MGIC Investment Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2015 Results
Net income for the quarter ended
Notable items for the quarter include:
Q2 2015 |
Q2 2014 |
% Change |
||
New Insurance Written (billions) |
$11.8 |
$8.3 |
+42.2% |
|
Insurance In Force (billions) |
$168.8 |
$159.3 |
+5.9% |
|
Primary Delinquent Inventory (# loans) |
66,357 |
85,416 |
-22.3% |
|
Annual Persistency |
80.4% |
82.4% |
||
Consolidated Risk-to-Capital Ratio |
14.8:1(1) |
17.3:1 |
||
GAAP Loss Ratio |
42.3% |
68.0% |
||
GAAP Underwriting Expense Ratio (2) |
15.0% |
14.4% |
1) preliminary as of June 30, 2015, 2) insurance operations |
Total revenues for the second quarter were
New insurance written in the second quarter was
As of
At
Losses incurred in the second quarter were
Outlook
For the full year of 2015 MGIC expects that new insurance written will exceed the level written in 2014, however, the year over year percentage increase, as measured on a quarterly basis, is expected to be lower in the second half of 2015 when compared to the first half of 2015. For the full year annual persistency is forecasted to be 80-85%. The number of loans in the delinquent inventory is expected to continue to decline modestly and the claim rate applied to new delinquent notices is expected to gradually decrease throughout the balance of the year. The underwriting expense ratio is expected to stay relatively stable for the second half of 2015. MGIC expects that it will be in compliance with PMIERS when they become effective at
Conference Call and Webcast Details
About MGIC
MGIC (www.mgic.com), the principal subsidiary of
This press release, which includes certain additional statistical and other information, including non-GAAP financial information and a supplement that contains various portfolio statistics are both available on the Company's website at http://mtg.mgic.com/ under Investor Information, Press Releases or Presentations/Webcasts.
From time to time
Safe Harbor Statement
Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors:
Our actual results could be affected by the risk factors below. These risk factors should be reviewed in connection with this press release and our periodic reports to the
In addition, the current period financial results included in this press release may be affected by additional information that arises prior to the filing of our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES |
|||||||||
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (UNAUDITED) |
|||||||||
Three Months Ended June 30, |
Six Months Ended June 30, |
||||||||
(In thousands, except per share data) |
2015 |
2014 |
2015 |
2014 |
|||||
Net premiums written |
$ 226,775 |
$ 213,385 |
$ 461,231 |
$ 431,405 |
|||||
Net premiums earned |
$ 213,508 |
$ 207,486 |
$ 430,796 |
$ 421,747 |
|||||
Investment income |
25,756 |
21,180 |
49,876 |
41,336 |
|||||
Net realized investment gains: |
|||||||||
Total other-than-temporary impairment losses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||||
Portion of loss recognized in other comprehensive |
|||||||||
income (loss), before taxes |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||||
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||||
Other realized investment gains |
166 |
522 |
26,493 |
291 |
|||||
Net realized investment gains |
166 |
522 |
26,493 |
291 |
|||||
Other revenue |
3,699 |
2,048 |
6,179 |
2,944 |
|||||
Total revenues |
243,129 |
231,236 |
513,344 |
466,318 |
|||||
Losses and expenses: |
|||||||||
Losses incurred |
90,238 |
141,141 |
172,023 |
263,749 |
|||||
Change in premium deficiency reserve |
(17,333) |
(7,833) |
(23,751) |
(13,006) |
|||||
Underwriting and other expenses, net |
37,875 |
33,914 |
78,900 |
73,314 |
|||||
Interest expense |
17,373 |
17,374 |
34,735 |
34,913 |
|||||
Total losses and expenses |
128,153 |
184,596 |
261,907 |
358,970 |
|||||
Income before tax |
114,976 |
46,640 |
251,437 |
107,348 |
|||||
Provision for income taxes |
1,322 |
1,118 |
4,707 |
1,844 |
|||||
Net income |
$ 113,654 |
$ 45,522 |
$ 246,730 |
$ 105,504 |
|||||
Diluted earnings per share |
$ 0.28 |
$ 0.12 |
$ 0.60 |
$ 0.27 |
|||||
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES |
|||||||||
EARNINGS PER SHARE (UNAUDITED) |
|||||||||
Three Months Ended June 30, |
Six Months Ended June 30, |
||||||||
(In thousands, except per share data) |
2015 |
2014 |
2015 |
2014 |
|||||
Net income |
$ 113,654 |
$ 45,522 |
$ 246,730 |
$ 105,504 |
|||||
Interest expense: |
|||||||||
Convertible Senior Notes due 2020 |
3,049 |
3,049 |
6,098 |
6,098 |
|||||
Convertible Senior Notes due 2017 |
4,692 |
- |
9,385 |
- |
|||||
Diluted net income |
$ 121,395 |
$ 48,571 |
$ 262,213 |
$ 111,602 |
|||||
Weighted average common shares outstanding - basic |
339,705 |
338,626 |
339,406 |
338,419 |
|||||
Effect of dilutive securities: |
|||||||||
Unvested restricted stock |
1,831 |
2,913 |
2,203 |
3,013 |
|||||
Convertible Senior Notes due 2020 |
71,942 |
71,942 |
71,942 |
71,942 |
|||||
Convertible Senior Notes due 2017 |
25,670 |
- |
25,670 |
- |
|||||
Weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted |
439,148 |
413,481 |
439,221 |
413,374 |
|||||
Diluted earnings per share |
$ 0.28 |
$ 0.12 |
$ 0.60 |
$ 0.27 |
|||||
Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures: |
|||||||||
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) contribution from realized gains: |
|||||||||
Net realized investment gains: |
$ 166 |
$ 522 |
$ 26,493 |
$ 291 |
|||||
Income taxes at 35% (1) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||||
After tax realized gains, net |
166 |
522 |
26,493 |
291 |
|||||
Weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted |
439,148 |
413,481 |
439,221 |
413,374 |
|||||
Diluted EPS contribution from net realized gains |
