEs
will play in the domestic residential housing finance system in the future or the impact of any
such changes on our business.
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For a number of years, the GSEs have had programs under which on certain loans lenders could
choose a mortgage insurance coverage percentage that was only the minimum required by their
charters, with the GSEs paying a lower price for these loans (charter coverage). The GSEs have
also had programs under which on certain loans they would accept a level of mortgage insurance
above the requirements of their charters but below their standard coverage without any decrease in
the purchase price they would pay for these loans (reduced coverage). Effective January 1, 2010,
Fannie Mae broadly expanded the types of loans eligible for charter coverage and in the second
quarter of 2010 Fannie Mae eliminated its reduced coverage program. In recent years, a majority of
our volume was on loans with GSE standard coverage, a substantial portion of our volume has been on
loans with reduced coverage, and a minor portion of our volume has been on loans with charter
coverage. We charge higher premium rates for higher coverages. During the first quarter of 2010,
the portion of our volume insured at charter coverage has been approximately the same as in the
recent years and, due in part to the elimination of reduced coverage by Fannie Mae, the portion of
our volume insured at standard coverage has increased. Also, the pricing changes we plan to
implement on May 1, 2010 (see the risk factor titled The premiums we charge may not be adequate to
compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a result any inadequacy could materially affect
our financial condition and results of operations.) would eliminate a lenders incentive to use
Fannie Mae charter coverage in place of standard coverage. However, to the extent lenders
selling loans to Fannie Mae in the future did choose charter coverage for loans that we insure, our
revenues would be reduced and we could experience other adverse effects.
Both of the GSEs have policies which provide guidelines on terms under which they can conduct
business with mortgage insurers, such as MGIC, with financial strength ratings below Aa3/AA-.
(MGICs financial strength rating from Moodys is Ba3, with a negative outlook; from Standard &
Poors is B+, with a negative outlook; and from Fitch Ratings Service is BB-, with a negative
outlook.) For information about how these policies could affect us, see the risk factor titled
MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs mortgage insurer eligibility requirements.
MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs mortgage insurer eligibility requirements.
The majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, each of
which has mortgage insurer eligibility requirements. We believe that the GSEs are analyzing their
mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and may make changes to them in the near future.
Currently, MGIC is operating with each GSE as an eligible insurer under a remediation plan. We
believe that the GSEs view remediation plans as a continuing process of interaction between a
mortgage insurer and MGIC will continue to operate under a remediation plan for the foreseeable
future. There can be no assurance that MGIC will be able to continue to operate as an eligible
mortgage insurer under a remediation plan. If MGIC ceases being eligible to insure loans purchased
by one or both of the GSEs, it would significantly reduce the volume of our new business writings.
The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select
alternatives to private mortgage insurance.
These alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:
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lenders using government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the Federal
Housing Administration, or FHA, and the Veterans Administration, |
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lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring, |
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investors using credit enhancements other than private mortgage insurance, using other
credit enhancements in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance
coverage, or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement, and |
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lenders originating mortgages using piggyback structures to avoid private mortgage
insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage
with a 10%, 15% or 20% loan-to-value ratio (referred to as 80-10-10, 80-15-5 or 80-20
loans, respectively) rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% loan-to-value
ratio that has private mortgage insurance. |
The FHA substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008. We believe that the FHAs
market share increased, in part, because mortgage insurers have tightened their underwriting
guidelines (which has led to increased utilization of the FHAs programs) and because of increases
in the amount of loan level delivery fees that the GSEs assess on loans (which result in higher
costs to borrowers). Recent federal legislation and programs have also provided the FHA with
greater flexibility in establishing new products and have increased the FHAs competitive position
against private mortgage insurers.
Competition or changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues or
increase our losses.