$ - |
$ - |
$ 0.06 |
$ - |
|||||
Note: Management believes the diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains or losses provides useful information to investors because it shows the after-tax effect of these items, which can be discretionary. |
|||||||||
(1) |
Due to the establishment of a valuation allowance, income taxes provided are not currently affected by realized gains or losses. |
||||||||
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES |
|||||||||
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (UNAUDITED) |
|||||||||
June 30, |
December 31, |
June 30, |
|||||||
(In thousands, except per share data) |
2015 |
2014 |
2014 |
||||||
ASSETS |
|||||||||
Investments (1) |
$ 4,552,110 |
$ 4,612,669 |
$ 4,614,479 |
||||||
Cash and cash equivalents |
215,770 |
215,094 |
359,803 |
||||||
Prepaid reinsurance premiums |
58,085 |
47,623 |
40,261 |
||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves (2) |
53,456 |
57,841 |
57,763 |
||||||
Home office and equipment, net |
28,925 |
28,693 |
28,336 |
||||||
Deferred insurance policy acquisition costs |
14,160 |
12,240 |
10,676 |
||||||
Other assets |
324,276 |
292,274 |
267,826 |
||||||
Total assets |
$ 5,246,782 |
$ 5,266,434 |
$ 5,379,144 |
||||||
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY |
|||||||||
Liabilities: |
|||||||||
Loss reserves (2) |
$ 2,110,761 |
$ 2,396,807 |
$ 2,675,594 |
||||||
Premium deficiency reserve |
- |
23,751 |
35,455 |
||||||
Unearned premiums |
244,288 |
203,414 |
168,200 |
||||||
Senior notes |
61,941 |
61,918 |
61,894 |
||||||
Convertible senior notes |
845,000 |
845,000 |
845,000 |
||||||
Convertible junior debentures |
389,522 |
389,522 |
389,522 |
||||||
Other liabilities |
356,986 |
309,119 |
271,864 |
||||||
Total liabilities |
4,008,498 |
4,229,531 |
4,447,529 |
||||||
Shareholders' equity |
1,238,284 |
1,036,903 |
931,615 |
||||||
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity |
$ 5,246,782 |
$ 5,266,434 |
$ 5,379,144 |
||||||
Book value per share (3) |
$ 3.65 |
$ 3.06 |
$ 2.75 |
||||||
(1) Investments include net unrealized gains (losses) on securities |
(37,249) |
7,152 |
(155) |
||||||
(2) Loss reserves, net of reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves |
2,057,305 |
2,338,966 |
2,617,831 |
||||||
(3) Shares outstanding |
339,639 |
338,560 |
338,560 |
Q1 2014 |
Q2 2014 |
Q3 2014 |
Q4 2014 |
Q1 2015 |
Q2 2015 |
|||||||
New primary insurance written (NIW) (billions) |
$ 5.2 |
$ 8.3 |
$ 10.4 |
$ 9.5 |
$ 9.0 |
$ 11.8 |
||||||
New primary risk written (billions) |
$ 1.3 |
$ 2.1 |
$ 2.7 |
$ 2.4 |
$ 2.2 |
$ 3.0 |
||||||
Product mix as a % of primary flow NIW |
||||||||||||
>95% LTVs |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
||||||
Singles |
13% |
13% |
15% |
17% |
23% |
20% |
||||||
Refinances |
15% |
10% |
12% |
17% |
29% |
20% |
||||||
Primary Insurance In Force (IIF) (billions) (1) |
$ 157.9 |
$ 159.3 |
$ 162.4 |
$ 164.9 |
$ 166.1 |
$ 168.8 |
||||||
Flow |
$ 145.0 |
$ 146.8 |
$ 150.2 |
$ 153.0 |
$ 154.5 |
$ 157.5 |
||||||
Bulk |
$ 12.9 |
$ 12.5 |
$ 12.2 |
$ 11.9 |
$ 11.6 |
$ 11.3 |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
$ 140.8 |
$ 142.9 |
$ 146.5 |
$ 149.6 |
$ 151.2 |
$ 154.5 |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
$ 6.7 |
$ 6.4 |
$ 6.2 |
$ 6.0 |
$ 5.8 |
$ 5.6 |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ 1.9 |
$ 1.8 |
$ 1.8 |
$ 1.7 |
$ 1.7 |
$ 1.6 |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ 8.5 |
$ 8.2 |
$ 7.9 |
$ 7.6 |
$ 7.4 |
$ 7.1 |
||||||
Annual Persistency |
81.1% |
82.4% |
82.8% |
82.8% |
81.6% |
80.4% |
||||||
Primary Risk In Force (RIF) (billions) (1) |
$ 40.9 |
$ 41.4 |
$ 42.3 |
$ 42.9 |
$ 43.2 |
$ 44.0 |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
$ 36.3 |
$ 36.9 |
$ 38.0 |
$ 38.7 |
$ 39.1 |
$ 40.1 |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
$ 1.8 |
$ 1.8 |
$ 1.7 |
$ 1.6 |
$ 1.6 |
$ 1.5 |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ 0.5 |
$ 0.5 |
$ 0.5 |
$ 0.5 |
$ 0.5 |
$ 0.5 |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ 2.3 |
$ 2.2 |
$ 2.1 |
$ 2.1 |
$ 2.0 |
$ 1.9 |
||||||
RIF by FICO |
||||||||||||
FICO 620 & > |
93.5% |
93.7% |
94.1% |
94.4% |
94.6% |
94.9% |
||||||
FICO 575 - 619 |
5.0% |
4.8% |
4.5% |
4.3% |
4.1% |
3.9% |
||||||
FICO < 575 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.4% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
1.2% |
||||||
Average Coverage Ratio (RIF/IIF) (1) |
||||||||||||
Total |
25.9% |
26.0% |
26.0% |
26.0% |
26.0% |
26.0% |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
25.7% |
25.8% |
25.9% |
25.9% |
25.9% |
25.9% |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
27.5% |
27.6% |
27.6% |
27.6% |
27.6% |
27.6% |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
29.0% |
29.0% |
29.0% |
29.0% |
29.0% |
29.0% |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
26.9% |
26.9% |
26.9% |
27.0% |
26.9% |
27.0% |
||||||
Average Loan Size (thousands) (1) |
||||||||||||
Total IIF |
$ 166.33 |
$ 167.61 |
$ 169.05 |
$ 170.24 |
$ 171.05 |
$ 172.37 |
||||||
Flow |
$ 167.75 |
$ 169.17 |
$ 170.74 |
$ 172.07 |
$ 172.88 |
$ 174.23 |
||||||
Bulk |
$ 151.95 |
$ 151.24 |
$ 150.77 |
$ 149.75 |
$ 149.90 |
$ 149.93 |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
$ 168.79 |
$ 170.17 |
$ 171.72 |
$ 172.99 |
$ 173.84 |
$ 175.17 |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
$ 127.14 |
$ 127.10 |
$ 126.81 |
$ 126.42 |
$ 126.14 |
$ 125.93 |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ 118.41 |
$ 118.26 |
$ 117.97 |
$ 117.31 |
$ 116.85 |
$ 116.93 |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ 182.75 |
$ 182.31 |
$ 182.02 |
$ 181.48 |
$ 181.26 |
$ 181.13 |
||||||
Primary IIF - # of loans (1) |
949,384 |
950,731 |
960,849 |