In recent years, the level of competition within the private mortgage insurance industry has
been intense as many large mortgage lenders reduced the number of private mortgage insurers with
whom they do business. At the same time, consolidation among mortgage lenders has increased the
share of the mortgage lending market held by large lenders. Our private mortgage insurance
competitors include:
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PMI Mortgage Insurance Company, |
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Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation, |
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United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company, |
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Radian Guaranty Inc., |
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Republic Mortgage Insurance Company, whose parent, based on information filed with the
SEC through April 12, 2010, is our largest shareholder, and |
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CMG Mortgage Insurance Company. |
Until recently, the mortgage insurance industry had not had new entrants in many years.
Recently, Essent Guaranty, Inc. announced that it would begin writing new mortgage insurance.
Essent has publicly reported that one of its investors is JPMorgan Chase which is one of our
customers. The perceived increase in credit quality of loans that are being insured today combined
with the deterioration of the financial strength ratings of the existing mortgage insurance
companies could encourage new entrants. We understand that one potential new entrant has advertised
for employees. The FHA, which in recent years was not viewed by us as a significant competitor,
substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008.
Our relationships with our customers could be adversely affected by a variety of factors,
including tightening of and adherence to our underwriting guidelines, which have resulted in our
declining to insure some of the loans originated by our customers, rescission of loans that affect
the customer and our decision to discontinue ceding new business under excess of loss captive
reinsurance programs. In the
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fourth quarter of 2009, Countrywide commenced litigation against us as a result of its
dissatisfaction with our rescissions practices shortly after Countrywide ceased doing business with
us. See the risk factor titled We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory
proceedings for more information about this litigation and the arbitration case we filed against
Countrywide regarding rescissions. Countrywide and its Bank of America affiliates accounted for
12.0% of our flow new insurance written in 2008 and 8.3% of our new insurance written in the first
three quarters of 2009. In addition, we continue to have discussions with other lenders who are
significant customers regarding their objections to rescissions. The FHA, which in recent years was
not viewed by us as a significant competitor, substantially increased its market share beginning in
2008.
We believe some lenders assess a mortgage insurers financial strength rating as an important
element of the process through which they select mortgage insurers. MGICs financial strength
rating from Moodys is Ba3, with a negative outlook; from Standard & Poors is B+, with a negative
outlook; and from Fitch Ratings Service is BB-, with a negative outlook. Absent additional
capital, it is possible that MGICs financial strength ratings could decline from these levels. As
a result of MGICs less than investment grade financial strength rating, MGIC may be competitively
disadvantaged with these lenders.
Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in the value of borrowers homes from their value at
the time their loans closed may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing.
Losses result from events that reduce a borrowers ability to continue to make mortgage
payments, such as unemployment, and whether the home of a borrower who defaults on his mortgage can
be sold for an amount that will cover unpaid principal and interest and the expenses of the sale.
In general, favorable economic conditions reduce the likelihood that borrowers will lack sufficient
income to pay their mortgages and also favorably affect the value of homes, thereby reducing and in
some cases even eliminating a loss from a mortgage default. A deterioration in economic conditions,
including an increase in unemployment, generally increases the likelihood that borrowers will not
have sufficient income to pay their mortgages and can also adversely affect housing values, which
in turn can influence the willingness of borrowers with sufficient resources to make mortgage
payments to do so when the mortgage balance exceeds the value of the home. Housing values may
decline even absent a deterioration in economic conditions due to declines in demand for homes,
which in turn may result from changes in buyers perceptions of the potential for future
appreciation, restrictions on and the cost of mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting
standards, liquidity issues affecting lenders or higher interest rates generally or other factors.
The residential mortgage market in the United States has for some time experienced a variety of
poor or worsening economic conditions, including a material nationwide decline in housing values,
with declines continuing in 2010 in a number of geographic areas. Home values may continue to
deteriorate and unemployment levels may continue to increase or remain elevated.
The mix of business we write also affects the likelihood of losses occurring.