968,748 |
970,931 |
979,202 |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
834,375 |
839,745 |
853,488 |
864,842 |
869,805 |
881,935 |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
52,252 |
50,377 |
48,727 |
47,165 |
45,755 |
44,015 |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
16,087 |
15,690 |
15,264 |
14,853 |
14,577 |
13,978 |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
46,670 |
44,919 |
43,370 |
41,888 |
40,794 |
39,274 |
||||||
Primary IIF - Default Roll Forward - # of Loans |
||||||||||||
Beginning Default Inventory |
103,328 |
91,842 |
85,416 |
83,154 |
79,901 |
72,236 |
||||||
New Notices |
23,346 |
21,178 |
22,927 |
21,393 |
18,896 |
17,451 |
||||||
Cures |
(27,318) |
(21,182) |
(19,582) |
(19,196) |
(21,767) |
(17,897) |
||||||
Paids (including those charged to a deductible or captive) |
(7,064) |
(6,068) |
(5,288) |
(5,074) |
(4,573) |
(4,140) |
||||||
Rescissions and denials |
(450) |
(354) |
(319) |
(183) |
(221) |
(172) |
||||||
Items removed from inventory resulting from rescission settlement (5) |
- |
- |
- |
(193) |
- |
(1,121) |
||||||
Ending Default Inventory (4) |
91,842 |
85,416 |
83,154 |
79,901 |
72,236 |
66,357 |
||||||
Primary claim received inventory included in ending default inventory (4) |
5,990 |
5,398 |
5,194 |
4,746 |
4,448 |
3,440 |
||||||
Composition of Cures (6) |
||||||||||||
Reported delinquent and cured intraquarter |
8,554 |
5,409 |
6,205 |
5,674 |
6,887 |
4,620 |
||||||
Number of payments delinquent prior to cure |
||||||||||||
3 payments or less |
11,543 |
9,375 |
7,989 |
8,420 |
9,516 |
7,721 |
||||||
4-11 payments |
4,920 |
4,496 |
3,651 |
3,463 |
3,688 |
3,789 |
||||||
12 payments or more |
2,301 |
1,902 |
1,737 |
1,639 |
1,676 |
1,767 |
||||||
Total Cures in Quarter |
27,318 |
21,182 |
19,582 |
19,196 |
21,767 |
17,897 |
||||||
Composition of Paids (6) |
||||||||||||
Number of payments delinquent at time of claim payment |
||||||||||||
3 payments or less |
33 |
19 |
25 |
11 |
12 |
16 |
||||||
4-11 payments |
965 |
750 |
550 |
528 |
550 |
435 |
||||||
12 payments or more |
6,066 |
5,299 |
4,713 |
4,535 |
4,011 |
3,689 |
||||||
Total Paids in Quarter |
7,064 |
6,068 |
5,288 |
5,074 |
4,573 |
4,140 |
||||||
Aging of Primary Default Inventory (4) |
||||||||||||
Consecutive months in default |
||||||||||||
3 months or less |
14,313 |
16% |
15,297 |
18% |
16,209 |
19% |
15,319 |
19% |
11,604 |
16% |
12,545 |
19% |
4-11 months |
23,305 |
25% |
19,362 |
23% |
18,890 |
23% |
19,710 |
25% |
18,940 |
26% |
15,487 |
23% |
12 months or more |
54,224 |
59% |
50,757 |
59% |
48,055 |
58% |
44,872 |
56% |
41,692 |
58% |
38,325 |
58% |
Number of payments delinquent |
||||||||||||
3 payments or less |
23,035 |
25% |
22,867 |
27% |
23,769 |
28% |
23,253 |
29% |
19,159 |
27% |
19,274 |
29% |
4-11 payments |
22,766 |
25% |
19,666 |
23% |
18,985 |
23% |
19,427 |
24% |
18,372 |
25% |
15,710 |
24% |
12 payments or more |
46,041 |
50% |
42,883 |
50% |
40,400 |
49% |
37,221 |
47% |
34,705 |
48% |
31,373 |
47% |
Q1 2014 |
Q2 2014 |
Q3 2014 |
Q4 2014 |
Q1 2015 |
Q2 2015 |
|||||||
Primary IIF - # of Delinquent Loans (1) |
91,842 |
85,416 |
83,154 |
79,901 |
72,236 |
66,357 |
||||||
Flow |
68,473 |
63,308 |
61,323 |
59,111 |
53,390 |
49,507 |
||||||
Bulk |
23,369 |
22,108 |
21,831 |
20,790 |
18,846 |
16,850 |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
57,965 |
53,651 |
52,301 |
50,307 |
45,416 |
42,233 |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
14,518 |
13,699 |
13,474 |
13,021 |
11,639 |
10,921 |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
5,814 |
5,555 |
5,477 |
5,228 |
4,654 |
4,274 |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
13,545 |
12,511 |
11,902 |
11,345 |
10,527 |
8,929 |
||||||
Primary IIF Default Rates (1) |
9.67% |
8.98% |
8.65% |
8.25% |
7.44% |
6.78% |
||||||
Flow |
7.92% |
7.30% |
6.97% |
6.65% |
5.98% |
5.48% |
||||||
Bulk |
27.46% |
26.60% |
26.89% |
26.23% |
24.33% |
22.42% |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
6.95% |
6.39% |
6.13% |
5.82% |
5.22% |
4.79% |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
27.78% |
27.19% |
27.65% |
27.61% |
25.44% |
24.81% |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
36.14% |
35.40% |
35.88% |
35.20% |
31.93% |
30.58% |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
29.02% |
27.85% |
27.44% |
27.08% |
25.81% |
22.74% |
||||||
Reserves |
||||||||||||
Primary |
||||||||||||
Direct Loss Reserves (millions) |
$ 2,629 |
$ 2,491 |
$ 2,362 |
$ 2,246 |
$ 2,112 |
$ 1,993 |
||||||
Average Direct Reserve Per Default |
$ 28,630 |
$ 29,160 |
$ 28,404 |
$ 28,107 |
$ 29,233 |
$ 30,033 |
||||||
Pool |
||||||||||||
Direct Loss Reserves (millions) |
$ 87 |
$ 77 |
$ 69 |
$ 65 |
$ 57 |
$ 52 |
||||||
Ending Default Inventory |
5,646 |
5,271 |
4,525 |
3,797 |
3,350 |
3,129 |
||||||
Pool claim received inventory included in ending default inventory |
144 |
173 |
86 |
99 |
88 |
97 |
||||||
Reserves related to Freddie Mac settlement |
$ 115 |
$ 105 |
$ 94 |
$ 84 |
$ 73 |
$ 63 |
||||||
Other Gross Reserves (millions) (3) |
$ 4 |
$ 3 |
$ 3 |
$ 2 |
$ 3 |
$ 3 |
||||||
Net Paid Claims (millions) (1) |
$ 343 |
$ 300 |
$ 263 |
$ 248 |
$ 232 |
$ 222 |
||||||
Flow |
$ 265 |
$ 225 |
$ 196 |
$ 189 |
$ 167 |
$ 150 |
||||||
Bulk |
$ 59 |
$ 52 |
$ 46 |
$ 36 |
$ 50 |
$ 46 |
||||||
Prior rescission settlement (5) |
$ - |
$ - |
$ - |
$ 6 |
$ - |
$ 10 |
||||||
Pool - with aggregate loss limits |
$ 9 |
$ 9 |
$ 6 |
$ 3 |
$ 4 |
$ 5 |
||||||
Pool - without aggregate loss limits |
$ 5 |
$ 4 |
$ 3 |
$ 3 |
$ 2 |
$ 3 |
||||||
Pool - Freddie Mac settlement |
$ 10 |
$ 11 |
$ 11 |
$ 10 |
$ 11 |
$ 10 |
||||||
Reinsurance |
$ (12) |
$ (8) |
$ (7) |
$ (7) |
$ (8) |
$ (8) |
||||||
Other (3) |
$ 7 |
$ 7 |
$ 8 |
$ 8 |
$ 6 |
$ 6 |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
$ 228 |
$ 191 |
$ 168 |
$ 168 |
$ 146 |
$ 132 |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
$ 39 |
$ 33 |
$ 28 |
$ 25 |
$ 27 |
$ 24 |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ 11 |
$ 10 |
$ 9 |
$ 7 |
$ 9 |
$ 12 |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ 46 |
$ 43 |
$ 37 |
$ 31 |
$ 35 |
$ 38 |
||||||
Primary Average Claim Payment (thousands) (1) |
$ 45.9 |
$ 45.5 |
$ 45.8 |
$ 45.0 |
$ 47.4 |
$ 48.6 |
||||||
Flow |
$ 43.9 |
$ 43.4 |
$ 43.5 |
$ 44.6 |
$ 44.2 |
$ 45.1 |
||||||
Bulk |
$ 58.1 |
$ 57.8 |
$ 59.2 |
$ 47.3 |
$ 61.8 |
$ 63.3 |
||||||
Prime (620 & >) |
$ 44.1 |
$ 43.8 |
$ 43.7 |
$ 45.0 |
$ 44.7 |
$ 45.9 |
||||||
A minus (575 - 619) |
$ 43.9 |
$ 44.0 |
$ 43.3 |
$ 43.4 |
$ 47.8 |
$ 44.5 |
||||||
Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ 46.9 |
$ 42.3 |
$ 45.7 |
$ 46.0 |
$ 48.4 |
$ 53.6 |
||||||
Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ 59.8 |
$ 58.5 |
$ 63.1 |
$ 59.4 |
$ 62.1 |
$ 67.2 |
||||||
Reinsurance |
||||||||||||
% insurance inforce subject to reinsurance |
55.9% |
57.6% |
59.4% |
60.8% |
61.3% |
63.3% |
||||||
% Quarterly NIW subject to reinsurance |
93.0% |
91.6% |
90.1% |
87.4% |
85.2% |
97.9% |
||||||
Ceded premium written (millions) |
$ 26.6 |
$ 28.3 |
$ 32.5 |
$ 32.2 |
$ 31.3 |
$ 34.9 |
||||||
Ceding commissions (millions) |
$ 9.1 |
$ 9.6 |
$ 10.3 |
$ 10.4 |
$ 10.5 |
$ 12.0 |
||||||
Captive trust fund assets (millions) |
$ 240 |
$ 228 |
$ 211 |
$ 207 |
$ 201 |
$ 172 |
||||||
Direct Pool RIF (millions) |
||||||||||||
With aggregate loss limits |
$ 346 |
$ 338 |
$ 331 |
$ 303 |
$ 287 |
$ 282 |
||||||
Without aggregate loss limits |
$ 601 |
$ 570 |
$ 536 |
$ 505 |
$ 479 |
$ 456 |
||||||
Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation - Risk to Capital |
15.3:1 |
15.2:1 |
15.0:1 |
14.6:1 |
13.7:1 |
13.2:1 |
(7) |
|||||
MGIC Indemnity Corporation - Risk to Capital |
1.2:1 |
1.2:1 |
1.1:1 |
1.1:1 |
1.0:1 |
0.9:1 |
(7) |
|||||
Combined Insurance Companies - Risk to Capital |
17.6:1 |
17.3:1 |
17.0:1 |
16.4:1 |
15.4:1 |
14.8:1 |
(7) |
|||||
GAAP loss ratio (insurance operations only) (2) |
57.2% |
68.0% |
55.1% |
54.8% |
37.6% |
42.3% |
||||||
GAAP underwriting expense ratio (insurance operations only) |
15.7% |
14.4% |
14.9% |
13.9% |
16.4% |
15.0% |
||||||
Note: The FICO credit score for a loan with multiple borrowers is the lowest of the borrowers' "decision FICO scores." A borrower's "decision FICO score" is determined as follows: if there are three FICO scores available, the middle FICO score is used; if two FICO scores are available, the lower of the two is used; if only one FICO score is available, it is used. |
||
Note: The results of our operations in Australia are included in the financial statements in this document but the additional information in this document does not include our Australian operations, unless otherwise noted, which are immaterial. |
||
Note: Average claim paid may vary from period to period due to amounts associated with mitigation efforts. |
||
(1) |
In accordance with industry practice, loans approved by GSE and other automated underwriting (AU) systems under "doc waiver" programs that do not require verification of borrower income are classified by MGIC as "full doc." Based in part on information provided by the GSEs, MGIC estimates full doc loans of this type were approximately 4% of 2007 NIW. Information for other periods is not available. MGIC understands these AU systems grant such doc waivers for loans they judge to have higher credit quality. MGIC also understands that the GSEs terminated their "doc waiver" programs in the second half of 2008. Reduced documentation loans only appear in the reduced documentation category and do not appear in any of the other categories. |
|
(2) |
As calculated, does not reflect any effects due to premium deficiency. |
|
(3) |
Includes Australian operations |
|
(4) |
As of June 30, 2015, rescissions of coverage on approximately 430 loans had been voluntarily suspended, as we believed those loans could be covered by a settlement. |
|
(5) |
Refer to our risk factor titled "We are involved in legal proceedings and are subject to the risk of additional legal proceedings in the future" for information about our rescission settlements. |
|
(6) |
Q4 2014 and Q2 2015 excludes items associated with rescission settlements. |
|
(7) |
Preliminary |
Risk Factors
As used below, "we," "our" and "us" refer to
We may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and our returns may decrease as we are required to maintain more capital in order to maintain our eligibility.
Since 2008, substantially all of our insurance written has been for loans sold to
We expect that MGIC will be in compliance with the PMIERs, including the GSE Financial Requirements, when they become effective. This expectation is based on our interpretation of the GSE Financial Requirements and assumes that the risk in force and assets of MGIC's MIC subsidiary will be repatriated to MGIC and that we will receive substantially all of the benefit available under the PMIERs for our existing reinsurance transaction, upon the effectiveness of its restructure, which has been agreed between MGIC and the reinsurers, subject to final documentation. The effectiveness of the restructured transaction is subject to approval by the GSEs and the
If additional Available Assets are required, we believe that a portion of our holding company's
Factors that may negatively impact MGIC's ability to comply with the GSE Financial Requirements before their effective date include the following:
- The GSEs may not approve our restructured reinsurance transaction or they may not allow the amount of benefit we expect under the GSE Financial Requirements.