Even when housing values are stable or rising, certain types of mortgages have higher
probabilities of claims. These types include loans with loan-to-value ratios over 95% (or in
certain markets that have experienced declining housing values, over 90%), FICO credit scores below
620, limited underwriting, including limited borrower documentation, or total debt-to-income ratios
of 38% or higher, as well as loans having combinations of higher risk factors. As of March 31,
2010, approximately 60% of our primary risk in force consisted of loans with loan-to-value ratios
equal to or greater than 95%, 9.10% had FICO credit scores below 620, and 12.2% had limited
underwriting, including limited borrower documentation. A material portion of these loans were
written in 2005 2007 or the first quarter of 2008. (In accordance with industry practice, loans
approved by GSEs and other automated underwriting systems under doc waiver programs that do not
require verification of borrower income are classified
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by us as full documentation. For additional information about such loans, see footnote (1) to the
Additional Information at the end of this press release.)
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007 we made a series of changes to our underwriting
guidelines in an effort to improve the risk profile of our new business. Requirements imposed by
new guidelines, however, only affect business written under commitments to insure loans that are
issued after those guidelines become effective. Business for which commitments are issued after new
guidelines are announced and before they become effective is insured by us in accordance with the
guidelines in effect at time of the commitment even if that business would not meet the new
guidelines. For commitments we issue for loans that close and are insured by us, a period longer
than a calendar quarter can elapse between the time we issue a commitment to insure a loan and the
time we report the loan in our risk in force, although this period is generally shorter.
From time to time, in response to market conditions, we increase or decrease the types of
loans that we insure. In addition, we make exceptions to our underwriting guidelines on a
loan-by-loan basis and for certain customer programs. Together these exceptions accounted for less
than 5% of the loans we insured in recent quarters. The changes to our underwriting guidelines
since the fourth quarter of 2007 include the creation of two tiers of restricted markets. Our
underwriting criteria for restricted markets do not allow insurance to be written on certain loans
that could be insured if the property were located in an unrestricted market. Beginning in
September 2009, we removed several markets from our restricted markets list and moved several other
markets from our Tier Two restricted market list (for which our underwriting guidelines are most
limiting) to our Tier One restricted market list. In addition, we have made other changes that have
relaxed our underwriting guidelines and expect to continue to make changes in appropriate
circumstances that will do so in the future.
As of March 31, 2010, approximately 3.5% of our primary risk in force written through the flow
channel, and 41.0% of our primary risk in force written through the bulk channel, consisted of
adjustable rate mortgages in which the initial interest rate may be adjusted during the five years
after the mortgage closing (ARMs). We classify as fixed rate loans adjustable rate mortgages in
which the initial interest rate is fixed during the five years after the mortgage closing. We
believe that when the reset interest rate significantly exceeds the interest rate at loan
origination, claims on ARMs would be substantially higher than for fixed rate loans. Moreover, even
if interest rates remain unchanged, claims on ARMs with a teaser rate (an initial interest rate
that does not fully reflect the index which determines subsequent rates) may also be substantially
higher because of the increase in the mortgage payment that will occur when the fully indexed rate
becomes effective. In addition, we have insured interest-only loans, which may also be ARMs, and
loans with negative amortization features, such as pay option ARMs. We believe claim rates on these
loans will be substantially higher than on loans without scheduled payment increases that are made
to borrowers of comparable credit quality.
Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our underwriting and
pricing models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment
income will be adequate to compensate for actual losses even under our current underwriting
guidelines. We do, however, believe that given the various changes in our underwriting guidelines
that were effective beginning in the first quarter of 2008, our insurance written beginning in the
second quarter of 2008 will generate underwriting profits.
Because we establish loss reserves only upon a loan default rather than based on estimates of our
ultimate losses, losses may have a disproportionate adverse effect on our earnings in certain
periods.
In accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, commonly referred to as GAAP, we
establish loss reserves only for loans in default. Reserves are established for reported insurance
losses and
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loss adjustment expenses based on when notices of default on insured mortgage loans are received.