- We may not obtain regulatory authorization to transfer assets from MIC to MGIC to the extent we are assuming because regulators project higher losses than we project or require a level of capital be maintained in MIC higher than we are assuming.
- MGIC may not receive additional capital contributions from our holding company due to competing demands on the holding company resources, including for repayment of debt.
- Our future operating results may be negatively impacted by the matters discussed in the rest of these risk factors. Such matters could decrease our revenues, increase our losses or require the use of assets, thereby increasing our shortfall in Available Assets.
There can be no assurance that the GSEs will not make the GSE Financial Requirements more onerous in the future; in this regard, the PMIERs provide that the tables of factors that determine Minimum Required Assets will be updated every two years and may be updated more frequently to reflect changes in macroeconomic conditions or loan performance. The GSEs will provide notice 180 days prior to the effective date of table updates. In addition, the GSEs may amend the PMIERs at any time. If MGIC ceases to be eligible to insure loans purchased by one or both of the GSEs, it would significantly reduce the volume of our new business writings.
While on an overall basis, the amount of Available Assets we must hold in order to continue to insure GSE loans has increased under the PMIERs over what state regulation currently provides, reinsurance is one option we have to mitigate the effect of PMIERs on our returns. In this regard, see the first bullet point above.
The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance.
Alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:
- lenders using government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the FHA and VA,
- lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring,
- investors (including the GSEs) using risk mitigation techniques other than private mortgage insurance, such as obtaining insurance from non-mortgage insurers and engaging in credit-linked note transactions executed in the capital markets; using other risk mitigation techniques in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance coverage; or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement, and
- lenders originating mortgages using piggyback structures to avoid private mortgage insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage with a 10%, 15% or 20% loan-to-value ratio (referred to as 80-10-10, 80-15-5 or 80-20 loans, respectively) rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% loan-to-value ratio that has private mortgage insurance.
In the first quarter of 2015, the FHA accounted for 33.1% of all low down payment residential mortgages that were subject to FHA, VA or primary private mortgage insurance, up from 31.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014. In the past ten years, the FHA's share has been as low as 15.6% in 2006 and as high as 70.8% in 2009. Factors that influence the FHA's market share include relative underwriting guidelines, loan limits, and rates and fees of the FHA, VA, private mortgage insurers and the GSEs; flexibility for the FHA to establish new products as a result of federal legislation and programs; returns obtained by lenders for
In the first quarter of 2015, the VA accounted for 30.4% of all low down payment residential mortgages that were subject to FHA, VA or primary private mortgage insurance, its highest level in ten years and up from 29.1% in the fourth quarter of 2014. The VA's lowest market share in the past ten years was 5.4% in 2007. We believe that the VA's market share has been increasing because the VA offers 100% LTV loans and charges a one-time funding fee that can be included in the loan amount but no additional monthly expense, and because of an increase in the number of borrowers that are eligible for the VA's program.
Competition or changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues, reduce our premium yields and/or increase our losses.
Our private mortgage insurance competitors include:
Arch Mortgage Insurance Company ,Essent Guaranty, Inc. ,Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation ,National Mortgage Insurance Corporation ,Radian Guaranty Inc. , andUnited Guaranty Residential Insurance Company .
The level of competition within the private mortgage insurance industry is intense and is not expected to diminish. Price competition has been present for some time: in the third quarter of 2014, we reduced many of our standard lender-paid single premium rates to match competition; and in the fourth quarter of 2013, we reduced all of our standard borrower-paid monthly premium rates and most of our standard single premium rates to match competition. Currently, we are seeing price competition in the form of lender-paid single premium programs customized for individual lenders by using a rate card's authority to set premiums or adjust premiums on individual loans within a range of premiums. This has resulted in rates materially discounted from those on the standard rate card (i.e., one that does not use such authority). In
On
During 2014 and the first half of 2015, approximately 4% and 5%, respectively, of our new insurance written was for loans for which one lender was the original insured. Our relationships with our customers could be adversely affected by a variety of factors, including premium rates higher than can be obtained from competitors, tightening of and adherence to our underwriting requirements, which may result in our declining to insure some of the loans originated by our customers, and insurance rescissions that affect the customer. We have ongoing discussions with lenders who are significant customers regarding their objections to our rescissions.
In the past several years, we believe many lenders considered financial strength and compliance with the State Capital Requirements as important factors when selecting a mortgage insurer. Lenders may consider compliance with the GSE Financial Requirements important when selecting a mortgage insurer in the future. As noted above, we expect MGIC to be in compliance with the GSE Financial Requirements when they become effective and we expect MGIC's risk-to-capital ratio to continue to comply with the current State Capital Requirements discussed below. However, we cannot assure you that we will comply with such requirements or that we will comply with any revised State Capital Requirements proposed by the
We believe that financial strength ratings may be a significant consideration for participants seeking to secure credit enhancement in the non-GSE mortgage market, which includes most loans that are not "Qualified Mortgages" (for more information about "Qualified Mortgages," see our risk factor titled "Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses"). While this market has been limited since the financial crisis, it may grow in the future. The financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries are lower than those of some competitors and below investment grade levels; therefore, we may be competitively disadvantaged with some market participants. For each of MGIC and MIC, the financial strength rating from
If the GSEs no longer operate in their current capacities, for example, due to legislative or regulatory action, we may be forced to compete in a new marketplace in which financial strength ratings play a greater role. If we are unable to compete effectively in the current or any future markets as a result of the financial strength ratings assigned to our mortgage insurance subsidiaries, our future new insurance written could be negatively affected.
Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
Since 2008, substantially all of our insurance written has been for loans sold to
- the level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of the GSEs' charters (which may be changed by federal legislation), when private mortgage insurance is used as the required credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages,
- the amount of loan level price adjustments and guaranty fees (which result in higher costs to borrowers) that the GSEs assess on loans that require mortgage insurance,
- whether the GSEs influence the mortgage lender's selection of the mortgage insurer providing coverage and, if so, any transactions that are related to that selection,
- the underwriting standards that determine what loans are eligible for purchase by the GSEs, which can affect the quality of the risk insured by the mortgage insurer and the availability of mortgage loans,
- the terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the cancellation thresholds established by law,
- the programs established by the GSEs intended to avoid or mitigate loss on insured mortgages and the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must implement such programs,
- the terms that the GSEs require to be included in mortgage insurance policies for loans that they purchase,
- the extent to which the GSEs intervene in mortgage insurers' rescission practices or rescission settlement practices with lenders. For additional information, see our risk factor titled "We are involved in legal proceedings and are subject to the risk of additional legal proceedings in the future," and
- the maximum loan limits of the GSEs in comparison to those of the FHA and other investors.
The FHFA is the conservator of the GSEs and has the authority to control and direct their operations. The increased role that the federal government has assumed in the residential housing finance system through the GSE conservatorship may increase the likelihood that the business practices of the GSEs change in ways that have a material adverse effect on us and that the charters of the GSEs are changed by new federal legislation. The financial reform legislation that was passed in
Dodd-Frank requires lenders to consider a borrower's ability to repay a home loan before extending credit.
Dodd-Frank requires a securitizer to retain at least 5% of the risk associated with mortgage loans that are securitized, and in some cases the retained risk may be allocated between the securitizer and the lender that originated the loan. The final rule implementing that requirement will become effective on
We estimate that for our new risk written in 2014 and the first half of 2015, 83% and 85%, respectively, was for loans that would have met the CFPB's general QM definition and, therefore, the QRM definition. We estimate that approximately 99% of our new risk written in each of 2014 and the first half of 2015, was for loans that would have met the temporary category in CFPB's QM definition. Changes in the treatment of GSE-guaranteed mortgage loans in the regulations defining QM and QRM, or changes in the conservatorship or capital support provided to the GSEs by the
The GSEs have different loan purchase programs that allow different levels of mortgage insurance coverage. Under the "charter coverage" program, on certain loans lenders may choose a mortgage insurance coverage percentage that is less than the GSEs' "standard coverage" and only the minimum required by the GSEs' charters, with the GSEs paying a lower price for such loans. In 2014 and the first half of 2015, nearly all of our volume was on loans with GSE standard or higher coverage. We charge higher premium rates for higher coverage percentages. To the extent lenders selling loans to the GSEs in the future choose lower coverage for loans that we insure, our revenues would be reduced and we could experience other adverse effects.
The benefit of our net operating loss carryforwards may become substantially limited.
As of
While we have adopted a shareholder rights agreement to minimize the likelihood of transactions in our stock resulting in an ownership change, future issuances of equity-linked securities or transactions in our stock and equity-linked securities that may not be within our control may cause us to experience an ownership change. If we experience an ownership change, we may not be able to fully utilize our net operating losses, resulting in additional income taxes and a reduction in our shareholders' equity.
We are involved in legal proceedings and are subject to the risk of additional legal proceedings in the future.
Before paying a claim, we review the loan and servicing files to determine the appropriateness of the claim amount. All of our insurance policies provide that we can reduce or deny a claim if the servicer did not comply with its obligations under our insurance policy, including the requirement to mitigate our loss by performing reasonable loss mitigation efforts or, for example, diligently pursuing a foreclosure or bankruptcy relief in a timely manner. We call such reduction of claims submitted to us "curtailments." In 2014 and the first half of 2015, curtailments reduced our average claim paid by approximately 6.7% and 7.4%, respectively. After we pay a claim, servicers and insureds sometimes object to our curtailments and other adjustments. We review these objections if they are sent to us within 90 days after the claim was paid.
When reviewing the loan file associated with a claim, we may determine that we have the right to rescind coverage on the loan. In recent quarters, approximately 5% of claims received in a quarter have been resolved by rescissions, down from the peak of approximately 28% in the first half of 2009. We estimate rescissions mitigated our incurred losses by approximately
If the insured disputes our right to rescind coverage, we generally engage in discussions in an attempt to settle the dispute. As part of those discussions, we may voluntarily suspend rescissions we believe may be part of a settlement. Certain settlements require GSE approval. The GSEs have consented to our settlement agreements with two customers, one of which is Countrywide, as discussed below, and have rejected other settlement agreements. We have reached and implemented settlement agreements that do not require GSE approval, but they have not been material in the aggregate.
If we are unable to reach a settlement, the outcome of a dispute ultimately would be determined by legal proceedings. Under our policies in effect prior to
Until a liability associated with a settlement agreement or litigation becomes probable and can be reasonably estimated, we consider our claim payment or rescission resolved for financial reporting purposes even though discussions and legal proceedings have been initiated and are ongoing. Under ASC 450-20, an estimated loss from such discussions and proceedings is accrued for only if we determine that the loss is probable and can be reasonably estimated.
In
In
On
The estimated impact of the Agreements has been recorded in our financial statements. The pending arbitration proceedings concerning the loans covered by the Agreements have been dismissed, the mutual releases regarding loans for which consent was received have become effective and the litigation between the parties regarding loans covered by the Agreements has been dismissed. Consent was received for approximately 89% of the dollar amount of exposure on loans covered by the Agreement with CHL; the holders of loans that did not consent retain their rights to assert claims with respect to such loans.
The estimated impact of other probable settlements has also been recorded in our financial statements. The estimated impact that we recorded for other probable settlements is our best estimate of our loss from these matters. We estimate that as of
The flow policies at issue with Countrywide are in the same form as the flow policies that we used with all of our customers during the period covered by the Agreements, and the bulk policies at issue vary from one another, but are generally similar to those used in the majority of our
We are involved in discussions and consensual proceedings with insureds with respect to our claims paying practices. In addition, holders of loans that did not consent to the Agreement with CHL may bring legal proceedings against MGIC with respect to such loans. Although it is reasonably possible that when these discussions or proceedings are completed we will not prevail in all cases, we are unable to make a reasonable estimate or range of estimates of the potential liability. We estimate the maximum exposure associated with these discussions and proceedings to be approximately
The estimates of our maximum exposure referred to above do not include interest or consequential or exemplary damages.
Consumers continue to bring lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and settlement service providers. Mortgage insurers, including MGIC, have been involved in litigation alleging violations of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA. MGIC's settlement of class action litigation against it under RESPA became final in
In 2013, the
We received requests from the
We also received a request in
Various regulators, including the CFPB, state insurance commissioners and state attorneys general may bring actions seeking various forms of relief in connection with alleged violations of RESPA. The insurance law provisions of many states prohibit paying for the referral of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition. While we believe our practices are in conformity with applicable laws and regulations, it is not possible to predict the eventual scope, duration or outcome of any such reviews or investigations nor is it possible to predict their effect on us or the mortgage insurance industry.
We are subject to comprehensive, detailed regulation by state insurance departments. These regulations are principally designed for the protection of our insured policyholders, rather than for the benefit of investors. Although their scope varies, state insurance laws generally grant broad supervisory powers to agencies or officials to examine insurance companies and enforce rules or exercise discretion affecting almost every significant aspect of the insurance business. State insurance regulatory authorities could take actions, including changes in capital requirements, that could have a material adverse effect on us. In addition, the CFPB may issue additional rules or regulations, which may materially affect our business.
In
A non-insurance subsidiary of our holding company is a shareholder of the corporation that operates the Mortgage Electronic Registration System ("MERS"). Our subsidiary, as a shareholder of MERS, had been named as a defendant (along with MERS and its other shareholders) in eight lawsuits asserting various causes of action arising from allegedly improper recording and foreclosure activities by MERS. As of
In addition to the matters described above, we are involved in other legal proceedings in the ordinary course of business. In our opinion, based on the facts known at this time, the ultimate resolution of these ordinary course legal proceedings will not have a material adverse effect on our financial position or results of operations.