Reserves are also established for estimated losses incurred on notices of default that have not yet
been reported to us by the servicers (this is often referred to as IBNR). We establish reserves
using estimated claims rates and claims amounts in estimating the ultimate loss. Because our
reserving method does not take account of the impact of future losses that could occur from loans
that are not delinquent, our obligation for ultimate losses that we expect to occur under our
policies in force at any period end is not reflected in our financial statements, except in the
case where a premium deficiency exists. As a result, future losses may have a material impact on
future results as losses emerge.
Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions that are
currently very volatile, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves.
We establish reserves using estimated claim rates and claim amounts in estimating the ultimate
loss on delinquent loans. The estimated claim rates and claim amounts represent our best estimates
of what we will actually pay on the loans in default as of the reserve date and incorporates
anticipated mitigation from rescissions.
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires judgment by
management. Current conditions in the housing and mortgage industries make the assumptions that we
use to establish loss reserves more volatile than they would otherwise be. The actual amount of the
claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could
be adversely affected by several factors, including a deterioration of regional or national
economic conditions, including unemployment, leading to a reduction in borrowers income and thus
their ability to make mortgage payments, a drop in housing values that could materially reduce our
ability to mitigate potential loss through property acquisition and resale or expose us to greater
loss on resale of properties obtained through the claim settlement process and mitigation from
rescissions being materially less than assumed. Changes to our estimates could result in material
impact to our results of operations, even in a stable economic environment, and there can be no
assurance that actual claims paid by us will not be substantially different than our loss reserves.
The premiums we charge may not be adequate to compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a
result any inadequacy could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.
We set premiums at the time a policy is issued based on our expectations regarding likely
performance over the long-term. Our premiums are subject to approval by state regulatory agencies,
which can delay or limit our ability to increase our premiums. Generally, we cannot cancel the
mortgage insurance coverage or adjust renewal premiums during the life of a mortgage insurance
policy. As a result, higher than anticipated claims generally cannot be offset by premium increases
on policies in force or mitigated by our non-renewal or cancellation of insurance coverage. The
premiums we charge, and the associated investment income, may not be adequate to compensate us for
the risks and costs associated with the insurance coverage provided to customers. An increase in
the number or size of claims, compared to what we anticipate, could adversely affect our results of
operations or financial condition.
Subject to regulatory approval, effective May 1, 2010, we will price our new insurance written
after considering, among other things, the borrowers credit score. We made these rate changes to
be more competitive with insurance programs offered by the FHA. Had these rate changes been in
place with respect to new insurance written in the second half of 2009 and the first quarter of
2010, they would have resulted in lower premiums being charged for a substantial majority of our
new insurance written. However, during the first quarter of 2010 (continuing a trend that began in
the fourth quarter of 2009), the
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average coverage percentage of our new insurance written increased. We believe the increased
coverage was due in part to the elimination of Fannie Maes reduced coverage program. See the risk
factor titled Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes
their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
Because we charge higher premiums for higher coverages, had our reduced premium rates been in
effect during the first quarter, the effect of lower premium rates would have been largely offset
by the increase in premiums due to higher coverages. We cannot predict whether our new business
written in the future will continue to have higher coverages. For more information about our rate
changes, see our Form 8-K that was filed with the
SEC on February 23, 2010.
In January 2008, we announced that we had decided to stop writing the portion of our bulk
business that insures loans which are included in Wall Street securitizations because the
performance of loans included in such securitizations deteriorated materially in the fourth quarter
of 2007 and this deterioration was materially worse than we experienced for loans insured through
the flow channel or loans insured through the remainder of our bulk channel. As of December 31,
2007 we established a premium deficiency reserve of approximately $1.2 billion. As of March 31,
2010, the premium deficiency reserve was $180 million. At each date, the premium deficiency reserve
is the present value of expected future losses and expenses that exceeded the present value of
expected future premium and already established loss reserves on these bulk transactions.