Resolution of our dispute with the
As previously disclosed, the
On
We filed a petition with the U.S. Tax Court contesting most of the
Because we establish loss reserves only upon a loan default rather than based on estimates of our ultimate losses on risk in force, losses may have a disproportionate adverse effect on our earnings in certain periods.
In accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in
Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves.
When we establish reserves, we estimate the ultimate loss on delinquent loans using estimated claim rates and claim amounts. The estimated claim rates and claim amounts represent our best estimates of what we will actually pay on the loans in default as of the reserve date and incorporate anticipated mitigation from rescissions. We rescind coverage on loans and deny claims in cases where we believe our policy allows us to do so. Therefore, when establishing our loss reserves, we do not include additional loss reserves that would reflect a possible adverse development from ongoing dispute resolution proceedings regarding rescissions and denials unless we have determined that a loss is probable and can be reasonably estimated. For more information regarding our legal proceedings, see our risk factor titled "We are involved in legal proceedings and are subject to the risk of additional legal proceedings in the future."
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires judgment by management. The actual amount of the claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could be adversely affected by several factors, including a deterioration of regional or national economic conditions. The deterioration in conditions may include an increase in unemployment, reducing borrowers' income and thus their ability to make mortgage payments, and a decrease in housing values, which may affect borrower willingness to continue to make mortgage payments when the value of the home is below the mortgage balance. Changes to our estimates could have a material impact on our future results, even in a stable economic environment. In addition, historically, losses incurred have followed a seasonal trend in which the second half of the year has weaker credit performance than the first half, with higher new default notice activity and a lower cure rate.
We rely on our management team and our business could be harmed if we are unable to retain qualified personnel or successfully develop and/or recruit their replacements.
Our industry is undergoing a fundamental shift following the mortgage crisis: long-standing competitors have gone out of business and two newly capitalized start-ups that are not encumbered with a portfolio of pre-crisis mortgages have been formed. Former executives from other mortgage insurers have joined these two new competitors. In addition, in 2014, a worldwide insurer and reinsurer with mortgage insurance operations in
Our reinsurance agreement with unaffiliated reinsurers allows each reinsurer to terminate such reinsurer's portion of the transactions on a run-off basis if during any six month period prior to
Loan modification and other similar programs may not continue to provide benefits to us and our losses on loans that re-default can be higher than what we would have paid had the loan not been modified.
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, the federal government, including through the
One loan modification program is the Home Affordable Modification Program ("HAMP"). We are aware of approximately 5,440 loans in our primary delinquent inventory at
The GSEs' Home Affordable Refinance Program ("HARP"), allows borrowers who are not delinquent but who may not otherwise be able to refinance their loans under the current GSE underwriting standards, to refinance their loans. We allow HARP refinances on loans that we insure, regardless of whether the loan meets our current underwriting standards, and we account for the refinance as a loan modification (even where there is a new lender) rather than new insurance written. As of
In each of 2014 and the first half of 2015, approximately 16% of our primary cures were the result of modifications, with HAMP accounting for approximately 67% of those modifications in 2014 and 68% in the first half of 2015. Although the HAMP and HARP programs have been extended through
We cannot determine the total benefit we may derive from loan modification programs, particularly given the uncertainty around the re-default rates for defaulted loans that have been modified. Our loss reserves do not account for potential re-defaults of current loans. Re-defaults can result in losses for us that could be greater than we would have paid had the loan not been modified. Eligibility under certain loan modification programs can also adversely affect us by creating an incentive for borrowers who are able to make their mortgage payments to become delinquent in an attempt to obtain the benefits of a modification. New notices of delinquency increase our incurred losses.
If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues.
The factors that affect the volume of low down payment mortgage originations include:
- restrictions on mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards, liquidity issues and risk-retention requirements associated with non-QRM loans affecting lenders,
- the level of home mortgage interest rates and the deductibility of mortgage interest for income tax purposes,
- the health of the domestic economy as well as conditions in regional and local economies and the level of consumer confidence,
- housing affordability,
- population trends, including the rate of household formation,
- the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect whether refinanced loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance, and
- government housing policy encouraging loans to first-time homebuyers.
A decline in the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations could decrease demand for mortgage insurance, decrease our new insurance written and reduce our revenues. For other factors that could decrease the demand for mortgage insurance, see our risk factor titled "The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance."
State capital requirements may prevent us from continuing to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis.
The insurance laws of 16 jurisdictions, including
At
At
The NAIC previously announced that it plans to revise the minimum capital and surplus requirements for mortgage insurers that are provided for in its Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act. A working group of state regulators is drafting the revisions, although no date has been established by which the NAIC must propose revisions to such requirements. Depending on the scope of revisions made by the NAIC, MGIC may be prevented from writing new business in the jurisdictions adopting such revisions.
If MGIC fails to meet the State Capital Requirements of
Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in the value of borrowers' homes from their value at the time their loans closed may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing.
Losses result from events that reduce a borrower's ability or willingness to continue to make mortgage payments, such as unemployment, and whether the home of a borrower who defaults on his mortgage can be sold for an amount that will cover unpaid principal and interest and the expenses of the sale. In general, favorable economic conditions reduce the likelihood that borrowers will lack sufficient income to pay their mortgages and also favorably affect the value of homes, thereby reducing and in some cases even eliminating a loss from a mortgage default. A deterioration in economic conditions, including an increase in unemployment, generally increases the likelihood that borrowers will not have sufficient income to pay their mortgages and can also adversely affect housing values, which in turn can influence the willingness of borrowers with sufficient resources to make mortgage payments to do so when the mortgage balance exceeds the value of the home. Housing values may decline even absent a deterioration in economic conditions due to declines in demand for homes, which in turn may result from changes in buyers' perceptions of the potential for future appreciation, restrictions on and the cost of mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards, higher interest rates generally or changes to the deductibility of mortgage interest for income tax purposes, or other factors. The residential mortgage market in
The mix of business we write affects the likelihood of losses occurring, our Minimum Required Assets for purposes of the GSE Financial Requirements, and our premium yields.
Even when housing values are stable or rising, mortgages with certain characteristics have higher probabilities of claims. These characteristics include loans with loan-to-value ratios over 95% (or in certain markets that have experienced declining housing values, over 90%), FICO credit scores below 620, limited underwriting, including limited borrower documentation, or higher total debt-to-income ratios, as well as loans having combinations of higher risk factors. As of
The Minimum Required Assets for purposes of the GSE Financial Requirements are, in part, a function of the direct risk-in-force and the risk profile of the loans we insure, considering loan-to-value ratio, credit score, vintage, HARP status and delinquency status; and whether the loans were insured under lender paid mortgage insurance policies or other policies that are not subject to automatic termination consistent with the Homeowners Protection Act's requirements for borrower paid mortgage insurance. Therefore, if our direct risk-in-force increases through increases in new insurance written, or if our mix of business changes to include loans with higher loan-to-value ratios or lower credit scores, for example, or if we insure more loans under lender paid mortgage insurance policies, we will be required to hold more Available Assets in order to maintain GSE eligibility.