The mortgage insurance industry is experiencing material losses, especially on the 2006 and
2007 books. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on general economic conditions,
including unemployment, and the direction of home prices, which in turn will be influenced by
general economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or
general economic conditions with confidence, there is significant uncertainty surrounding what our
ultimate losses will be on our 2006 and 2007 books. Our current expectation, however, is that these
books will continue to generate material incurred and paid losses for a number of years. There can
be no assurance that additional premium deficiency reserves on Wall Street Bulk or on other
portions of our insurance portfolio will not be required.
We may not be able to repay the amounts that we owe under our Senior Notes due in September 2011.
As of April 16, 2010, we had a total of approximately $85 million in short-term investments
available at our holding company. These investments are virtually all of our holding companys
liquid assets. As of April 16, 2010, our holding company had approximately $78.4 million of Senior
Notes due in September 2011 (since the beginning of 2009, our holding company purchased $121.6
million principal amount of these Notes) and $300 million of Senior Notes due in November 2015
outstanding. On an annual basis as of March 31, 2010, our holding companys current use of funds
for interest payments on its Senior Notes approximates $21 million.
While under the Fannie Mae Agreement and the Freddie Mac Notification MGIC may not pay
dividends to our holding company without the GSEs consent, the GSEs have consented to dividends of
not more than $100 million in the aggregate to purchase existing debt obligations of our holding
company or to pay such obligations at maturity. Any dividends from MGIC to our holding company
would require the approval of the OCI, and may require other approvals.
See Notes 6 and 7 to our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of our Annual Report on
Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009 for more information regarding our holding companys
assets and liabilities as of that date.
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Loan modification and other similar programs may not provide material benefits to us and our losses
on loans that re-default can be higher than what we would have paid had the loan not been modified.
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, the federal government, including through the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the GSEs, and several lenders have adopted programs to
modify loans to make them more affordable to borrowers with the goal of reducing the number of
foreclosures. For the quarter ending March 31, 2010, we were notified of modifications involving
loans with risk in force of approximately $734 million.
One such program is the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which was announced by
the US Treasury in early 2009. Some of HAMPs eligibility criteria require current information
about borrowers, such as his or her current income and non-mortgage debt payments. Because the GSEs
and servicers do not share such information with us, we cannot determine with certainty the number
of loans in our delinquent inventory that are eligible to participate in HAMP. We believe that it
could take several months from the time a borrower has made all of the payments during HAMPs three
month trial modification period for the loan to be reported to us as a cured delinquency. We are
aware of approximately 43,100 loans in our primary delinquent inventory at March 31, 2010 for which
the HAMP trial period has begun and approximately 11,600 delinquent primary loans have cured their
delinquency after entering HAMP. We rely on information provided to us by the GSEs and servicers.
We do not receive all of the information from such sources that is required to determine with
certainty the number of loans that are participating in, or have successfully completed, HAMP.
Under HAMP, a net present value test (the NPV Test) is used to determine if loan
modifications will be offered. For loans owned or guaranteed by the GSEs, servicers may, depending
on the results of the NPV Test and other factors, be required to offer loan modifications, as
defined by HAMP, to borrowers. As of December 1, 2009, the GSEs changed how the NPV Test is used.
These changes made it more difficult for some loans to be modified under HAMP. While we lack
sufficient data to determine the impact of these changes, we believe that they may materially
decrease the number of our loans that will participate in HAMP. In January 2010 the United States
Treasury department has further modified the HAMP eligibility requirements. Effective June 1, 2010
a servicer may evaluate and initiate a HAMP trial modification for a borrower only after the
servicer receives certain documents that allow the servicer to verify the borrowers income and the
cause of the borrowers financial hardship. Previously, these documents were not required to be
submitted until after the successful completion of HAMPs trial modification period. We believe
that this will decrease the number of new HAMP trial modifications.