From time to time, in response to market conditions, we change the types of loans that we insure and the requirements under which we insure them. In 2013, we liberalized our underwriting guidelines somewhat, in part through aligning most of our underwriting requirements with
As noted above in our risk factor titled "We may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and our returns may decrease as we are required to maintain more capital in order to maintain our eligibility," we have recently increased the percentage of our business from lender-paid single premium policies. Depending on the actual life of a single premium policy and its premium rate relative to that of a monthly premium policy, a single premium policy may generate more or less premium than a monthly premium policy over its life. Currently, we expect to receive less lifetime premium from a new lender-paid single premium policy than we would from a new borrower-paid monthly premium policy.
As noted above in our risk factor titled "We may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and our returns may decrease as we are required to maintain more capital in order to maintain our eligibility," we entered into a quota share reinsurance transaction with a group of unaffiliated reinsurers that we anticipate will be restructured. Although the transaction, as currently structured and as proposed to be restructured, reduces our premiums, it has a lesser impact on our overall results, as losses ceded under the transaction reduce our losses incurred and the ceding commission we receive reduces our underwriting expenses.
The circumstances in which we are entitled to rescind coverage have narrowed for insurance we have written in recent years. During the second quarter of 2012, we began writing a portion of our new insurance under an endorsement to our then existing master policy (the "Gold Cert Endorsement"), which limited our ability to rescind coverage compared to that master policy. The Gold Cert Endorsement is filed as Exhibit 99.7 to our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended
To comply with requirements of the GSEs, in 2014 we introduced a new master policy. Our rescission rights under our new master policy are comparable to those under our previous master policy, as modified by the Gold Cert Endorsement, but may be further narrowed if the GSEs permit modifications to them. Our new master policy is filed as Exhibit 99.19 to our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended
As of
Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our underwriting and pricing models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment income will be adequate to compensate for actual losses even under our current underwriting requirements. We do, however, believe that given the various changes in our underwriting requirements that were effective beginning in the first quarter of 2008, our insurance written beginning in the second half of 2008 will generate underwriting profits.
The premiums we charge may not be adequate to compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a result any inadequacy could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.
We set premiums at the time a policy is issued based on our expectations regarding likely performance over the long-term. Our premiums are subject to approval by state regulatory agencies, which can delay or limit our ability to increase our premiums. Generally, we cannot cancel mortgage insurance coverage or adjust renewal premiums during the life of a mortgage insurance policy. As a result, higher than anticipated claims generally cannot be offset by premium increases on policies in force or mitigated by our non-renewal or cancellation of insurance coverage. The premiums we charge, and the associated investment income, may not be adequate to compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the insurance coverage provided to customers. An increase in the number or size of claims, compared to what we anticipate, could adversely affect our results of operations or financial condition.
We continue to experience elevated losses on our 2005-2008 books and our current expectation is that the incurred losses from these books, although declining, will continue to generate a material portion of our total incurred losses for a number of years. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on general economic conditions, including unemployment, and the direction of home prices, which in turn will be influenced by general economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or general economic conditions with confidence, there is uncertainty surrounding what our ultimate losses will be on each of our books, including our 2005-2008 books.
We are susceptible to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans that we insure.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. Over the last several years, the mortgage loan servicing industry has experienced consolidation. The resulting reduction in the number of servicers could lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. In addition, the increases in the number of delinquent mortgage loans requiring servicing since 2007 have strained the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to undertake mitigation efforts that could help limit our losses, and have resulted in an increasing amount of delinquent loan servicing being transferred to specialty servicers. The transfer of servicing can cause a disruption in the servicing of delinquent loans. Future housing market conditions could lead to additional increases in delinquencies. Managing a substantially higher volume of non-performing loans could lead to increased disruptions in the servicing of mortgages.
Changes in interest rates, house prices or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements may change the length of time that our policies remain in force.
The premium from a single premium policy is collected upfront and generally earned over the estimated life of the policy. In contrast, premiums from a monthly premium policy are received and earned each month over the life of the policy. In each year, most of our premiums received are from insurance that has been written in prior years. As a result, the length of time insurance remains in force, which is also generally referred to as persistency, is a significant determinant of our revenues. Future premiums on our monthly paid insurance policies in force represent a material portion of our claims paying resources and a low persistency rate will reduce those future premiums. In contrast, a higher than expected persistency rate will decrease the profitability from single premium policies because they will remain in force longer than was estimated when the policies were written.
Our persistency rate was 80.4% at
Our persistency rate is primarily affected by the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on our insurance in force, which affects the vulnerability of the insurance in force to refinancing. Our persistency rate is also affected by mortgage insurance cancellation policies of mortgage investors along with the current value of the homes underlying the mortgages in the insurance in force.
Your ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise or if the holders of our outstanding convertible debt convert that debt into shares of our common stock.
As noted above under our risk factor titled "We may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and our returns may decrease as we are required to maintain more capital in order to maintain our eligibility," we expect to meet the GSE Financial Requirements upon their effectiveness. However, there can be no assurance that we would not seek to issue non-dilutive debt capital or to raise additional equity capital to manage our capital position under the GSE Financial Requirements or for other purposes. Any future issuance of equity securities may dilute your ownership interest in our company. In addition, the market price of our common stock could decline as a result of sales of a large number of shares or similar securities in the market or the perception that such sales could occur.
We have
Our debt obligations materially exceed our holding company cash and investments.
At
The Senior Notes, Convertible Senior Notes and Convertible Junior Debentures are obligations of our holding company,
We could be adversely affected if personal information on consumers that we maintain is improperly disclosed and our information technology systems may become outdated and we may not be able to make timely modifications to support our products and services.
We rely on the efficient and uninterrupted operation of complex information technology systems. All information technology systems are potentially vulnerable to damage or interruption from a variety of sources. As part of our business, we maintain large amounts of personal information on consumers. While we believe we have appropriate information security policies and systems to prevent unauthorized disclosure, there can be no assurance that unauthorized disclosure, either through the actions of third parties or employees, will not occur. Unauthorized disclosure could adversely affect our reputation and expose us to material claims for damages.
In addition, we are in the process of upgrading certain of our information systems that have been in place for a number of years. The implementation of these technological improvements is complex, expensive and time consuming. If we fail to timely and successfully implement the new technology systems, or if the systems do not operate as expected, it could have an adverse impact on our business, business prospects and results of operations.
Our Australian operations may suffer significant losses.
We began international operations in
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SOURCE
Investor Contact: Michael J. Zimmerman, Investor Relations, (414) 347-6596, mike_zimmerman@mgic.com; Media Contact: Katie Monfre, Corporate Communications, (414) 347-2650, katie_monfre@mgic.com