The effect on us of loan modifications depends on how many modified loans subsequently
re-default, which in turn can be affected by changes in housing values. Re-defaults can result in
losses for us that could be greater than we would have paid had the loan not been modified. At this
point, we cannot predict with a high degree of confidence what the ultimate re-default rate will
be, and therefore we cannot ascertain with confidence whether these programs will provide material
benefits to us. In addition, because we do not have information in our database for all of the
parameters used to determine which loans are eligible for modification programs, our estimates of
the number of loans qualifying for modification programs are inherently uncertain. If legislation
is enacted to permit a mortgage balance to be reduced in bankruptcy, we would still be responsible
to pay the original balance if the borrower re-defaulted on that mortgage after its balance had
been reduced. Various government entities and private parties have enacted foreclosure (or
equivalent) moratoriums. Such a moratorium does not affect the accrual of interest and other
expenses on a loan. Unless a loan is modified during a moratorium to cure the default, at the
expiration of the moratorium additional interest and expenses would be due which could result in
our losses on loans subject to the moratorium being higher than if there had been no moratorium.
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Eligibility under loan modification programs can also adversely affect us by creating an
incentive for borrowers who are able to make their mortgage payments to become delinquent in an
attempt to obtain the benefits of a modification. New notices of delinquency are a factor that
increases our incurred losses.
If interest rates decline, house prices appreciate or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements
change, the length of time that our policies remain in force could decline and result in declines
in our revenue.
In each year, most of our premiums are from insurance that has been written in prior years. As
a result, the length of time insurance remains in force, which is also generally referred to as
persistency, is a significant determinant of our revenues. The factors affecting the length of time
our insurance remains in force include:
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the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on
the insurance in force, which affects the vulnerability of the insurance in force to
refinancings, and |
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mortgage insurance cancellation policies of mortgage investors along with the current
value of the homes underlying the mortgages in the insurance in force. |
During the 1990s, our year-end persistency ranged from a high of 87.4% at December 31, 1990 to
a low of 68.1% at December 31, 1998. Since 2000, our year-end persistency ranged from a high of
84.7% at December 31, 2009 to a low of 47.1% at December 31, 2003. Future premiums on our insurance
in force represent a material portion of our claims paying resources.
Your ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise or if the holders
of our outstanding convertible debentures convert their debentures into shares of our common stock.
As noted above in the risk factor titled Even though our plan to write new insurance in MIC
has received approval from the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin
(OCI) and the GSEs, because MGIC is not expected to meet statutory risk-to-capital requirements
to write new business in various states, we cannot guarantee that the implementation of our plan
will allow us to continue to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis, we may be required to
raised additional equity capital. Any such future sales would dilute your ownership interest in
our company. In addition, the market price of our common stock could decline as a result of sales
of a large number of shares or similar securities in the market or the perception that such sales
could occur.
We have approximately $390 million principal amount of 9% Convertible Junior Subordinated
Debentures outstanding. The principal amount of the debentures is currently convertible, at the
holders option, at an initial conversion rate, which is subject to adjustment, of 74.0741 common
shares per $1,000 principal amount of debentures. This represents an initial conversion price of
approximately $13.50 per share. We have elected to defer the payment of a total of approximately
$55 million of interest on these debentures. We may also defer additional interest in the future.
If a holder elects to convert its debentures, the interest that has been deferred on the debentures
being converted is also converted into shares of our common stock. The conversion rate for such
deferred interest is based on the average price that our shares traded at during a 5-day period
immediately prior to the election to convert the associated debentures.
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If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that
we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues.
The factors that affect the volume of low-down-payment mortgage originations include:
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restrictions on mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards and
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the level of home mortgage interest rates, |
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the health of the domestic economy as well as conditions in regional and local
economies, |
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housing affordability, |
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population trends, including the rate of household formation, |
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the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect
whether refinance loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance,
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government housing policy encouraging loans to first-time homebuyers. |
A decline in the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations could decrease demand
for mortgage insurance, decrease our new insurance written and reduce our revenues.
The Internal Revenue Service has proposed significant adjustments to our taxable income for 2000
through 2007.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has completed separate examinations of our federal income
tax returns for the years 2000 through 2004 and 2005 through 2007 and has issued assessments for
unpaid taxes, interest and penalties. The primary adjustment in both examinations relates to our
treatment of the flow through income and loss from an investment in a portfolio of residual
interests of Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICS). This portfolio has been managed
and maintained during years prior to, during and subsequent to the examination period. The IRS has
indicated that it does not believe that, for various reasons, we have established sufficient tax
basis in the REMIC residual interests to deduct the losses from taxable income. We disagree with
this conclusion and believe that the flow through income and loss from these investments was
properly reported on our federal income tax returns in accordance with applicable tax laws and
regulations in effect during the periods involved and have appealed these adjustments. The appeals
process is ongoing and may last for an extended period of time, but at this time it is difficult
to predict with any certainty when it may conclude. The assessment for unpaid taxes related to the
REMIC issue for these years is $197.1 million in taxes and accuracy-related penalties, plus
applicable interest. Other adjustments during taxable years 2000 through 2007 are not material, and
have been agreed to with the IRS. On July 2, 2007, we made a payment on account of $65.2 million
with the United States Department of the Treasury to eliminate the further accrual of interest. We
believe, after discussions with outside counsel about the issues raised in the examinations and the
procedures for resolution of the disputed adjustments, that an adequate provision for income taxes
has been made for potential liabilities that may result from these assessments. If the outcome of
this matter differs materially from our estimates, it could have a material impact on our effective
tax rate, results of operations and cash flows.
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We could be adversely affected if personal information on consumers that we maintain is improperly
disclosed.
As part of our business, we maintain large amounts of personal information on consumers. While
we believe we have appropriate information security policies and systems to prevent unauthorized
disclosure, there can be no assurance that unauthorized disclosure, either through the actions of third parties
or employees, will not occur. Unauthorized disclosure could adversely affect our reputation and
expose us to material claims for damages.
The implementation of the Basel II capital accord, or other changes to our customers capital
requirements, may discourage the use of mortgage insurance.
In 1988, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision developed the Basel Capital Accord (Basel
I), which set out international benchmarks for assessing banks capital adequacy requirements. In
June 2005, the Basel Committee issued an update to Basel I (as revised in November 2005, Basel II).
Basel II was implemented by many banks in the United States and many other countries in 2009 and
may be implemented by the remaining banks in the United States and many other countries in 2010.
Basel II affects the capital treatment provided to mortgage insurance by domestic and international
banks in both their origination and securitization activities.
The Basel II provisions related to residential mortgages and mortgage insurance, or other
changes to our customers capital requirements, may provide incentives to certain of our bank
customers not to insure mortgages having a lower risk of claim and to insure mortgages having a
higher risk of claim. The Basel II provisions may also alter the competitive positions and
financial performance of mortgage insurers in other ways.
We may not be able to recover the capital we invested in our Australian operations for many years
and may not recover all of such capital.
We have committed significant resources to begin international operations, primarily in
Australia, where we started to write business in June 2007. In view of our need to dedicate capital
to our domestic mortgage insurance operations, we have reduced our Australian headcount and are no
longer writing new business in Australia. In addition to the general economic and insurance
business-related factors discussed above, we are subject to a number of other risks from having
deployed capital in Australia, including foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and
interest-rate volatility particular to Australia.
We are susceptible to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans that we insure.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. A recent
trend in the mortgage lending and mortgage loan servicing industry has been towards consolidation
of loan servicers. This reduction in the number of servicers could lead to disruptions in the
servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. In addition, current housing market
trends have led to significant increases in the number of delinquent mortgage loans requiring
servicing. These increases have strained the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to
undertake mitigation efforts that could help limit our losses. Future housing market conditions
could lead to additional such increases. Managing a substantially higher volume of non-performing
loans could lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage.
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